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AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
@thekookreport
Dec 14 • 48 tweets • 19 min read • Read on X
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🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Vodafone DA, stock market frustration, and much more in the Weekly Image
🚀 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW 🚀

🌐 Vodafone Deal:
10-yr agreement, >20 Mbps speeds, covers 60+ markets. France locked w/ #1 (Orange) & #2 (Altice). A game-changer for MNO partnerships!

📡 Global Expansion:
Gateways going live globally. Big 2025 marketing push incoming. 🌍

💸 Revenue Potential:
DB sees $4.5B by 2030 (50/50 split). Long-term deals boosting EXIM financing. 📈

📶 Tech Edge:
Spectral efficiency now 4 bps/Hz. Adaptive modulation = reliable satellite-to-phone connections.

🛡️ Military & Regulatory Wins:
DoD & Navy partnerships in play. FCC fast-tracking permits. 🛰️

📈 TAM Growth:
Beyond mobile – laptops, AR/VR devices, & more. ASTS redefines connectivity!

🔥 Competitive Advantage:
Starlink? Meet your match. ASTS's commercial moat keeps growing.

🎥 Narrative Power:
Documentaries & killer visuals drive the $ASTS story forward.

#ASTS #SpaceMobile #SatelliteBroadband
🌐Vodafone DA

- 10 Year Agreement Covers Vodafone Home Markets as well as other markets via its Partner Markets Program
- Vodafone operates in more than 20 markets and has partnerships that cover another 40 markets
- Confirmed speeds of greater than 20 Mbps on 5 Mhz of spectrum
- The service: These gateways will then connect to Vodafone's existing network infrastructure to route the broadband data to users' devices, as well as to access third-party Apps and the Internet

businesswire.com/news/home/2024…Image
🪶Coverage of Vodafone

A gateway is being installed in a first country - to be disclosed next year. ASTS disclosed, “We are installing five gateways in the United States and have gateways installed or nearing completion in half a dozen other countries.”

spacenews.com/ast-spacemobil…
📣Vodafone Team Comments

I cannot imagine the complexity here. Congrats to everyone. It would take people leaning in to get something done this quickly

Image
💰Sell Side Research

DB out after Vodafone. 50/50 revenue share. DB doing math that says $4.5bn of revenue by 2030. Image
🏦Vodafone and EXIM

Long-term contracts give a form of credit support that will help EXIM financing down the line

🪑Anpanman Breaks It Down

A very good conversation about the Vodafone deal

🥰Global Coverage

A reminder of just how large ASTS's addressable market is, and the progress in covering it thus far. This is the commercial moat.

Image
🙋‍♂️Emoji Visualization

Imagine entering each country one by one without a channel partner?
Image
🏰Commercial Moat

Scale matters

Image
👀Another Great visualization

Image
🧮Math Exam

Back to the game of "what it is not worth"

Image
🗼Block 1 Deployment

As we continue to learn about the process of approvals, a little more "learning" occurs (code for wrong initial expectations). Confirming Block 1 is deployed seems like an obviously pre-condition for the FCC to want before authorization an STA

licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/downloa…Image
🇬🇧ASTS Goes To UK

Remember how FUDsters said global operations couldn't happen?

advanced-television.com/2024/12/09/ast…Image
✖️0⃣Not A Zero

A nice update from Hennessy Funds, which was among the first institutions to come out on $ASTS a year ago

hennessyfunds.com/insights/Focus…Image
🅰️Seeking Alpha

This write-up hits all the points. The author is a civil engineer.

seekingalpha.com/article/474409…
🎇Tut Recap

A great recap of what $ASTS has accomplished in 2024

🎙️The Narrative

It's good to think critically about the events over 12 months, and then the expected months 12 months hence

Image
🐣Knowledge Gap

Always remember how much more you know than the average investor

Image
🏃‍♂️Spectral Efficiency

ASTS has been disclosing data transmission rates that imply 4 bits per second of spectral efficiency. Original estimates were done with 2.5 bits per second Image
🐈‍⬛Cat Attack

We will discuss this on the Spaces

Image
🇨🇭UBS Conference Nugget

Goes back to the TAM related to taking back terrestrial assets and putting it to satellite

Image
🍔FirstNet Nothing Burger

No splashing PR but continued talk about satellites

Image
🚒FirstNet Still Talking About D2D

🍎Apple Showing TAM

Everything will be connected Image
🦐Apple Capacity

$GSAT's new system is just not in the same league.

