🧵As the Government unveils plans to boost clean power, worth noting how much public sentiment has shifted to seeing clean energy not just as good, but as a no-brainer. All voter groups (inc Reform) are more likely to think renewables will cut cost of living than raise it
Opposition to building clean energy infrastructure is often distorted by those who are most vocal, but even more conservative segments of the electorate (highlighted in the red box) are more likely to support wind turbines in their area.
More interesting is when you ask those opposed what they'd do in response, with the biggest chunk saying they would do nothing, though some say they'd vote against the party proposing it.
This is where the idea of paying people who accept clean energy infrastructure comes into its own. We found in 2022 that a £25 a month reduction in Bills would reduce the small number of those opposed to wind turbines in their area by half.
The public see reducing energy bills as the top job of the Energy Security Minister's top job. The only other factor that comes close is energy security. We see this focus groups people bring up energy security far more often recently?
Why, the biggest shift seems to have come from Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The argument that 'we can't be dependent on mad men like Putin for our energy supply' is almost as compelling as bills as a reason that oil and gas are no longer seen as reliable energy sources.
Asked another way, nearly 7 in 10 members of the public think that investing in renewables to reduce reliance on gas imports from countries like Russia is a convincing argument.
Finally have shared before but it is striking that there is not a single constituency where concern about climate change drops below 50%. In Clacton (to pick a constituency at random) 68% are worried about it.
GB Energy is one of Labour's most popular policies to date for lots of reasons, but in particular because it taps both into people's concern about climate, desire to move to clean energy and belief the Government needs a more active role in energy markets.
Addendum - I add because it's a peculiarly British thing, one of the strongest 'moral' motivators for Brits to support climate action isn't actually protecting people (though that is convincing) protecting nature and above all animals comes out on top.
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🧵 Polls have now closed. Here's some of what I might think they might tell us. While much of the focus will be on the future of the PM, important though that is, I think the lessons will be way bigger & tell us a lot about the social contract, party system & future of the UK.
Having spoken to people in focus groups in about 40 (!) very different parts of Britain in the run up to these elections, there is one consistent theme 'this isn't working'. People are doing the right thing, playing by the rules and yet feel like the system is rigged against them
One thing it’s hard to capture unless you’ve done the groups is just how widespread that anger is. We’re used to talking about voters who feel left behind in deindustrialised towns, and they are unhappy, but young urban grads are just as frustrated by a system that doesn’t work
🧵Will get lost in geo-political turmoil & its domestic impacts, but the Govt's cohesion plan is imo well pithced & quite bold avoiding usual 'kumbaya' and placing more emphasis on responsibilities/ expectations necessary for a cohesive society than is normal in this type of work
The plan does a good job in identifying the cocktail of factors that have put strain on cohesion - extremism, levels of immigration, foreign actors, but also economic and technological change from deindustrialisation to living/working more online. On top of years of permacrisis
Ditto sections on resetting the social contract i think quite squarely where most of the public are - tolerance/openness to different views and cultures but also some fundamental expectations about integrating into our shared culture, respect for our traditions in values.
🧵Think a Tory message of 'we don't want centrists' is a real risk and a imo a misanalysis of choices. The evidence shows parties rarely succeed when they've told certain groups of voters they don't want them and the danger is the Tories are now doing that in both directions.
The Tories since the election are only being kept at 20% by voters that they have won back from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, it is a high risk strategy to tell these voters you're not interested in them.
But here is where I think misanalysis is - the debate assumes party lurching one way or the other on immigration. But median voter puts themselves between Reform & Tories on borders: suggesting there little path for a centre-right party without control first immigration message
🧵Combination of what's happened to polls in Denmark and Canada (again), along with our UK polling and focus groups over the past few weeks has made me revise upward what I think likelihood and impact of a Trump effect on UK electoral politics could be.
Firstly fair to say Trump has been close to the top of every focus group we've run in the New Year "“I feel he’s pushing us towards world war three" or [asked what the biggest threat to the UK was] "“I think Trump, full stop.”. People are genuinely worried/discombobulated/scared
We also know Trump is unpopular in the UK -40 net approval rating and don't like his domestic or foreign policy, but more than that it's the sense he as countless people have said versions. of in groups "makes me worried for the world my kids will grow up in"
More i think about it, more I think treating a potential break of the pledge not to raise income tax/NI/VAT as 'just another unpopular decision' is a big mistake. The (then) 2 main parties fought a whole election framed by their promises not to do it & implication for political trust of breaking it maybe deep.
This isn't a sin of omission, the promise was explicit. You can argue the promise was misguided (and imo there was always room for Labour to pledge to reverse the Hunt NI cuts and still won with a hefty majority and more room for manoeuvre.) But it was the promise.
The only way to break it without a severe trust penalty is to convince people the situation has changed so dramatically it has to - the Sunak NI rise of 2022 was swallowed because of Covid.
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
So will this be the case in more seats and more importantly whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically.
For Reform this places a greater premium on growing their support pool and reaching more “soft Reform voters, turning out a highly motivated base clearly works in fragmented local council elections but isn’t alone enough in the face of tactical voting.