🧵As the Government unveils plans to boost clean power, worth noting how much public sentiment has shifted to seeing clean energy not just as good, but as a no-brainer. All voter groups (inc Reform) are more likely to think renewables will cut cost of living than raise it
Opposition to building clean energy infrastructure is often distorted by those who are most vocal, but even more conservative segments of the electorate (highlighted in the red box) are more likely to support wind turbines in their area.
More interesting is when you ask those opposed what they'd do in response, with the biggest chunk saying they would do nothing, though some say they'd vote against the party proposing it.
This is where the idea of paying people who accept clean energy infrastructure comes into its own. We found in 2022 that a £25 a month reduction in Bills would reduce the small number of those opposed to wind turbines in their area by half.
The public see reducing energy bills as the top job of the Energy Security Minister's top job. The only other factor that comes close is energy security. We see this focus groups people bring up energy security far more often recently?
Why, the biggest shift seems to have come from Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The argument that 'we can't be dependent on mad men like Putin for our energy supply' is almost as compelling as bills as a reason that oil and gas are no longer seen as reliable energy sources.
Asked another way, nearly 7 in 10 members of the public think that investing in renewables to reduce reliance on gas imports from countries like Russia is a convincing argument.
Finally have shared before but it is striking that there is not a single constituency where concern about climate change drops below 50%. In Clacton (to pick a constituency at random) 68% are worried about it.
GB Energy is one of Labour's most popular policies to date for lots of reasons, but in particular because it taps both into people's concern about climate, desire to move to clean energy and belief the Government needs a more active role in energy markets.
Addendum - I add because it's a peculiarly British thing, one of the strongest 'moral' motivators for Brits to support climate action isn't actually protecting people (though that is convincing) protecting nature and above all animals comes out on top.
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3 in 4 say Britain's best days are behind us. The most common description of the country is 'Broken' & 53% think the next generation will have a worse life than our parents. What do Brits think has gone wrong? How do they want to fix it? And who are the 7 new tribes of Britain?
Our report 'Shattered Britain' is our most comprehensive dive into British public opinion & attitudes yet. We identify the new fault lines of public opinion + how they create 7 new segments of Britain. Highlights in thread & read it all/take the quiz here moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/resea…
First What are the drivers of malaise? 1) Lack of trust. Across the board trust in politics is low, people lack faith in both politicians character & ability to get Britain out of a rut. Majorities wouldn't trust each of the main party leaders to even watch their bag for them.
While it's clear the Government has made self inflicted missteps, I do think inheriting both public finances and public services being in a bad way, has made it hard for the government to pivot onto 'what people expect from a Labour Government' and fuelled disappointment A 🧵
It sounds overly simplistic but stands out in the polling. People think the Labour Party at it's best, looks after the working class, public services, tackles poverty. They elect Labour Government's to sort those things out - esp after the Tories.
In contrast people say the Tory party at its best creates economic stability (which is why the mini budget was so damaging). In fact people are twice as likely to say this for the Tories and Labour. So people elect Tory Govts to try and sort out the economy.
What might the starting point by for a rumoured new Corbyn led Party on the left? Our polling in today’s @NewStatesman finds it could take 10% of the vote. Reducing Labour’s share by 3 points and the Greens by 4. Extending Reform’s lead from 4 to 7.
With caveat this is hypothetical, people aren’t always good judges and so very much a starting point (and doesn’t take account of pacts etc) what seems to happen is a remaining chunk of Labour’s progressive vote peels off and the party cannibalises Green-left voters.
Where a new Corbyn led party performs most well is among 18-24 year olds. Our polling suggests it would lead among this group taking almost a third of the vote. Full New Statesman piece by @georgeeaton here well worth reading. newstatesman.com/politics/uk-po…
🧵Government response to the grooming gangs inquiry is facing a lot of criticism - but I think there’s a wider issue about why the govt’s approach risks missing the public mood and why people are turning to Reform and other parties- it’s reinforcing a sense of lack of agency
That lack of agency is driving political discontentment
At individual level - I don’t know what next bill hike will be/what will my mortgage be
At government level - why can’t they control border or build homes
International - what’s Trump gonna do next, escalation in Middle East
It’s not just that things seem unpredictable or volatile, but that at every level we seem powerless to shape those events or even to be able to work out our response to them - hence the real appeal of “take back control”
🧵This is a really key insight from Sam into the debate about where Labour ought to be thinking. I take the rather boring view that if you won with 35% of the vote you can’t afford to lose voters in any direction - a platform just pitched to one wing will lose you the other.
Different pollsters have slightly different splits of where Labour’s vote is going, our split is 12 Ref, 8 LD, 6 GRN, 4 Tory. Others have more going left or more going right.
But the point is by any analysis and I made this point on Newsnight last week Labour’s coalition is risking going the same way as the Tories 2019 one did - splitting in lots of different directions.
🆕 In advance of the White Paper on immigration we asked their public about their feelings on the numbers who come to the UK. Overall nearly two thirds would either want to see immigration slightly or significantly reduced, a number that has risen since last year.
Support for reduction spans political divides, but Reform UK and Conservative 2024 voters are more likely to say there should be significant reductions (NB corrected data labels, previous swapped Con/Lab -apols!)
From previous research post-GE 2024 we know that the public are less likely to support reductions when asked about specific groups who come to the UK for specific roles such as NHS or care workers (though that may not apply to e.g. dependents). Refugees are an exception to this.