Image
📶More Cellular Demand

This is going to need full broadband, not $GSAT.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…Image
🐢First Mover vs. Best Mover

A surprising chart that just shows how quickly customers adopt "better"

Image
🗻First Mover vs. Best Mover

Good summary here using my favorite example of VHS vs. BetaMax.

advanced-television.com/2024/12/12/sta…Image
💀Competing is Futile

Pack it up. It's too hard.

Image
🤣TSLAQ and ASTSQ

A good trip down memory lane just to see how Wall Street can miss by a mile

🍄AI Is Not Hallucinating

As per the above, interesting that Grok seems to know ASTS's position

Image
🛸Why ASTS Is Better

A great diagram showing the differences in the beams.

Image
🔎Another Visual of Beams

Image
👩‍⚖️Starlink Truth In Advertising

MNOs are sobering up.

Image
⚓️US Navy Contract

This would make sense

Image
🪖ASTS In Crystal City

Chris Ivory (AST CCO) will speak at the annual Department of Defense (DoD) Commercial Satcom Workshop taking place Dec 16-18 in Crystal City.
🤸US Gets Friendly

FAA is streamlining launch, but are we seeing overall streamlining at the FCC as well?

🐇ASTS STA Permits

Catse notes that applications are getting faster attention. FCC employees looking to avoid getting DOGE'd? "What did you do last week?"

Image
📲FCC Talking about SCS

FCC set the stage for some positive change

🇮🇳ASTS Investing In India

Our next launch is in India, we are partnered with Vodafone, and we have a large engineering center. Tut tracking closely.

🛰️SDA Contracts

A detailed analysis about the SDA opportunity

🔥SDA Heating Up

Good slides as the SDA talks more and more about their program

🤌Government RFP

It's happening. Soon.

Image
🚨Regulator Crack Down

Rollout with SALT has been delayed. And why? "Interference with neighboring countries."

Image
Image
🤏Globalstar

Recap of their Analyst day

🎬Spacemob Documentary

Chris comes out with another banger. This story will be told again and again. Abel is a great inventor.

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More from @thekookreport

AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 7
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

$ASTS gets industry recognition as well as a lot of attention at AT&T's analyst day, as much more... Image
🍰Summary

Achievements and Industry Position:
Recognition: $ASTS was named the "2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year."

Industry Alignment: Positioned at a critical intersection of technology and connectivity trends, such as satellite communication.
Trading Sentiment:

Market Dynamics: Noted trading patterns where $ASTS is seen as a pair trade against Starlink news, with investors reacting to perceived competition.

Zoomed-Out Perspective: Investors are encouraged to focus on the long-term structural advantages and milestones of $ASTS.
Competitive Insights:

Starlink Comparisons: Differences highlighted between $ASTS's higher speeds and capacity versus Starlink's shared-beam model.

Investor Challenges: Difficulty for institutions to invest in $ASTS due to pre-revenue status and competition with Elon Musk's ventures.

Satellite Operations: Updates on AST5000 ASIC development for enhanced performance in space environments.

Regulatory Milestones: Progress in FCC approvals, including spectrum leasing arrangements and compliance.
Partnerships:

AT&T Collaboration: AT&T's strategy emphasizes $ASTS's role in augmenting terrestrial services. AT&T and Verizon's spectrum contributions bolster $ASTS's offering.

Catalysts and Future Outlook:
Upcoming Catalysts: Regulatory approvals, new launches (e.g., Bluebird 2), government contracts, and initial operations/revenue.

