It has been claimed that this is a video of North Korean infantry attacking in Kursk. A few of points:
Firstly, this isn't a human wave assault, as there's no fighting. Around 40 soldiers can be counted, which means it's likely a platoon on the move through an open field. 1/
The video quality is low, I can't visually confirm if they are NK soldiers. However, it's possible they are, as they should currently be in the area.
Other videos of similar actions from nearby locations have also been posted on Telegram channels.
All the videos posted today show roughly three platoons on the move at different times of day. The videos do not provide enough information of the tactics these units use in combat, so I can't comment on that unfortunately. Here's where the movement happened. 3/
Generally, it's unusual to see videos of even platoon-sized units moving through fields, so it might look like a lot. However, we only see a small fraction of what's happening on the ground from the videos, and there may not be many other ways to approach certain places. 4/
Thanks to @moklasen for geolocating the videos. Unfortunately, none the videos are clear enough to say for sure whether the soldiers are North Korean, so we have to wait for more proof. 5/5
It seems that the Ukrainian defenders in Hannivka may be encircled, as Russians pushed deeper into Uspenivka.
Based on geolocated footage and both Russian and Ukrainian Telegram channels, a Ukrainian detachment of unknown size has been cut off from the rest of the troops. 1/
The situation in Hannivka has reportedly been difficult before already, as the enemy could threaten the thin supply lines from both sides. Despite the obvious threats the Ukrainians seemingly were not given the order to retreat from the dangerous positions. 2/
Reportedly, efforts are underway to relieve the defenders, and the current situation is unclear. Succeeding in this operation depends a lot on how well the Russians are able to entrench themselves in Uspenivka. 3/
This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/
Already at the end of the summer, the situation seemed to be developing in a worrying direction. Especially in August, the Russian gains were relatively large, and it did not seem like the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk would significantly slow down the Russians. 2/
During the fall, while making progress in Ukraine, Russia also conducted several counterattacks in Kursk. Ukraine lost the western flank of the salient, while also losing positions in the east. Between September and November, Ukraine didn’t advance significantly in the area. 3/
Russia is advancing, but it’s also spending significant amounts of men and material in the process.
In this thread I’ll take a look on two important directions: Kurakhove and the concerning developments there, and the politically motivated Kursk counteroffensive. 1/
In Kurakhove, the Russians are closing in from almost all directions. They have entered the eastern part of the town, and it seems a couple of large Ukrainian fortified strongpoints have already fallen. Some troops also entered the village of Dalne. 2/
The latest advances are threatening the Ukrainian positions between Uspenivka and Yelyzavetivka. It’s unclear how firmly the Russians have been able to establish a presence in Dalne, but the fact that they’re getting there at all so quickly, is already an issue. 3/
The Russians recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front.
The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead, which I’ll discuss in this thread. 1/
The operation has two main focus areas, the Selydove-Kurakhivka area and the southern direction, where the enemy is currently advancing in the area between Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka. Both directions have their own problems and threats. 2/
In a short timeframe, Ukraine has very likely lost Selydove (over 21 000 pre-invasion residents), which is the largest city Russia has captured since the fall of Avdiivka. Simultaneously Russians also captured Hirnyk (10 000 pre-invasion residents). 3/
Recently, it has been said that North Korean troops in Ukraine are a sign of Russia’s weakness.
While this arrangement naturally proves once again that the war isn’t going as Russia initially wanted, I view this as a practical solution rather than just simple weakness. 1/
Russia's problems shouldn't, of course, be downplayed.
You don’t have to be Clausewitz to understand that the quick operation to subjugate Ukraine isn’t going very well, when you hear the words “North Korean troops will likely soon arrive in Kursk to help Russia”. 2/
However, this isn’t a relevant way to approach the matter. From Russia’s perspective, there are many benefits in cooperating with the North Koreans.
North Korea has already had a significant impact on Russia’s capabilities by selling them millions of artillery shells. 3/
In the last few days, the Russians have continued successful attacks against the western flank of the Ukrainian-controlled area in Kursk. The Ukrainian defences were breached and Russian troops were able to push relatively deep. 1/
Let’s take a brief look at the recent developments.
Russians have carried out multiple counterattacks in Kursk in September and October. The first major success was opening the land route between Glushkovo and Korenevo. For Ukraine, this was a problematic setback. 2/
From the Russian perspective, it was a pragmatic move, which was likely to happen at some point. It reduced the risk of Ukrainians cutting off and capturing Glushkovo and the area south of Seym river, as the supply didn’t solely depend on temporary bridges anymore. 3/