🇯🇵📉 Japan rates are suddenly all over X. People are posting scary charts of the 10-year JGB going from 1% to 2% and jumping straight to “global collapse” and “Bitcoin is next.”

They are wrong. Let’s analyze and do a deep dive. 1/N 🇯🇵🇺🇸 Japan is a beast of its own and very different from the U.S. For the last two decades, Japan has lived under zero interest rates and QE — effectively a flat yield curve pinned at zero. 2/N

🧵 The Bitcoin Yield Fund: 10% Yield. 30% Growth. Tax-Deferred. (concept)

Most investors want two things:
✅ Steady income
✅ Long-term upside

Usually, you can’t have both.
Yield means selling your future. Growth means no cash flow.
Bitcoin changes that. [2] Imagine investing $1M into a Bitcoin partnership fund.

The fund pays you 10% per year — that’s $100K annually, tax-deferred.
Meanwhile, your capital compounds at 30% CAGR with Bitcoin.

After 10 years:
• $1M paid out in cash
• ~$13.8M in Bitcoin value
• No tax until exit.

There is a narrative that "bitcoin fixes money printing".
But Stocks, Real Estate and Gold already do that.
Really well. And with much lower volatility that Bitcoin.

Bitcoin does something much different.
It enables you to vastly outperform inflation.
For decades to come.

1/N Since we went on the Fiat Standard in 1971, we've been printing money at 6.5% which has resulted in about 4.5% inflation, difference being real GDP growth.

We're lower exactly right now, but it was quite a bit higher during the 70s and the Pandemic. 2/N

🚨THE FUTURE IS STOCHASTIC🚨

Even if you know Bitcoin will follow a power-law curve, the ride will be volatile. How will just HODLing do versus kelly criterion rebalancing at 70% and 50% BTC?

We tested this out using 1,000 Monte-Carlo simulations, starting with 100K. 1/6 The 100K investment goes to 1.2 MM on average with a standard deviation of 355K.

So you will make somewhere between a 9x and 13x on your money. If you can stomach the volatility, this is the best strategy.

2/6

THE GREAT TREASURY BUBBLE

August 2025 – August 2026

How Bitcoin treasury giants like Metaplanet and Strategy fueled a parabolic rise to $444K—and triggered a collapse to $84K

1/13 📅 Monday, August 11, 2025
Bitcoin: $132,000
Metaplanet: ¥1,537 | mNAV: 4.6× | BTC holdings: 15,555

Simon Gershowitz shocks markets: Metaplanet adds 5,445 BTC, reaching the iconic 21,000 BTC milestone.
Funded by:
- A ¥100 billion BTC-backed loan via Goldman Sachs Japan
- Issuance of JSTRK, a Japanese-registered yield note modeled after Strategy’s STRK

Bitcoin surges to $138,000 by day’s end.
Gershowitz on X:

“A company that holds Bitcoin is a company that holds time.”

2/13

In his new book, "How Countries Go Broke" Ray Dalio states the core function of banks is to "match lenders and borrowers, earning a spread".

I will add:

"That function is being completely replaced by Bitcoin and DeFi."

Banks are obsolete. 🧵 For centuries, banks served as trust brokers. They held your money, lent it out, and skimmed the spread. That worked in a world of paper, middlemen, and closed systems.

But today, trust is programmable.
Collateral is digital.
Settlement is instant.
The bank is just code. 2/N

8%. Thats a pretty key number.
----------------------------------

Since 2000 Global Money supply has been growing exactly at 8%. 1/N Same with US Debt. Steady grower at 8% 2/N

Something new is happening.

For the last two years, Gold and Bitcoin have decoupled from Real Interest Rates (HT @LynAldenContact) . We are witnessing a stampede into hard money, at the same time real rates soar. 1/N Why now?

For the last 30 years, we have been on a steady increase in overal debt. This was funded by an increasing size of the Social Security trust, which peaked in 2020.

But now the demographics have changed. The trust is being depleted. The math is working in reverse 2/N

slides from my earlier presentation.

