Yesterday two Alawite brothers were murdered in an armed robbery of their house in #Latakia. The intruders claimed they were part of HTS. Local leaders called on HTS to take revenge & create joint committee.
HTS visited village w/ Alawite sheikh same day & promised swift action
Request for joint security committees of HTS & local men across Alawite communities is a good step, and local pages seem optimistic that this may be introduced soon. Local pages also deny rumors that civilians have fled their homes out fear
Murdered brothers Muhamad & Ahmed Taha
On December 16 three brothers went to the Homs City reconciliation center. Men claiming to be from HTS stopped them on the way, taking the two ex-officers in their car. Their bodies found next day in Wa'er. Story is widely spread by ex-army as evidence they should not reconcile
Large weapons cache found in Masyaf countryside earlier today.
Nubl police force (shia town in #Aleppo) re-activated on Dec 19. One of the first signs minority dynamics had massively shifted was when +1,000 residents of the town negotiated with HTS to return to Nubl/Zahara rather than move to still-regime held areas on Dec 2
Reports of clashes tonight in Ransiyeh village #Tartous, on the Lebanon border, with locals killing 1-3 men. Different stories, some say thieves impersonating opposition factions while others say it was a raid ambushed by criminals in the village. 1st such incident in Tartous.
The Martyrs of Talkalakh Battalion - which was assigned initial security control of Talkalakh - claims it was their own unit that was responding to a (fake) report of clashes in Ransiyeh that was then ambushed
Battalion demanded HTS sent security to deal w/ armed regime elements
General Security convoys arrived in Talkalakh today to "take control of security in the cs"
"Some warnings sent to villages to surrender their weapons peacefully...Some mukhtars were also summoned and some instructions were given to them to maintain security and safety"
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1) The Bedouin couple that was murdered lived on the edge of Mouhajireen neighborhood, they had lived there for 30 years and were known by everyone. Of course their killing was intended to cause this chaos
2) they were from the Beni Khaled tribe, who responded by storming the mostly Alawi Mouhajireen neighborhood, vandalizing homes and potentially killing two people (unconfirmed as far as I know).
Around 1:20pm armed convoys arrived in central Homs shooting in the air.
3) At this point Zahraa & Abbasiyah neighborhoods were locked down (both are adjacent to Mouhajireen). General security deployed on all main entrances and were turning cars away
The neighborhoods were already ghost towns with almost every shop closed and streets empty
3) Much of this goes back to disbanding the security forces w/out any follow up plan. The explicit demands of the coast are to rehire some men into local police, but the underlying fear is that Alawites will never be allowed part of the govt again & will be cut from rest of Syria
Only a handful of experts have done fieldwork on HTS before this week. People like @dkhalifa @jeromedrev are extremely well respected for their professional & nuanced analysis on the group & have written extensively on this issue. I encourage reading their well-researched takes
Four years ago(!) a transcript from @dkhalifa's interview with Jolani. Dareen has been on the record about his shift - demonstrated in very clear *actions* - over the years based on engaging with both HTS and the people they ruled in Idlib crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
2021. @jeromedrev and @patrickhaenni write an extremely rich report on the evolution of HTS's approach to rule and ideology within the context of a weakened revolution. Based on a decade of actual fieldwork cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/69…
Yesterday Mil Operations leaders met with Alawite notables in #Latakia. Hassan Soufan (ex-Ahrar) is now Mil Commander of the Coast.
An Alawite professor from Latakia University gave an overview:
"Sheikh Abu Hassan & Sheikh Hassan spoke with complete transparency ..."
1) "priority is to impose security & safety... strictly forbidden to attack any person under the pretext of sectarianism ... attack private & public property ... enter or search homes except in special cases & by the uniformed General Security after showing their identities"
2) "strictly forbidden to shoot, anyone who violates the law will be arrested - the failure to hold anyone accountable now is due to lack of a sufficient number of military operations personnel, and these matters will be addressed as soon as possible, perhaps within a few hours."
Capture of Ourm al-Sughra is an important step towards capturing 46th Reg Base, which will be crucial for solidifying gains and freeing up resources for the eastern axes.
Lots of hype for an imminent Turkish offensive in NES that seems largely divorced from reality. Reminds me of the cycles of "new Idlib operation" that are based on flimsy evidence.
Struggle to see why this would happen after yesterday's at least not-negative Biden/Erdogan summit
From the Turkish perspective, their big complaint has been the PKK commanders embedded in NES and they seem quite content with their recent policy of droning these commanders. Meanwhile their military is stretched thin with overseas deployments right now
Erdogan is also dealing with an economic crisis amid a surging opposition that is increasingly vocal in their opposition to Syria ops. It isn't like past years where he can use an offensive to "distract" voters. An op now with dead TSK would likely only weaken him in the polls