1/ We're finally there! A major Russian storage base is practically empty of any equipment! A thread on the newer footage of the 1295th Central Tank Reserve Base 🧵
2/ Before continuing, check out @CovertCabal's video on the 1295th!
3/ First of all, this thread is almost more an analysis of a pile of junk than a storage base. And before anyone gets picky, I said a MAJOR storage base. You can see that several minor bases are already empty since a while ago.
4/ That said, I alreayd had high hopes for a long time that the 1295th would win the prize:
7/ As you can see, the stored equipment dropped pretty fast as soon as the war started.
8/ It mostly stored old stuff like T-54/55s, T-62, BMP-1s, BRDM-2s, and even BTR-50s! Tho also 136 T-80s.
9/ You can see the evolution of the spots over these almost three years:
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12/ And you can also note that some equipment was cannibalized, and the rest of scrapped armor was moved to the huge scrapyard in the eastern part of the base. They keep demolishing to atoms junk placed there.
13/ By now, all that remains are maybe 3 tanks, 23 BMP-1s and 4 BRDM-2s. And even most of those might be scrap, as the snow makes it very difficult to be sure about the condition of their hulls.
14/ Hell, if you take a closer look you can notice they even moved the two broken BTRs stored next to the ARVs and cannibalized BRDM-2s.
15/ Another interesting thing is that, while more than half of the tanks stored here were the oldest types, many of them were kept in good condition with dry air storage systems.
16/ And also that, as I also mentioned in a thread about ARVs, these aren't being pulled out from storage.
17/ At the same time we barely see any T-55s in Ukraine, despite more than half probably removed from storage by now. I think they're instead being mostly converted to BTS-4 ARVs, as they're based in T-54/55 chassis. Otherwise, where would those come from?
18/ In summary, this base is practically done. Maybe 1-2 more months until it is ENTIRELY depleted, but it doesn't really matter at this point. This is just a sign of a bigger problem for Russia. It may have been the smallest major storage base, but...
19/ a major storage base nonetheless. The more bases are emptier, the more they have to pull out from other bases.
20/ So far I've noticed a trend of about ~20 tanks and ~20-30 BMPs removed from each major storage base per month, and this will only accelerate until all that remains is cannibalized equipment.
21/ And as Covert said, the 2456th/103rd is the next one this weekend. Stay tuned for more content!
22/ As usual, big thanks to @CovertCabal and @HighMarsed, and also to the rest of the crew like @waffentraeger, @Ath3neN0ctu4, @AS_22im, @Rebel44CZ, @UAControlMap and many more!
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1/ It's time to take a look at Russian tank productions and refurbishment rates! Long time delayed, I know, but finally here! This first part of the thread will be about T-54/55s, T-62s, T-64s and T-80s. T-72 and T-90s and specifics on the industry will come in the second part.
2/ Here’s the previous threads, first about APCs, where I also explained the fundamentals and methodology:
There's one fundamental reason for everything that we're seeing lately, and it's been in the making for 2 years already: Zelensky & co refusing to understand that this is a war of survival and not enacting a proper mobilization. Corruption, incompetence, political interests...
Call it whatever you want, but at some point it's not even Syrskiy's fault anymore. YOU CAN'T HOLD GROUND WITHOUT INFANTRY. Everything and everywhere is atrociously undermanned.
Since some people are wondering how many of the "poor" and "worse" tanks can ever be brought back to service, let me explain it once more: ALL OF THEM. It's just a matter of money and time, and how willing the Kremlin is to waste its assets.
Take for example the 2456th tank storage base. The main facility is the one already known, but to the right there's the old scrapyard. Right when the war started they were scrapping T-62s and 64s there, but they stopped for obvious reasons:
We included this tanks in our count, as explained by @CovertCabal in his video about the 2456th, because the ones remaning weren't yet scrapped, tho they're in a terrible state.
Thanks to the kind benefactor we observe that in 3-4 months things have changed a lot for the Russian tank reserve:
- Overall tanks have dropped from 3,106 to 2,478.
- More specifically, T-72As, which previously stand almost the same as prewar, have dropped from 900 to just 461.
Even at bases which previously hadn't seen abrely any tank drawdown like the 2544th, which also has T-62s, T-72As are being pulled out like crazy.
No surprise, considering other recent developments linked to this one, which are what allowed us to suspect in the first place T-72As were fastly being removed from storage bases:
Only question now is how many T-90As they had in the first place, how many T-90Ms are actually made from scratch and how long the tank stockpiles will last, considering they already going for T-72As.
To clarify: this doesn't mean Russia doesn't produce T-90Ms from scratch. In fact T-90A refurbs are probably but a tiny share of the total producion. Among other things, because barely 200 T-90As were produced.
1/ Sort 🧵about the 6018th: while there's still no new decent footage of this major storage base, a closer look at a recent update on Copernicus (Sentinel-2) appears to show a lot of naked ground on the spot where there used to be a lot of the remaining (poorly conserved) armor.
2/ After mostly emptying out the 6018th earlier in the war, in recent times they've come back to pick up the remains.
3/ I previously speculated that these base probably has seen, at the vary least, most or all of their remaining rusty T-80s and better preserved BMP-1/2/3s taken in recent months. We'll just have to wait until better proof of it.