Gregory Waters Profile picture
Tracking Syrian Army & ISIS Badia via Facebook | Analyst @FightExtremism | Non-Resident Scholar @MEI_Syria | Bylines @MiddleEastInst @SyriaSource @NewlinesInst
Nov 1, 2021 11 tweets 3 min read
Lots of hype for an imminent Turkish offensive in NES that seems largely divorced from reality. Reminds me of the cycles of "new Idlib operation" that are based on flimsy evidence.

Struggle to see why this would happen after yesterday's at least not-negative Biden/Erdogan summit From the Turkish perspective, their big complaint has been the PKK commanders embedded in NES and they seem quite content with their recent policy of droning these commanders. Meanwhile their military is stretched thin with overseas deployments right now
Sep 20, 2021 6 tweets 3 min read
This horrible article is a great example of "analysts" manipulating "data" to fit a policy proposal and narrative they decided upon before researching.
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… The moment you rely on ACLED for Syria your evidence is worthless. There were *at least* 248 anti-regime attacks this year, the vast majority targeting regime and allies. Even when ACLED under-counts attacks it absurdly inflates casualty numbers (no numbers in pic 2 are right)
Jun 17, 2018 21 tweets 15 min read
New thread on interesting SAA & Republican Guard facts/anecdotes I’m finding for an upcoming report. Mostly stuff from earlier in the war. Video shows #Chechen foreign fighters in Ballermoun, Aleppo on March 17, 2014

On 3/21 rebels here killed Maj General Samea Abbas, head of the 102nd Regiment RG. On 3/25 they killed Brig General Qasi Mohammad, commander of the 415th Battalion of the 102nd.