🧵As the Government unveils plans to boost clean power, worth noting how much public sentiment has shifted to seeing clean energy not just as good, but as a no-brainer. All voter groups (inc Reform) are more likely to think renewables will cut cost of living than raise it
Opposition to building clean energy infrastructure is often distorted by those who are most vocal, but even more conservative segments of the electorate (highlighted in the red box) are more likely to support wind turbines in their area.
More interesting is when you ask those opposed what they'd do in response, with the biggest chunk saying they would do nothing, though some say they'd vote against the party proposing it.
This is where the idea of paying people who accept clean energy infrastructure comes into its own. We found in 2022 that a £25 a month reduction in Bills would reduce the small number of those opposed to wind turbines in their area by half.
The public see reducing energy bills as the top job of the Energy Security Minister's top job. The only other factor that comes close is energy security. We see this focus groups people bring up energy security far more often recently?
Why, the biggest shift seems to have come from Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The argument that 'we can't be dependent on mad men like Putin for our energy supply' is almost as compelling as bills as a reason that oil and gas are no longer seen as reliable energy sources.
Asked another way, nearly 7 in 10 members of the public think that investing in renewables to reduce reliance on gas imports from countries like Russia is a convincing argument.
Finally have shared before but it is striking that there is not a single constituency where concern about climate change drops below 50%. In Clacton (to pick a constituency at random) 68% are worried about it.
GB Energy is one of Labour's most popular policies to date for lots of reasons, but in particular because it taps both into people's concern about climate, desire to move to clean energy and belief the Government needs a more active role in energy markets.
Addendum - I add because it's a peculiarly British thing, one of the strongest 'moral' motivators for Brits to support climate action isn't actually protecting people (though that is convincing) protecting nature and above all animals comes out on top.
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🧵There's a line of thought that Trump's victory means progressive causes are doomed in the court of public opinion. I don't think that's true, but I do think it shows more thought needs to be given to what ought to be a tautology but infact often isn't - inclusive progressivism
As someone who comes 'from the right' now spending a lot of time helping civil society understand/navigate public opinion, one thing has jumped out is how hard some parts (though not all) of the 'progressive ecosystem' can make it to be 'part of the club'
These are 5 reflections on how I think progressives could build a bigger tent. 1) Framing - it can sometimes feel like progressive causes use frames that actively reinforce us vs them dynamics & make it harder for people to get onboard with a cause they might otherwise support
🚨🧵 Failure to tackle hardship could be as damaging to Labour as the Lib Dems u-turn on tuition fees, new @Moreincommon_ research for @jrf_uk shows. Those who voted Labour in July have high expectations the Govt will tackle hardship, but many think things are going the wrong way
While the 2024 Labour Coalition splits on the importance of some issues such as immigration or housing, the cost of living and hardship are important for both those who voted Labour in 2019 and 2024 and those who switched from the Tories to Labour in 2024.
Levels of concern about people experiencing hardship are high from voters from across our seven segments. 84% of the public say they are concerned about those facing hardship - with no segment with less than 72% expressing concern.
🧵In my opening remarks talking about the state of democracy in the UK at #BattleFest this weekend I started by quoting Saruman to Gandalf - not because i'm a LoTR obsessive (though it's great). But because "the hour is later than you think". Here's why....
Firstly and most obviously too many people think democracy isn't working. Only 31% of Brits say democracy is working, with cynicism high across all voter (and non-voter) groups - but particularly those who backed non mainstream parties in July.
But this isn't just something on the more benign end of the scale - e.g. 'is FPTP the best electoral system'. It's deeper than that, three quarters of people think the British government is rigged to serve the rich and influential rather than the will of the British people.
🧵"Sincere" "Energising" "Personable" "Strong" "fresh" "Will fight for what she believes in" "not afraid" - Kemi Badenoch's conference pitch was pretty unanimously the favourite of our focus group of former Tory voters who left the party for Reform, the Lib Dems & Labour in July
Across the group people liked the fact that Kemi seemed more conversational and was genuinely passionate about what she believed, but also that her backstory meant she wasn't your typical Tory and she offered something new.
James Cleverly's speech was a close second for many of the group and strikingly it was for similar reasons - people found him relatable, genuine, real and 'you could see him running' - and particularly liked that he apologised and seemed 'normal' and had a different backstory.
🧵Bit of bumpy polling for the Government: in today's Playbook PM @e_casalicchio covers our finding that Starmer's approval has sunk to it's lowest level this year at minus 16 - down 27 points from his post election high: a short honeymoon with voters. What might be driving it?
Firstly the decision to means test the Winter Fuel Allowance seems to have become less popular over time with voters. 56% say they disapprove of the decision, compared to 23% who approve of it - though there is an age skew.
Voters also now seem to be somewhat sceptical about Starmer's country before party pledge, with 63% of the country and a quarter of those who voted Labour saying the Government is most interested in helping themselves and their allies rather than ordinary people
🧵What most jumps out from our charts on public attitudes to the riots is the "Reform finger" while supporters of other parties are broadly similar in rejecting a legitimate rationale for the riots, Reform voters are more likely than average to espouse sympathy for the motivation
The finger varies in size across specific questions, but looking across them Reform's vote splits into two camps, one slightly bigger populist group that shares mainstream democratic norms of most voters & a smaller radical right group who say the rioters speak for them
That split has implications for both Reform itself and the mainstream parties thinking about both how to deal with disorder and its causes. Nigel Farage's messaging thus far has been largely directed to that radical right group who embrace the 'legitimate concerns' argument.