💥 THE FINAL RUN: BITCOIN TO $600,000

Timeframe: 90 days — from Monday, July 21, 2025

Starting BTC: $150,000
Ending BTC: $600,000
Final Gold: $10,400
DXY: Collapses from 96 → 68

U.S. 10Y Yield: Spikes to 9.2% before being "frozen" by the Fed

SPX: Collapses 50%

1/10 🧨 PHASE I: THE BREACH (Week 1–2)
🗓️ Monday, July 21
$200B Treasury auction is barely covered.

WSJ headline: “Treasury Buyers Missing in Action.”

Fed hints at “extraordinary measures.”

BTC: $158K → $165K in 24 hours

Gold: $4,200

2/10

Who owns our debt?
Mainly other countries.
And they are selling our debt.

So how is this going to unfold? 1/N Let's first look at the Sovereigns. 2/N

Japan has already threatened to dump the majority of their treasuries. There are reducing. China is selling for gold. Mainland Europe is not in a position to buy more.

There really is no room to grow here.

I'm building a local AI Chief of Staff on my Mac M3 Ultra.

No cloud. No API calls.
100% private. 100% under my control.
Here’s what it will do. 🧵👇 📩 Email Management

Auto-respond to inbound emails
Carry on threaded conversations
Summarize inbox daily
Draft follow-ups and schedule meetings

This is the absolute best analysis of Bitcoin, Money Printing, Power Law, Bitcoin versus Gold ever put together.

@1basemoney is criminally under-followed. I will put together my TLDR in the comments.

https://twitter.com/1basemoney/status/1912065202419540090

First of all, Mathew looks at population growth versus money supply growth over the last 50 years. Money Supply is growing at 13% while population growth is growing at 1-2%.

The impact: since 1980, Money Supply is up 25x, while population is up 2x.

The way I see it, Gold has essentially failed as hard money, and it's being held by central banks as a vague defense mechanism to prop up their fiat currencies in the (likely) event of an eventual "run on the bank".

Bitcoin could play a much different "reserve role".

A 🧵 1/N First, let's be clear: Gold has not been used as actual "money" for "transactions" in over 300 years.

- Certainly in the time of the Medici's (starting 1252) the gold florin was actually the main unit of exchange for large transactions.
- this got copied and pasted into the Ducat (1254), the British Noble (1344), the French Ecu (1377), The Spanish Escudo (1535), The French Louis d'Or (1640), The British Guinea (1663), the US Gold Eagle (1795) and finally the French Napolean (1803).

But starting in the min 1800s, banknotes replaced actual Gold coins.

These banknotes were initially Bank of England Pounds, US State Chartered Dollar bills, US Greenbacks starting in 1860, and then Federal Reserved backed dollars starting in 1913.

For almost 200 years we have used "gold backed paper" and not actual gold as money. And it has failed repeatedly

- Greenbacks were issued in 1860 as legal tender with no official backing
- The US officialy went on the Gold Standard in 1900, but off it in 1933 with EO 6102. The International redeemabilityy ended in 1971.
- Britain when on it in 1816, off of it during the Napoleanic wars (1797-1821), off during WW1, and finally off in 1831.

Similar patterns exist for France, Germany etc. The problem is the idea of "paper backed by gold" sounds good, but the reality is, it always fails. 2/N

Here's the real hard truth of where we are in America: 1/N

1. Over the last 24 years, we've increased Goverment Spending as a percentage of GDP from 17% to 24%. We're getting fatter, more bureaucratic and useless. @elon is right We spend basically 7 hours a day now wasting time of the Internet. We have become vegetables. 2/N

The arb desk perspective on MSTR. Math, analysis and limitations of cloning.

A thread 1/N

On September 24, 2024 MSTR issued 875 Million .625% convertible senior notes, maturing on September 15, 2028.

At the time of issuance, the conversion price of $183.19 was approximately 19% above the estimated spot price of $154. For simplicity, let’s use 20% as the number.

MSTR’s actual volatility is around 80%.

A four year call option 20% out of the money is worth 58% at 80% vol.

