🧵Today, Israeli media is reporting that the IDF operation to eliminate Assad’s military has so far led to a staggering 86% of the Syrian Air Defense Array being destroyed. What this means is that the path that posed a significant threat to Israeli aircraft is now wide open 👇
Following the IDF’s unprecedented attacks on the remainder of Assad’s military forces, the IDF has conducted an assessment and know believes that there is an opportunity to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The IDF, in conjunction with the Mossad, is now carrying out what is described as a “preparation” process in order to present the political echelon with a viable plan for an attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities.
This process began when the Syrian Air Defense Array (SADA), which was considered to be amongst the most advanced/dense in the world (with modern Russian systems), was quietly but efficiently destroyed by the IDF over the past few days. SADA had fired hundreds of missiles at Israeli aircraft over the past few years and has been a massive issue for Israeli aircraft and missiles entering into Syrian airspace.
The IAF has put focus on two specific systems, the Russian SA-18 ‘Buk’ and the SA-22 ‘Pantsir’ which are both responsible for shooting down a number of Israeli missiles and munitions over Syria in the past few years. Since Assad’s fall, the IAF can now report that they have destroyed at least 80% of the SA-18 systems, and a whopping 86% of the SA-22 systems. In addition, 90% of the Syrian inventory of the MiG-29 and 80% of their Sukhoi-24 were also destroyed (representing 61% of the Syrian Air Force’s strike aircraft).
However, some missile arrays were damaged less, and the IDF estimates that some of them will still fall into rebel hands. However, the IAF has struck over 500 targets using over 1,800 munitions in the past few days, and these choices were deliberate. The systems targeted (and now destroyed) are the most advanced ones and ones that pose the most threat to Israeli strike aircraft using Syrian airspace to carry out their most important mission since 1948 – the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.
Information courtesy of the excellent Doron Kadosh of IDF Radio.
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🧵🔴Assad's Last Few Days Lies and Escape: Bashar Assad told almost no one about his intention to flee Syria when he realized his regime was collapsing. He hid his escape from his aides, associates, and even his family. Hours before he fled to Moscow, the president promised, at a meeting at the Defense Ministry attended by about 30 senior military and security officials, that Russian aid was on the way – and called on the forces on the ground to hold out.
On Saturday, when he finished work, Assad told his office manager that he was going home – but instead, he went to the airport. He also called his media advisor, Buthaina Shaaban, and asked her to come to his house to write a speech. When Shaaban arrived, she found no one at home.
Reuters interviewed 14 sources who were familiar with Assad's final days in power. They describe a dictator seeking outside help to survive in power and secretly fleeing his country when he realized his rule was ending. According to Reuters, Assad did not even inform his younger brother Maher, commander of the army's Fourth Division, of his departure. Maher took off by helicopter to Iraq and, from there, continued to Russia, where Bashar is also allegedly staying with his wife and children. Ihab and Ied Makhlouf, Assad's maternal cousins, could not escape. When Damascus fell to the rebels, the two tried to flee by car to Lebanon but were caught in a rebel ambush. They killed Ihab and wounded Ied.
🔴🧵A snapshot of the Israeli operation in Syria and the new reality that is taking shape on the border from Doron Kadosh, IDF Radio.
1. The forces have already entered several kilometers into the buffer zone between Israel and Syria. Israel has set limitations for itself: operate only in the buffer zone but do not cross the Syrian border line (the red line, "Bravo Line") to maintain international legitimacy for the operation. At this stage, to my understanding, the US is informed and fully supports the Israeli operation in Syria.
2. Sources in Israel tell me: "From our point of view, the separation of forces agreement between Israel and Syria from 1974 is dead. It is no longer relevant. No regime or army on the other side will uphold its side of the agreement, so we respect the Syrian border line but are working to reshape the security reality at the border."
3. The IDF airstrikes on the last day in Syria are a rather dramatic event: Israel is systematically destroying Assad's army. Every possible military target that belonged to the Syrian regime was destroyed - tanks, planes, intelligence facilities, and advanced military equipment. The air force bases have been operating in the last day as a freeway of planes that leave and return from waves of attacks, with heavy bombs of a ton and also bombs that penetrate bunkers.
