Luke Tryl Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
🧵As the Government unveils plans to boost clean power, worth noting how much public sentiment has shifted to seeing clean energy not just as good, but as a no-brainer. All voter groups (inc Reform) are more likely to think renewables will cut cost of living than raise it Image
Opposition to building clean energy infrastructure is often distorted by those who are most vocal, but even more conservative segments of the electorate (highlighted in the red box) are more likely to support wind turbines in their area. Image
More interesting is when you ask those opposed what they'd do in response, with the biggest chunk saying they would do nothing, though some say they'd vote against the party proposing it. Image
This is where the idea of paying people who accept clean energy infrastructure comes into its own. We found in 2022 that a £25 a month reduction in Bills would reduce the small number of those opposed to wind turbines in their area by half. Image
The public see reducing energy bills as the top job of the Energy Security Minister's top job. The only other factor that comes close is energy security. We see this focus groups people bring up energy security far more often recently? Image
Why, the biggest shift seems to have come from Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The argument that 'we can't be dependent on mad men like Putin for our energy supply' is almost as compelling as bills as a reason that oil and gas are no longer seen as reliable energy sources. Image
Asked another way, nearly 7 in 10 members of the public think that investing in renewables to reduce reliance on gas imports from countries like Russia is a convincing argument. Image
Finally have shared before but it is striking that there is not a single constituency where concern about climate change drops below 50%. In Clacton (to pick a constituency at random) 68% are worried about it. Image
GB Energy is one of Labour's most popular policies to date for lots of reasons, but in particular because it taps both into people's concern about climate, desire to move to clean energy and belief the Government needs a more active role in energy markets. Image
Addendum - I add because it's a peculiarly British thing, one of the strongest 'moral' motivators for Brits to support climate action isn't actually protecting people (though that is convincing) protecting nature and above all animals comes out on top. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Luke Tryl

Luke Tryl Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @LukeTryl

Jan 28
🧵Think a Tory message of 'we don't want centrists' is a real risk and a imo a misanalysis of choices. The evidence shows parties rarely succeed when they've told certain groups of voters they don't want them and the danger is the Tories are now doing that in both directions.
The Tories since the election are only being kept at 20% by voters that they have won back from the Liberal Democrats and Labour, it is a high risk strategy to tell these voters you're not interested in them. Image
But here is where I think misanalysis is - the debate assumes party lurching one way or the other on immigration. But median voter puts themselves between Reform & Tories on borders: suggesting there little path for a centre-right party without control first immigration message Image
Read 9 tweets
Jan 27
🧵Combination of what's happened to polls in Denmark and Canada (again), along with our UK polling and focus groups over the past few weeks has made me revise upward what I think likelihood and impact of a Trump effect on UK electoral politics could be.
Firstly fair to say Trump has been close to the top of every focus group we've run in the New Year "“I feel he’s pushing us towards world war three" or [asked what the biggest threat to the UK was] "“I think Trump, full stop.”. People are genuinely worried/discombobulated/scared Image
We also know Trump is unpopular in the UK -40 net approval rating and don't like his domestic or foreign policy, but more than that it's the sense he as countless people have said versions. of in groups "makes me worried for the world my kids will grow up in"
Read 10 tweets
Oct 29, 2025
More i think about it, more I think treating a potential break of the pledge not to raise income tax/NI/VAT as 'just another unpopular decision' is a big mistake. The (then) 2 main parties fought a whole election framed by their promises not to do it & implication for political trust of breaking it maybe deep.
This isn't a sin of omission, the promise was explicit. You can argue the promise was misguided (and imo there was always room for Labour to pledge to reverse the Hunt NI cuts and still won with a hefty majority and more room for manoeuvre.) But it was the promise.
The only way to break it without a severe trust penalty is to convince people the situation has changed so dramatically it has to - the Sunak NI rise of 2022 was swallowed because of Covid.
Read 10 tweets
Oct 24, 2025
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
So will this be the case in more seats and more importantly whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically.
For Reform this places a greater premium on growing their support pool and reaching more “soft Reform voters, turning out a highly motivated base clearly works in fragmented local council elections but isn’t alone enough in the face of tactical voting.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 17, 2025
With Labour's struggling in Caerphilly, we conducted a focus group to try and understand why voters were moving away from Labour in a traditionally rock solid seat. By far the biggest driver, typified by the winter fuel allowance decision was a sense the party had lost its way. Image
To these voters the first year seemed little different to what had come before with the Tories - both in terms of policy and scandal. There was a sense of disappointment that the change people thought they were voting for last July hadn't materialised. Image
Again that sense that Labour were somehow not for 'working people' anymore and were making the cost of living crisis worse was a driver of frustration for the group - and the sense that the wealthiest were benefiting from it. Image
Read 9 tweets
Sep 20, 2025
A focus group of women in Pontefract last week depressingly captured how the cost of living was driving the mood of miserable Britain. I’ve talked before how it saps the joy out of life, but it’s more than that having to pull your kid out of karate classes is genuinely miserable Image
I think what people miss is the extent to which is creates anxiety everywhere, no one on moderate incomes feels safe, one bad bill can tip people used to being about fine if not comfortable into a situation where they’re using a food bank. Image
And while cost of living is treated like a 2022-2024 political issue the reality is most people are still going into supermarkets and being shocked by how much things cost. Image
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(