Philip Pilkington Profile picture
Dec 13 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/ The media isn’t reporting it but the Biden administration appears to be going into full Hitler-in-the-bunker mode and trying to destroy global energy markets to crush the EU economy and lower American living standards through more inflation to hurt Trump. 🧵 Image
2/ It started with a new sanctions package quietly rolled out on Nov 21st a few weeks after the election. Most didn’t pay attention as the Russian sanctions have been seen as redundant by smart people for over a year now. Image
3/ But these sanctions were different. They used sanctions on Gazprombank - which the EU buys gas through - to try to interfere with EU energy supplies. Image
4/ After over 2 years of failed sanctions Russia is still the EU’s 2nd largest gas provider. We now know that there is simply no choice for Europe. They tried everything. Image
5/ In response to the new sanctions, the Russians have tried to accommodate by making the financial system more flexible. But at this stage short-term disruptions seem inevitable. Image
6/ This week German electricity prices went up higher than they were even at the peak of the post-war increase. Image
7/ Germany is already deindustrialising. It cannot take more pain. The US surely knows Russia will shrug this off. We can only conclude the Biden administration is trying to damage Europe. Image
8/ But the feral Biden administration isn’t content with just hitting their “allies”. Now they’re aiming to disrupt global oil markets. We can only assume this is to hurt US consumers and generate inflation for Trump to deal with. Image
9/ The plan is to sanction tankers carrying Russian oil. As Bloomberg states, the Biden administration avoided this in the past because of the damage it would do to the US economy. Image
10/ Will it work? We don’t know. But oil markets are paying attention and prices are rising. Image
11/ Biden himself has become a deeply cynical and sinister figure having discredited himself even within his own party by pardoning his own son. Image
12/ It is truly scary to have such an unscrupulous and seemingly confused person wield such power over the world with no political constraints. In his orgy of economic destruction Biden is only undermining the credibility of the office that he holds.

END/ Image

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More from @philippilk

Dec 4
1/ EXCLUSIVE. After extensive investigation and months of on-the-ground reporting I am now able to provide a deep anthropological exposé of the Turboamerica Ecosystem. Join me as I explore this strange and exotic phenomenon. 🚀🇺🇸🧵 Image
2/ The ecosystem is populated with two broad species of creatures. At the top of the hierarchy we have the ‘slopbloggers’ and at the bottom we have the ‘chudpoasters’. Image
3/ Chudpoasters derive their name from the slur popularised by dirtbag leftist writers some years ago. This characterisation of the right-wing was inaccurate as the right is remarkably intellectually interesting right now but it was correct in that chuds do exist. Image
Read 20 tweets
Nov 14
1/ With China beefing up its gold reserves and largely opting out of the market for foreign holdings of US Treasuries - which is already causing liquidity problems - it’s useful to get a sense of what the Chinese are saying about this internally. 🧵 Image
2/ Here we turn to the latest issue of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations’ journal. CICIR is an important government-affiliated think tank that has been around since 1965. So borderline official doctrine coming from this shop. Image
3/ In the Contents section we see not one, but two articles on the US dollar. ‘The Exorbitant Privilege of US Treasuries and China’s Choice in the New Era’ and ‘Impact of Financial Sanctions on the Dollar’s International Status’. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 6
1/ Now that we have the results let’s take a look at the Shy Trump Effect and how it performed. Remember: when applying the Shy Trump Effect to the polls all we are doing is standard statistical practice. Why can’t @NateSilver538 and @FiveThirtyEight figure it out? 🤷‍♂️
2/ Some of the swing states haven’t been called but we have some idea of spread. In what follows I will use ‘Trump’s Lead Over Harris’ as the measure. Just as in the original Shy Trump Effect prediction thread.
3/ We start with Arizona.

Polls = +2.6%
Shy Trump Model = +4.9
Result = +4.7%

SHY TRUMP MODEL WIN! 🎉🥳 Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 4
1/ The US election is here. If you analyze the polls properly you'll see that @realDonaldTrump is ahead of @KamalaHarris by anywhere between 2.4% and 6.9% in the swing states. The reason the media won't tell you this is because they don't understand the Shy Trump Effect. 🇺🇸🧵 Image
2/ The polls show consistent bias against @realDonaldTrump. This is not due to cheating but due to quirks in the polling. More later. For now, let us just look at polls versus outcomes. Here are the November polls in 2020 versus the actual results. They were way off. Image
3/ Despite these not being the swing states in 2016, we see a similar pattern of polls missing their mark by a long shot in 2016. Again, the polls always showed @realDonaldTrump way behind what his actual results would be. Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 3
1/ Despite not becoming Tory leader @RobertJenrick tried to raise serious economic issues in the recent contest. Britain appears locked into 5 year old culture war issues even as its economy looks on the brink of collapse. Britain needs a serious debate on this ASAP. 🧵 Image
2/ @RobertJenrick recognised that one key issue is energy. He advocated switching from green investments into nuclear, specifically small modular reactors (SMR). Britain needs a new energy policy ASAP but it seems highly unlikely the country can develop its own SMRs. Image
3/ The only country that has successfully built a functional SMR is, you guessed it: China. The Linglong One was brought online at the start of this year. Image
Read 12 tweets
Oct 25
1/ We have been treated to 48 hours of hot garbage on what happened at the BRICS summit around alternative financing relationships. In this thread we will go through the garbage and look at what actually happened.Image
2/ Start with the silliest first. Some people were circulating a picture of an actual BRICS banknote, as if the BRICS would adopt a single currency like the euro. This would be like the G7 adopting a single currency. Nonsensical. Image
3/ The actual source of this was a symbolic gesture between the Russians and the UAE last year. BRICS will never, ever adopt a single currency as that would be utterly ridiculous economically. Image
Read 14 tweets

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