Let’s assume for simplicity that all of the bond is purchased by an arb desk.

The delta is about 79%. So the arb desk will short 79% of the issue to stay delta neutral. If the arb desk does 875 Million of the issue, they will need to short 691 Million.

They can expect to make 58% of the issue price or $400 million. There will be friction, and volatility could drop, so let’s assume 350 million to be safe.

With slippage, and including the .625% coupon, they get to 42%

They of course have credit risk. In an extreme scenario, they might not be “money good”. But let’s just assume that they are OK with the credit.

They do need to come up with 875 Million. Their funding rate on that might be closer to 8%.

Over 4 years, that is 36% of the principal, compounded.

The difference of 42% to 36% is the arb desks net profit. Something like 6 points, or 52 million. So what is needed to pull this off? Can others implement the MSTR strategy? 2/N

For the arb desk to be interested, they need three things:

1. volatility
2. a liquid share to short.
3. enough BTC in the vehicle to comfortably carry the debt.

At the beginning of 2024, MSTR has 154K BTC, valued at 5.8 Billion. BTC has gone up 50% since then, and MSTR has tapped the convert market for 2 Billion in debt.

Regarding point (1), all clones will have it. This is inherent to the Bitcoin backed strategy.

Point (2) really requires size. These convert arb guys wont be interested under 1 Billion market cap. Not deep enough.

Roughly speaking, per point (3), a rate of 5x BTC to new convert debt per year is probably doable.

So if a new clone company was created with 1 Billion in fresh BTC capital, it might be able to tap the market with 250MM in convertible debt in 2025.

Fresh look at the Power Law Data
Date: Oct 6, 2024
Monthly Data.

Observation 1: We're on track to hit BTC 1 Million (trend) in 10 years (1.4 in Log since Genesis) Observation 2: Vol is estimated at 0.3. So 1 standard deviation is 100% from trend. 2 is 200% of trend.

So, depending on timing we could hit 1 million earlier if we are say at trend 250K and we are at 2 standard dev of this.

This could happen in June 2028 (4 years from now)

Money Printing
The Last 100 Years
A short presentation

1/N Central Banking In Place WorldWide by 1914

- Bank of England created in 1694
- Bank de France 1800
- State Bank of Russian Empire 1860
- German Reichsbank created in 1876
- Federal Reserve created in 1913

All major powers now have central banks, and the ability to print money and finance the first world war! 2/N

A little mathematical diversion on Poisson Densities,
as mentioned in the WhitePaper (p7)

@moneyordebt If you have independent, identically distributed events, such as the number of phone calls you get in an hour, or, as Satoshi was modeling, the number of blocks you can mine in 10 min * z, where z is the amount of confirmations a receiver has been given in advance of a planned double spend.

If you let lambda = z * q / p

Then the probability of getting exactly k events (blocks) is

Bitcoin 69K in November 2021 is very different from Bitcoin 69K in April 2024.

In November 2021, the Power Law "fair value" was 24.5K. We were trading at 2.8X that. In log terms, thats about 1.6 standard deviations! That's VERY expensive.

Today the power law model "fair value" is 64K. We are at 8% over fair value. Thats just 0.1 standard deviation. Basically, we are "on trend".

The biggest deviation overshoot was in March 2021 when we hit 58K. At that point the trendline was 18.2K, 3.2X. That's about 2 standard deviations!

Most people don't appreciate this. It's one of the big benefits of the power law tool of analysis! I would argue that with the ETF, we are now VERY cheap in fundamental terms.

Here's the best intuition behind power law; it's slowing exponential growth. A 🧵1/N

10 years ago (2014) Bitcoin price was growing at 200% a year.

5 years ago (2019) that growth rate slowed to 79%

Today it's 47%

In 5 years (2029), it will be a "mere" 34%

And by 2034 we will be down to 19%

I'll explain all these numbers, as well as intuition for number of addresses and hash rates next A power law in time simply states that

y(t) = a * t ^ b for some constants a and b

y could be bitcoin price, hash rate or number of addresses. @Giovann35084111 has shown that all of these are power laws 2/N