The concept of "fiat" really goes back to the Civil War. In 1862, Abraham Lincoln started printing "greenbacks" that were not convertible into gold, but were declared "legal tender".
450 million of these were printed.
Amazingly, gold-backed dollars co-existed with the new greenbacks. When the North was winning, the gold dollars were worth only a 10% premium to the greenbacks. When the south looked good, the premium expanded to 300%.
In the end, fiat won the war.
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There is a narrative that "bitcoin fixes money printing".
But Stocks, Real Estate and Gold already do that.
Really well. And with much lower volatility that Bitcoin.
Bitcoin does something much different.
It enables you to vastly outperform inflation.
For decades to come.
1/N
Since we went on the Fiat Standard in 1971, we've been printing money at 6.5% which has resulted in about 4.5% inflation, difference being real GDP growth.
We're lower exactly right now, but it was quite a bit higher during the 70s and the Pandemic. 2/N
But traditional asset prices Stocks, Real Estate and Gold have outperformed that, even after taxes. Real Estate with 20% down has been the real winner becuase of leverage 3/N
Even if you know Bitcoin will follow a power-law curve, the ride will be volatile. How will just HODLing do versus kelly criterion rebalancing at 70% and 50% BTC?
We tested this out using 1,000 Monte-Carlo simulations, starting with 100K. 1/6
The 100K investment goes to 1.2 MM on average with a standard deviation of 355K.
So you will make somewhere between a 9x and 13x on your money. If you can stomach the volatility, this is the best strategy.
2/6
But what if you go to a 70% or 50% Kelly allocation?
Mathematically, these rebalancing ratios capture the majority of the compounding benefit while substantially lowering volatility.
Simon Gershowitz shocks markets: Metaplanet adds 5,445 BTC, reaching the iconic 21,000 BTC milestone.
Funded by:
- A ¥100 billion BTC-backed loan via Goldman Sachs Japan
- Issuance of JSTRK, a Japanese-registered yield note modeled after Strategy’s STRK
Bitcoin surges to $138,000 by day’s end.
Gershowitz on X:
“A company that holds Bitcoin is a company that holds time.”
2/13
📅 Thursday, August 21, 2025
Strategy reveals a 20,000 BTC acquisition, funded by convertible senior notes and balance sheet leverage.
In his new book, "How Countries Go Broke" Ray Dalio states the core function of banks is to "match lenders and borrowers, earning a spread".
I will add:
"That function is being completely replaced by Bitcoin and DeFi."
Banks are obsolete. 🧵
For centuries, banks served as trust brokers. They held your money, lent it out, and skimmed the spread. That worked in a world of paper, middlemen, and closed systems.
But today, trust is programmable.
Collateral is digital.
Settlement is instant.
The bank is just code. 2/N
We saw this play out first with exchanges.
Back in 2018, I told Miko Matsumura that DEXs would replace centralized exchanges.
It took a few years, but now it’s obvious: Uniswap, Raydium, Jupiter — they’ve already won. 3/N
For the last two years, Gold and Bitcoin have decoupled from Real Interest Rates (HT @LynAldenContact) . We are witnessing a stampede into hard money, at the same time real rates soar. 1/N
Why now?
For the last 30 years, we have been on a steady increase in overal debt. This was funded by an increasing size of the Social Security trust, which peaked in 2020.
But now the demographics have changed. The trust is being depleted. The math is working in reverse 2/N
As my generation (the Boomers) start drawing down that trust, it will be a net seller of US Treasuries.
The ponzi scheme has ended. The train is not just "unstoppable", it's officially "off the tracks".
This is not just the 1970s. It's much worse. And there is a new alternative.