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Dec 11, 2024 22 tweets 10 min read Read on X
1/ We're finally there! A major Russian storage base is practically empty of any equipment! A thread on the newer footage of the 1295th Central Tank Reserve Base 🧵 Image
2/ Before continuing, check out @CovertCabal's video on the 1295th!
3/ First of all, this thread is almost more an analysis of a pile of junk than a storage base. And before anyone gets picky, I said a MAJOR storage base. You can see that several minor bases are already empty since a while ago. Image
4/ That said, I alreayd had high hopes for a long time that the 1295th would win the prize:
5/ If you look at the prewar footage from Google Earth, only the highlated parts still stored equipment, everything else were scrapped hulls. Image
7/ As you can see, the stored equipment dropped pretty fast as soon as the war started. Image
8/ It mostly stored old stuff like T-54/55s, T-62, BMP-1s, BRDM-2s, and even BTR-50s! Tho also 136 T-80s. Image
9/ You can see the evolution of the spots over these almost three years: Image
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12/ And you can also note that some equipment was cannibalized, and the rest of scrapped armor was moved to the huge scrapyard in the eastern part of the base. They keep demolishing to atoms junk placed there. Image
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13/ By now, all that remains are maybe 3 tanks, 23 BMP-1s and 4 BRDM-2s. And even most of those might be scrap, as the snow makes it very difficult to be sure about the condition of their hulls. Image
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14/ Hell, if you take a closer look you can notice they even moved the two broken BTRs stored next to the ARVs and cannibalized BRDM-2s. Image
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15/ Another interesting thing is that, while more than half of the tanks stored here were the oldest types, many of them were kept in good condition with dry air storage systems. Image
16/ And also that, as I also mentioned in a thread about ARVs, these aren't being pulled out from storage.
17/ At the same time we barely see any T-55s in Ukraine, despite more than half probably removed from storage by now. I think they're instead being mostly converted to BTS-4 ARVs, as they're based in T-54/55 chassis. Otherwise, where would those come from?
18/ In summary, this base is practically done. Maybe 1-2 more months until it is ENTIRELY depleted, but it doesn't really matter at this point. This is just a sign of a bigger problem for Russia. It may have been the smallest major storage base, but... Image
19/ a major storage base nonetheless. The more bases are emptier, the more they have to pull out from other bases. Image
20/ So far I've noticed a trend of about ~20 tanks and ~20-30 BMPs removed from each major storage base per month, and this will only accelerate until all that remains is cannibalized equipment. Image
21/ And as Covert said, the 2456th/103rd is the next one this weekend. Stay tuned for more content! Image
22/ As usual, big thanks to @CovertCabal and @HighMarsed, and also to the rest of the crew like @waffentraeger, @Ath3neN0ctu4, @AS_22im, @Rebel44CZ, @UAControlMap and many more!

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More from @Jonpy99

Aug 13
1/ Sort 🧵about the 6018th: while there's still no new decent footage of this major storage base, a closer look at a recent update on Copernicus (Sentinel-2) appears to show a lot of naked ground on the spot where there used to be a lot of the remaining (poorly conserved) armor. Image
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2/ After mostly emptying out the 6018th earlier in the war, in recent times they've come back to pick up the remains.
3/ I previously speculated that these base probably has seen, at the vary least, most or all of their remaining rusty T-80s and better preserved BMP-1/2/3s taken in recent months. We'll just have to wait until better proof of it. Image
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Read 8 tweets
Jul 24
It would appear whatever stock of T-72Bs held UVZ at their own facilities, is now exhausted, as the Russians have restarted to take T-72Bs stored at the 1311th base to be refurbished at that factory. The stock probably won't last long, I estimate they pull ~20 per month.
Also, unless I'm seriously mistaken with the count/IDs, there are no more T-80BVs at the 1311th. By now it's likely there are no stored T-80s left at all (possibly the ones remaining at the 22nd are all T-80UDs).
Would need a recent image of the 6018th to prove it, but unfortunately that base gets no coverage at all as of lately. This would also point to Omsktransmash being able to quickly work through its backlog of T-80s, similar to what I already analyzed in previous BTRZ threads.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 14
Based on recent signs at major tank storage bases like the 349th that hold T-72As, it appears Russia is prepping them to bring them back to service.
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Read 6 tweets
Jun 26
1/ Time for the second BTRZ thread! This time we’ll take a look into the state of BMP refurbishment and production rate. Image
2/ Here’s the first thread about BTRZs:
3/ So, before taking a look into the facilities and their capabilities, we have to consider that for the last year Russia has decisively switched tactics to infantry and light vehicles intensive ones.
Read 61 tweets
Jun 25
1/ Time to review Russian Armor Repair Plants (BTRZs)! Been a long time since the last time we checked them, and they’re crucial to the Russian war machine. Image
2/ Before starting, first I recommend watching @CovertCabal's video on BTRZs:
3/ Here you have the numbers we arrived at: Image
Read 41 tweets
Jun 15
1/ Bit of a long-delayed update, but after all the recent footage I wanted to focus on showing the changes on the smaller storage bases for a change, not the major ones everyone has heard about. Image
2/ I talked about the different types of storage bases in depth on the attached thread, but I'll focus on the former MESRBs:
3/ These are brigade-sized storage facilities with equipment ready-to-go to refit movilized units or quickly replace material losses. As expected, they're long gone for the most part by now. Image
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Read 23 tweets

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