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Gregory Waters Profile picture
Gregory Waters
@GregoryPWaters
Writes about Syria | Researcher @syrian_archive | Analyst @FightExtremism | Associate Fellow @MEI_Syria | Former consultant @CrisisGroup
Feb 19 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Finished 3 weeks across Syria and I’m far more pessimistic now. In December I was confident the security concerns were misplaced & was largely right

Now the economic crisis has replaced immediate sec issues, w/ many losing patience despite massive hurdles facing the government Image 2) The economy is testing every Syrian and inhibiting needed reforms/unification efforts

Alawite communities seem to think they are uniquely affected by economy, fueling massive fears of being targeted & marginalized more broadly
Dec 13, 2024 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Yesterday two Alawite brothers were murdered in an armed robbery of their house in #Latakia. The intruders claimed they were part of HTS. Local leaders called on HTS to take revenge & create joint committee.

HTS visited village w/ Alawite sheikh same day & promised swift action Image
Image Request for joint security committees of HTS & local men across Alawite communities is a good step, and local pages seem optimistic that this may be introduced soon. Local pages also deny rumors that civilians have fled their homes out fear

Murdered brothers Muhamad & Ahmed Taha Image
Dec 12, 2024 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Only a handful of experts have done fieldwork on HTS before this week. People like @dkhalifa @jeromedrev are extremely well respected for their professional & nuanced analysis on the group & have written extensively on this issue. I encourage reading their well-researched takes Four years ago(!) a transcript from @dkhalifa's interview with Jolani. Dareen has been on the record about his shift - demonstrated in very clear *actions* - over the years based on engaging with both HTS and the people they ruled in Idlib
crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
Dec 11, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Yesterday Mil Operations leaders met with Alawite notables in #Latakia. Hassan Soufan (ex-Ahrar) is now Mil Commander of the Coast.

An Alawite professor from Latakia University gave an overview:
"Sheikh Abu Hassan & Sheikh Hassan spoke with complete transparency ..." 1) "priority is to impose security & safety... strictly forbidden to attack any person under the pretext of sectarianism ... attack private & public property ... enter or search homes except in special cases & by the uniformed General Security after showing their identities" Image
Nov 27, 2024 • 77 tweets • 31 min read
Capture of Ourm al-Sughra is an important step towards capturing 46th Reg Base, which will be crucial for solidifying gains and freeing up resources for the eastern axes. Now announcing full capture of the base, a big step towards securing the southern flank of this advance
Nov 1, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Lots of hype for an imminent Turkish offensive in NES that seems largely divorced from reality. Reminds me of the cycles of "new Idlib operation" that are based on flimsy evidence.

Struggle to see why this would happen after yesterday's at least not-negative Biden/Erdogan summit From the Turkish perspective, their big complaint has been the PKK commanders embedded in NES and they seem quite content with their recent policy of droning these commanders. Meanwhile their military is stretched thin with overseas deployments right now
Sep 20, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This horrible article is a great example of "analysts" manipulating "data" to fit a policy proposal and narrative they decided upon before researching.
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… The moment you rely on ACLED for Syria your evidence is worthless. There were *at least* 248 anti-regime attacks this year, the vast majority targeting regime and allies. Even when ACLED under-counts attacks it absurdly inflates casualty numbers (no numbers in pic 2 are right)
Oct 13, 2019 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Reports that #Russia & #Damascus will take #Manbij

Almost certainly confirmed & is easy enough, Russian-trained & equipped #SAA units have been stations just outside Manbij for almost a year now
#1st_Division also sent some reinforcements to #Qamishlo airport yesterday. Not originally planning for today's events but they're there now.
Oct 9, 2019 • 376 tweets • >60 min read
Almost daily #ISIS raids in central Syria now.

Three days ago Hani Hassan disappeared somewhere between #DeirEzZor & #Bukamal.

Hani was a member of the #SAA's 17th Division, 10th Reserve Regiment & comes from the largely Alawite village of Na'arah #Homs
Image Member of the 137th Artillery Regiment (claimed 17th Division although the unit is historically 7th Division) killed in Harbisha #DeirEzzor just east of #Sukhna #Homs wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3… Image
Jun 17, 2018 • 21 tweets • 15 min read
New thread on interesting SAA & Republican Guard facts/anecdotes I’m finding for an upcoming report. Mostly stuff from earlier in the war. Video shows #Chechen foreign fighters in Ballermoun, Aleppo on March 17, 2014

On 3/21 rebels here killed Maj General Samea Abbas, head of the 102nd Regiment RG. On 3/25 they killed Brig General Qasi Mohammad, commander of the 415th Battalion of the 102nd.