Fred Krueger Profile picture
Dec 11, 2024 1 tweets 1 min read Read on X
The concept of "fiat" really goes back to the Civil War. In 1862, Abraham Lincoln started printing "greenbacks" that were not convertible into gold, but were declared "legal tender".

450 million of these were printed.

Amazingly, gold-backed dollars co-existed with the new greenbacks. When the North was winning, the gold dollars were worth only a 10% premium to the greenbacks. When the south looked good, the premium expanded to 300%.

In the end, fiat won the war.Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Fred Krueger

Fred Krueger Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @dotkrueger

Oct 31
🧵 The Bitcoin Yield Fund: 10% Yield. 30% Growth. Tax-Deferred. (concept)

Most investors want two things:
✅ Steady income
✅ Long-term upside

Usually, you can’t have both.
Yield means selling your future. Growth means no cash flow.
Bitcoin changes that.
[2] Imagine investing $1M into a Bitcoin partnership fund.

The fund pays you 10% per year — that’s $100K annually, tax-deferred.
Meanwhile, your capital compounds at 30% CAGR with Bitcoin.

After 10 years:
• $1M paid out in cash
• ~$13.8M in Bitcoin value
• No tax until exit.
[3] How is it tax-deferred?
Because it’s not a “dividend” — it’s a return of capital under IRC §731.
As long as distributions don’t exceed your basis, they’re not taxable.
Your basis just declines each year while your Bitcoin grows at the Power Law.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 8
There is a narrative that "bitcoin fixes money printing".
But Stocks, Real Estate and Gold already do that.
Really well. And with much lower volatility that Bitcoin.

Bitcoin does something much different.
It enables you to vastly outperform inflation.
For decades to come.

1/N
Since we went on the Fiat Standard in 1971, we've been printing money at 6.5% which has resulted in about 4.5% inflation, difference being real GDP growth.

We're lower exactly right now, but it was quite a bit higher during the 70s and the Pandemic. 2/N Image
But traditional asset prices Stocks, Real Estate and Gold have outperformed that, even after taxes. Real Estate with 20% down has been the real winner becuase of leverage 3/N Image
Read 5 tweets
Aug 6
🚨THE FUTURE IS STOCHASTIC🚨

Even if you know Bitcoin will follow a power-law curve, the ride will be volatile. How will just HODLing do versus kelly criterion rebalancing at 70% and 50% BTC?

We tested this out using 1,000 Monte-Carlo simulations, starting with 100K. 1/6 Image
The 100K investment goes to 1.2 MM on average with a standard deviation of 355K.

So you will make somewhere between a 9x and 13x on your money. If you can stomach the volatility, this is the best strategy.

2/6
But what if you go to a 70% or 50% Kelly allocation?

Mathematically, these rebalancing ratios capture the majority of the compounding benefit while substantially lowering volatility.

3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 9
THE GREAT TREASURY BUBBLE

August 2025 – August 2026

How Bitcoin treasury giants like Metaplanet and Strategy fueled a parabolic rise to $444K—and triggered a collapse to $84K

1/13
📅 Monday, August 11, 2025
Bitcoin: $132,000
Metaplanet: ¥1,537 | mNAV: 4.6× | BTC holdings: 15,555

Simon Gershowitz shocks markets: Metaplanet adds 5,445 BTC, reaching the iconic 21,000 BTC milestone.
Funded by:
- A ¥100 billion BTC-backed loan via Goldman Sachs Japan
- Issuance of JSTRK, a Japanese-registered yield note modeled after Strategy’s STRK

Bitcoin surges to $138,000 by day’s end.
Gershowitz on X:

“A company that holds Bitcoin is a company that holds time.”

2/13
📅 Thursday, August 21, 2025
Strategy reveals a 20,000 BTC acquisition, funded by convertible senior notes and balance sheet leverage.

Their message:

“Our treasury is now denominated in truth.”

Bitcoin breaks $150,000.

3/13
Read 13 tweets
Jun 5
In his new book, "How Countries Go Broke" Ray Dalio states the core function of banks is to "match lenders and borrowers, earning a spread".

I will add:

"That function is being completely replaced by Bitcoin and DeFi."

Banks are obsolete. 🧵
For centuries, banks served as trust brokers. They held your money, lent it out, and skimmed the spread. That worked in a world of paper, middlemen, and closed systems.

But today, trust is programmable.
Collateral is digital.
Settlement is instant.
The bank is just code. 2/N
We saw this play out first with exchanges.

Back in 2018, I told Miko Matsumura that DEXs would replace centralized exchanges.

It took a few years, but now it’s obvious: Uniswap, Raydium, Jupiter — they’ve already won.
3/N

No CEO required
Read 10 tweets
Jun 4
8%. Thats a pretty key number.
----------------------------------

Since 2000 Global Money supply has been growing exactly at 8%. 1/N Image
Same with US Debt. Steady grower at 8% 2/N Image
If you add in dividends, The SP500 has just about matched it. After tax, of course, you lose a minimum of 25% 3/N Image
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(