tern Profile picture
Dec 14 19 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Hmmm.
There's something more than a little concerning about what's happening with Norovirus here.

A quick thread about Norovirus and its place within in the 'quad-demic'.
🧵 Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
Take a look at those black vertical lines.
That's the stage of the year we're at now in terms of data (the third week of November). Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
Recently, and most other years, the peak for Norovirus comes in the *the spring*.

But we're already at nearly the highest ever peak of cases.

*In November* Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
Take a look at the general trend pre-Covid.
Troughs in red, and peaks in green. Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
And then the trend in troughs and peaks since the arrival of Covid. Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
Take a look at the trend in cases late in November. Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
I hope it's peaking early.
Otherwise that's going to be *a lot* of Norovirus in the Christmas and New Year period.
But what could have caused a change in patterns like this? Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
I've been saying for years there's two things that happened when we let Covid spread freely:
First it damaged our bodies.
Second it damaged our collective responsibility to *not spread* illness.
People here all bought into the idea that everyone's going to get ill sooner or later, so it's ok to share infections.
It's ok to go to work sick.
It's ok to travel sick.
It's ok to send your kids to school sick.
But actually some people take it even further and think that it's *a positive good* to do those things.
I know it's crazy.
Yes. It's collective insanity.
But it has left us with bodies that are more vulnerable to illness and infection.
And it has left us with habits that *proliferate* illness like Norovirus.
Everything changed in 2021. Graph of norovirus cases from 2012 to present day. The peaks come in Spring, the troughs come in Autumn. The side before Covid peaks at about 200-300.  The side after Covid peaks 400-450.  And this year hasn't necessarily peaked yet.
Everything.
Here's rolling annual cases.
If the next three months follow the same *shape* as most past winters, this graph will peak past 16,000.
😕

rolling annual totals of norovirus, flattish at 7000 a year, until the drop off for 2020-2021, followed by a direct climb up to *12,000* by 2024
Oh yes... and do you know what else (other than Covid) can damage your body and your immune system and make you more vulnerable to secondary infections... yep.
Norovirus.

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More from @1goodtern

Dec 9
When you see people posting that 2024 is going to be the hottest year on record, bear in mind that there’s an extra factor in there.
It’s not just about the temperatures.
The atmosphere’s capacity for heat energy is also increasing as global humidity levels rise.
🧵 Image
Let me explain why that's a big deal:
You may have heard the stat that for every degree of temperature increase, the air has the capacity to hold 7% more water vapour.

You might think that just means it's going to rain more.
Read 22 tweets
Dec 6
This is a good point, and it illustrates the degree to which the powers that be are concerned with *crisis points*.

A quick thread on golf clubs.
🧵
As Cat rightly points out, Covid numbers have been high ALL YEAR.

But, in the eyes of politicians, the numbers have not been high enough at any one point to 'overload the system'.
Covid is the bag of golf clubs in your car boot/trunk.

Well, five bags.
Read 20 tweets
Dec 4
Every now and then I check back in on the progress of this graph of the proportion of 5-9 year old boys dying in England and Wales.

I keep wondering if that straight rising line that has been maintained for three years will stop rising.

It hasn't yet. Image
That's not the whole of the story of the last ten years, but it's the story of the last three.

Mortality rates in that age group had been generally dropping and dropping.

Then covid was allowed to run rampant, and since then, it's been one direction. Image
Like I said.
I keep checking back in hoping that the current trend has stopped.

But instead it keeps going. Image
Read 4 tweets
Dec 4
Do you know who is most likely to experience a drug resistant infection?

Someone with immune dysfunction.

Why?
Think of it like a team effort.
When you start taking antibiotics, it's you AND the antibiotics fighting the infection.
But if your immune system is not pulling its weight in the fight, or if your body isn't distributing the antibiotics effectively throughout your body, or if your body's nutrient levels mean you're not producing the right building blocks for your immune system to work...
Then it's not both you and the antibiotics in the fight.

It's just the antibiotics.

And that makes it more likely for the infection to find a way to fight back.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 3
In 2021 in England, public health decided that the way to get well was to get sicker, and that the way to get rid of disease was to catch it.
It's official policy.
They write it down and everything.

Since then... Multiple infections showing huge spikes since 2021  And they're not all coming down.
All of those graphs are on the same timescale.

For some of them, the data only starts in 2021 - before then, they were rare, but are now becoming more and more commonplace.
I think there are two main causes of those spikes.

The first is that people here have been told they should do nothing to stop spreading and catching disease other than vaccination and handwashing.
Read 21 tweets
Nov 26
Aargh.
So here we are again with a government white paper about bullying <checks notes> sorry, encouraging people who are long term sick into work.

Let's break some of this malicious incompetence down into bite sized chunks so we can understand it...

gov.uk/government/new…
What's the heart of the problem?

The heart of the problem is here: its employment rate fall over the last five years, which has been largely driven by a significant rise in the number of people out of work due to long-term ill health
But that word garbage sentence is mostly there to confuse.
Read 25 tweets

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