No dictatorship lasts forever, and all dictators are mortal. Putin, due to his age alone, may "kick the bucket" very soon, although, unlike ordinary Russians, he can afford proper medical care. The events in Syria are clearly a significant blow to his nervous system and 1/9
heart health. Such a scenario is now easy to imagine within Russia itself. The fall of Assad created a power vacuum in Syria, and now several countries are advancing their interests. Sunnis backed by Turkey, Kurds supported by the U.S., factions supported by Israel, Iran and 2/9
remnants of Hezbollah, along with the remains of Russian units — all of it has become a chaotic mix. It's far too early to speak of an end to the crisis. Stability in Syria will not return soon. Over the years, Assad destroyed the moderate opposition, leaving only the most 3/9
extreme radicals. After so many years of brutality, it's highly likely that the oppressed will now become the oppressors. The footage from Syrian prisons is horrifying, but this could be repeated if a new dictatorship is established or if the country slides into another civil 4/9
war. The leaders of the rebel group "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" are radical Islamists, and it's hard to say how much their promises can be trusted. However, what is happening in Syria may also await Russia. Putin has spent years crushing the moderate opposition, and when his 5/9
power begins to collapse, radicals will inevitably seize the opportunity to make their move in the ensuing power vacuum. The war is flooding Russia with cheap weapons, which are being sold illegally by soldiers themselves. The Caucasus remains restless, and Kadyrov's 6/9
position has also become shaky. People are taking him less seriously, and they no longer fear his threats. Kadyrov's men recently lost a minor "battle" over the Wildberries marketplace. Other Chechen clans and Dagestanis have noticed this and are ready to begin re-dividing 7/9
businesses and spheres of influence. Violence is inevitable. By destroying anyone who could have helped the country recover from a post-war crisis after Russia loses and its economy fully collapses, 8/9
Putin has ensured that the country will fall into chaos, paving the way for the most radical opponents to rise to power. 9/9
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According to BND estimates, last year Russia’s military spending may have amounted to almost half of the state budget and around 10% of the country’s GDP. According to the German intelligence service, Russia is spending significantly more on the war and its armed forces
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than it has declared in recent years. Since the start of the war against Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s defense budget has increased sharply every year. In addition, Russia’s interpretation of “defense spending” differs significantly from the NATO definition, German
intelligence officials note. A comprehensive analysis of budget data conducted by BND shows that Russia’s defense budget in recent years was 66% higher than officially reported. Unaccounted expenditures include, for example, construction projects of the Ministry of Defense,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained why he sharply criticized Europe at the World Economic Forum in Davos. He made these remarks during a meeting with journalists in Kyiv, according to a correspondent from European Pravda. Zelensky said he had grounds for critical
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statements toward Europe after a lack of funding led to a shortage of air defense missiles, allowing Russia to strike Kyiv’s energy infrastructure. Zelensky did not deny that his speech may have sounded overly harsh from European capitals and explained this by saying that
Ukraine and the rest of Europe live in different information spaces. He also acknowledged that the differences are not only informational but also emotional in how events are perceived. The president explained that his Davos speech was preceded by heavy strikes on energy
Putin is losing the game he himself started. His bet was placed on a return to the world of the 19th and early 20th centuries - a world of empires and spheres of influence, where Europe, America, Africa, and Asia are divided among several “superpowers.” In Putin’s vision of
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the world, there were supposed to be three such powers: the United States, Russia, and China. However, the real transformation of the global order is unfolding in a completely different way. The key failure is Ukraine. At the end of the fourth year of war, Russia has still
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been unable to subjugate it. The army is visibly degrading, human and technological resources are being exhausted, the economy is held together by military spending and gray schemes, and the state increasingly resembles an overextended empire losing its ability to govern
3/19
Within NATO, the possibility of conducting a special joint mission in Greenland is being considered in order to accommodate the interests of US President Donald Trump. This week, the US president once again stated that he wants Greenland. Military intervention is not being 1/8
ruled out. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen previously said that this would mean the end of the Alliance if the United States were to begin military action against her country. On Thursday morning, the 32 ambassadors of the Alliance gathered for their weekly meeting. 2/8
It took place in a "calm atmosphere." Denmark raised the Greenland issue in a "positive and forward-looking manner," NOS insiders reported. The US ambassador to NATO, Whitaker, also reportedly spoke in a conciliatory tone. As became clear during the meeting, almost all 3/8
Russia has once again staged a media stunt with the story about a drone attack on Putin’s residence. In the Novgorod region no one heard air raid sirens, yet according to Lavrov, 91 drones were launched from Ukraine and all of
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them were shot down. There is not a single video and not a single piece of evidence. Why is this needed? This entire performance was staged specifically for Trump. Putin personally called the American president and told him about it. Russia has long convinced Trump that it
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is Zelensky together with the “warmongering shadow government of Europe” who allegedly do not want the war to end. This show was played out so that Ukraine would be blamed for the failure of peace talks. Unfortunately, with Trump, this works. Meanwhile, Lavrov declares that
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Daily strikes by Ukrainian drones and missiles on Russian oil depots, warehouses and refineries have created an image in the information space of a “leaky” Russian air defense system. This image sharply contrasts with what Russian propaganda had been instilling in its audience🧵
for decades, namely the idea of an “impenetrable shield” capable, according to Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, of intercepting up to 97 percent of targets. The reality of a full scale war has proven far more complex. Ukraine has not managed to destroy Russian air defense as a
single integrated system, but it has succeeded in exposing its real limits. As analysis by the Royal United Services Institute shows, the strength of Russian air defense depends not only on missiles and radars, but also on industry, logistics and the ability to replenish losses