Jompy Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024 22 tweets 10 min read Read on X
1/ We're finally there! A major Russian storage base is practically empty of any equipment! A thread on the newer footage of the 1295th Central Tank Reserve Base 🧵 Image
2/ Before continuing, check out @CovertCabal's video on the 1295th!
3/ First of all, this thread is almost more an analysis of a pile of junk than a storage base. And before anyone gets picky, I said a MAJOR storage base. You can see that several minor bases are already empty since a while ago. Image
4/ That said, I alreayd had high hopes for a long time that the 1295th would win the prize:
5/ If you look at the prewar footage from Google Earth, only the highlated parts still stored equipment, everything else were scrapped hulls. Image
7/ As you can see, the stored equipment dropped pretty fast as soon as the war started. Image
8/ It mostly stored old stuff like T-54/55s, T-62, BMP-1s, BRDM-2s, and even BTR-50s! Tho also 136 T-80s. Image
9/ You can see the evolution of the spots over these almost three years: Image
Image
Image
Image
10/ Image
Image
Image
Image
11/ Image
Image
Image
Image
12/ And you can also note that some equipment was cannibalized, and the rest of scrapped armor was moved to the huge scrapyard in the eastern part of the base. They keep demolishing to atoms junk placed there. Image
Image
Image
Image
13/ By now, all that remains are maybe 3 tanks, 23 BMP-1s and 4 BRDM-2s. And even most of those might be scrap, as the snow makes it very difficult to be sure about the condition of their hulls. Image
Image
Image
Image
14/ Hell, if you take a closer look you can notice they even moved the two broken BTRs stored next to the ARVs and cannibalized BRDM-2s. Image
Image
15/ Another interesting thing is that, while more than half of the tanks stored here were the oldest types, many of them were kept in good condition with dry air storage systems. Image
16/ And also that, as I also mentioned in a thread about ARVs, these aren't being pulled out from storage.
17/ At the same time we barely see any T-55s in Ukraine, despite more than half probably removed from storage by now. I think they're instead being mostly converted to BTS-4 ARVs, as they're based in T-54/55 chassis. Otherwise, where would those come from?
18/ In summary, this base is practically done. Maybe 1-2 more months until it is ENTIRELY depleted, but it doesn't really matter at this point. This is just a sign of a bigger problem for Russia. It may have been the smallest major storage base, but... Image
19/ a major storage base nonetheless. The more bases are emptier, the more they have to pull out from other bases. Image
20/ So far I've noticed a trend of about ~20 tanks and ~20-30 BMPs removed from each major storage base per month, and this will only accelerate until all that remains is cannibalized equipment. Image
21/ And as Covert said, the 2456th/103rd is the next one this weekend. Stay tuned for more content! Image
22/ As usual, big thanks to @CovertCabal and @HighMarsed, and also to the rest of the crew like @waffentraeger, @Ath3neN0ctu4, @AS_22im, @Rebel44CZ, @UAControlMap and many more!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jompy

Jompy Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Jonpy99

Nov 6
1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s. T-72 and T-90s and specifics on the industry will come in the second part. Image
2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology:
Read 87 tweets
Oct 30
Lyman looking as bad as Pokrovsk and Kupyansk.
There's one fundamental reason for everything that we're seeing lately, and it's been in the making for 2 years already: Zelensky & co refusing to understand that this is a war of survival and not enacting a proper mobilization. Corruption, incompetence, political interests...
Call it whatever you want, but at some point it's not even Syrskiy's fault anymore. YOU CAN'T HOLD GROUND WITHOUT INFANTRY. Everything and everywhere is atrociously undermanned.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 8
Since some people are wondering how many of the "poor" and "worse" tanks can ever be brought back to service, let me explain it once more: ALL OF THEM. It's just a matter of money and time, and how willing the Kremlin is to waste its assets. Image
Take for example the 2456th tank storage base. The main facility is the one already known, but to the right there's the old scrapyard. Right when the war started they were scrapping T-62s and 64s there, but they stopped for obvious reasons: Image
Image
Image
Image
We included this tanks in our count, as explained by @CovertCabal in his video about the 2456th, because the ones remaning weren't yet scrapped, tho they're in a terrible state. Image
Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 8
Thanks to the kind benefactor we observe that in 3-4 months things have changed a lot for the Russian tank reserve:
- Overall tanks have dropped from 3,106 to 2,478.
- More specifically, T-72As, which previously stand almost the same as prewar, have dropped from 900 to just 461. Image
Even at bases which previously hadn't seen abrely any tank drawdown like the 2544th, which also has T-62s, T-72As are being pulled out like crazy. Image
Image
Image
No surprise, considering other recent developments linked to this one, which are what allowed us to suspect in the first place T-72As were fastly being removed from storage bases:
Read 9 tweets
Oct 2
So we all were wrong, Russia is in fact modernizing T-90As into T-90Ms. And I'm very happy to be proven wrong, as this is good news for Ukraine.
Only question now is how many T-90As they had in the first place, how many T-90Ms are actually made from scratch and how long the tank stockpiles will last, considering they already going for T-72As.
To clarify: this doesn't mean Russia doesn't produce T-90Ms from scratch. In fact T-90A refurbs are probably but a tiny share of the total producion. Among other things, because barely 200 T-90As were produced.
Read 4 tweets
Aug 13
1/ Sort 🧵about the 6018th: while there's still no new decent footage of this major storage base, a closer look at a recent update on Copernicus (Sentinel-2) appears to show a lot of naked ground on the spot where there used to be a lot of the remaining (poorly conserved) armor. Image
Image
Image
Image
2/ After mostly emptying out the 6018th earlier in the war, in recent times they've come back to pick up the remains.
3/ I previously speculated that these base probably has seen, at the vary least, most or all of their remaining rusty T-80s and better preserved BMP-1/2/3s taken in recent months. We'll just have to wait until better proof of it. Image
Image
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(