🧵Everyone has been hearing the term “Syrian Rebels” a lot the past few days, and I wanted to break this very general characterization down into specifics. Below you will find a brief description of the major armed groups in Syria and whose interests they represent. Learn!
SIG/SNA: The Syrian Interim Government (Political Wing) and the Syrian National Army (Military Wing) represent the Turkish interests in Syria. They are armed, funded, and more or less commanded by the Turkish Armed Forces. The SNA controls territory in the north of Idlib on the border with Turkey and a zone inside of Rojava.. The SNA is for all intents and purposes a representation of the Turkish military inside of Syria and will be the most likely group to clash with the SDF due to Erdogan’s deep hatred of the Kurds.
SSG/HTS: The Syrian Salvation Government (Political Wing) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Military Wing) represent the Islamist element inside of Syria. Headed by the charismatic Abu Muhamad al-Julani, HTS is responsible for most of the gains against the Assad regime and now control most of Idlib including Aleppo, the cities of Hams, Homs, and the entire coastal region to include Latakia and Tartus. HTS is one of the more effective fighting forces inside of Syria and controls most of the major cities and ports now.
🧵ANALYSIS: WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH HEZBOLLAH NOW? Hezbollah will not be able to market this war as a victory; their propaganda channel is trying, but if you bypass these channels, you will find a completely different tone. Hezbollah is in colossal trouble internally, and those in Israel who hope that Hezbollah will violate the agreement and try to challenge the oversight committee in southern Lebanon, don't understand the depth of the crisis that the movement is facing.
Anyone who follows the Lebanese media (which Hezbollah does not control) will find it difficult to miss the criticism, sarcasm, and pain that appear in almost every word. "The south was destroyed, including the Bukaa and Dahiya; Israel reached the Litani, eliminated Nasrallah and the top Hezbollah officials, and hundreds of thousands fled and lived in terrible conditions. Before the war, Hezbollah controlled the south - and today, it will be an American general. Israel will control us and allow Israel to enter whenever it wants. There is no other way to describe it except for the 1701 PLUS PRO MAX resolution." This painful and cynical manifesto was voiced this week by Sarah Assaf, a resident of Beirut who described the feelings of many in Lebanon.
In a country where many of the citizens—Sunnis, Christians, Druze, and some Shiites even—see Hezbollah as a hostile entity that let Iran in the front door, it is not surprising that this is how things look. The narrative in Lebanon has been established: from the "protector of Lebanon," Hezbollah has become the destroyer of Lebanon. This organization has only brought destruction upon them in the last year and two months.
🧵What are Israel's options after the ICC issues arrest warrants? Sources in Israel said last night that after seeing the unexpected massive backlash from the US and other countries, the ICC realized they went too far and are looking for a "ladder to climb down." A Thread
Israel can appeal within five days, but it will most likely decide to ignore the warrants to finish the issues with the ICC once and for all. The ICC clearly stepped outside its boundaries.
According to the harsh reactions of senior officials in the administration of the President-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, the tendency in Jerusalem is not to challenge but to wait for developments in the international arena, especially for the harsh steps from the new Trump administration on January 20.
🔴📰 NEW DETAILS about the IDF naval commando operation that captured the senior Hezbollah official in northern Lebanon. Thread:
1. The Israeli commando operation in northern Lebanon has been planned for a long time, and in Israel, they waited for the operational and intelligence opportunity to carry it out. The intelligence officials followed Imad Amhz for some time, waiting for an opportunity when they could say there was a high certainty of the operation's success. In the end, the execution of Sheytet 13 was accurate and ended without any unusual events and resistance - there was no battle with terrorists, and the detainee also did not express resistance and surrendered to the hands of the fighters
2. The IDF did not intend to take responsibility for the operation, and if it had not been published in the Lebanese media - it would have been kept secret. However, after the action was exposed in the media in Lebanon, the IDF discussed the issue and decided to take responsibility. Yet security officials say: we prepared for a situation where the operation would be exposed, and we knew there was a high probability of cameras filming the forces' activity - this did not prevent the operation.
3. Investigators from Unit 504 of the IDF military intelligence operated in the field alongside the fighters of the Shaytet 13 in civilian clothes. The investigators, who speak Arabic, carried out a preliminary investigation in the field of the captured Hezbollah operative to ensure that he was the right person and the target of the arrest.