Hmmm.
There's something more than a little concerning about what's happening with Norovirus here.
A quick thread about Norovirus and its place within in the 'quad-demic'.
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Take a look at those black vertical lines.
That's the stage of the year we're at now in terms of data (the third week of November).
Recently, and most other years, the peak for Norovirus comes in the *the spring*.
But we're already at nearly the highest ever peak of cases.
*In November*
Take a look at the general trend pre-Covid.
Troughs in red, and peaks in green.
And then the trend in troughs and peaks since the arrival of Covid.
Take a look at the trend in cases late in November.
I hope it's peaking early.
Otherwise that's going to be *a lot* of Norovirus in the Christmas and New Year period.
But what could have caused a change in patterns like this?
I've been saying for years there's two things that happened when we let Covid spread freely:
First it damaged our bodies.
Second it damaged our collective responsibility to *not spread* illness.
People here all bought into the idea that everyone's going to get ill sooner or later, so it's ok to share infections.
It's ok to go to work sick.
It's ok to travel sick.
It's ok to send your kids to school sick.
But actually some people take it even further and think that it's *a positive good* to do those things.
I know it's crazy.
Yes. It's collective insanity.
But it has left us with bodies that are more vulnerable to illness and infection.
And it has left us with habits that *proliferate* illness like Norovirus.
Everything changed in 2021.
Everything.
Here's rolling annual cases.
If the next three months follow the same *shape* as most past winters, this graph will peak past 16,000.
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Oh yes... and do you know what else (other than Covid) can damage your body and your immune system and make you more vulnerable to secondary infections... yep.
Norovirus.
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When you see people posting that 2024 is going to be the hottest year on record, bear in mind that there’s an extra factor in there.
It’s not just about the temperatures.
The atmosphere’s capacity for heat energy is also increasing as global humidity levels rise.
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Let me explain why that's a big deal:
You may have heard the stat that for every degree of temperature increase, the air has the capacity to hold 7% more water vapour.
You might think that just means it's going to rain more.
Do you know who is most likely to experience a drug resistant infection?
Someone with immune dysfunction.
Why?
Think of it like a team effort.
When you start taking antibiotics, it's you AND the antibiotics fighting the infection.
But if your immune system is not pulling its weight in the fight, or if your body isn't distributing the antibiotics effectively throughout your body, or if your body's nutrient levels mean you're not producing the right building blocks for your immune system to work...
Then it's not both you and the antibiotics in the fight.
It's just the antibiotics.
And that makes it more likely for the infection to find a way to fight back.
In 2021 in England, public health decided that the way to get well was to get sicker, and that the way to get rid of disease was to catch it.
It's official policy.
They write it down and everything.
Since then...
All of those graphs are on the same timescale.
For some of them, the data only starts in 2021 - before then, they were rare, but are now becoming more and more commonplace.
I think there are two main causes of those spikes.
The first is that people here have been told they should do nothing to stop spreading and catching disease other than vaccination and handwashing.