Long-Term Vision: Potential for significant revenue growth and impact on mobile network operators' subscriber value.

Geopolitical and Global Context:
International Developments: Regulatory challenges in Namibia for Starlink, opportunities in Europe, and competitive positioning in the Indian market.

MNO Partnerships: The strategic choice to collaborate with mobile network operators ensures smoother market entry and broader adoption.
Investment Insights:

Valuation Potential: The potential for exponential growth if milestones are achieved, highlighting parallels with historical tech successes.

Market Awareness: Awareness and investment traction are still in the early stages, with significant room for growth.
🏆2024 Emerging Space Company of the Year

Well-earned recognition for $ASTS after a pivotal year of execution

Read 49 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Dec 1
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

$ASTS is set to receive FCC approval, Starlink gets to pursue its defective system, FUD Busting, and much more on this week's Weekly Image
Week in Review Highlights:
Global Expansion and Partnerships: Permits filed in Turkey with Vodafone. Notable collaborations with AT&T, including mentions of their strategic investments and upcoming Analyst Day.

Competitive Landscape: Critical analysis of Starlink's limitations, regulatory challenges, and service model, highlighting $ASTS's edge in technology and market positioning.

Market Opportunities: Emphasis on the scalability and economic potential of commercial space applications, with $ASTS poised to revolutionize telecommunications, especially in underserved areas.

Investment Case for $ASTS: Focus on its superwholesale model, strategic partnerships, and visionary leadership driving innovation.
Financial health underlined by significant cash reserves and successful satellite launches.

Key Takeaways from DB Conference: Observations on industry lethargy versus $ASTS's dynamic approach, with leadership seen as focused and mission-driven.
Analysis of historical failures in satellite
communications and how $ASTS is breaking that mold.

Regulatory and Competitive Insights: Updates on FCC approvals, spectrum battles, and the impact of lower orbital altitudes on satellite longevity and efficiency.
Starlink's challenges with interference and its perceived struggles to compete with $ASTS.

Technological Innovation: Discussion on space-based power generation and other potential non-communication applications for $ASTS's technology.

Market Trends and Sentiment: Shift in generalist investor sentiment towards space stocks, with $ASTS emerging as a long-term growth story.
Analysis of adjacent industries and their role in $ASTS's success, including military and government programs.

Broader Space Economy: Highlights on the growing valuation of space companies like SpaceX and the potential for market disruption in the telecommunications sector.
🇹🇷Testing Permits Continue

$ASTS permits with Vodafone are filed in Turkey. We're going global.

Read 61 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 24
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

The wet dream of shorts is about to turn into a nightmare for them. I will also try to do a Spaces to cover these topics tomorrow and will schedule it when I know my schedule. Image
🤘Key Highlights:

Sources and Uses of Funds: Analysis suggests the company may be pursuing less dilutive financing strategies, signaling long-term confidence.
Government funding, MNO prepayments, and EXIM support remain key potential catalysts.

Growing Interest: $ASTS presentations are drawing larger crowds, with institutional investors starting to take notice.

Market Sizing: The satellite market potential, especially in D2D communications, is vast, with both consumer and military applications on the horizon.

Short Seller Debunking: Recent short theses are critiqued, highlighting gaps in their assumptions and reinforcing the long-term investment thesis for $ASTS.

Technical Developments: Continued testing of BW-3 and updates on beam size efficiencies showcase $ASTS's technological edge.

Leadership Moves: CEO Abel Avellan's estate planning transaction signals confidence in $ASTS's future while aligning shareholder interests.

Policy & Regulation: Changes at the FCC, including new leadership, are likely to shape the regulatory landscape favorably for satellite communications.
ℹ️Sources & Uses

Let's start with a review of what matters a lot for a stock like $ASTS - it's balance sheet.

What's interesting is that since earnings, the Company has not used the ATM. There are two paths I'd take if I were CFO (and I'm not out of my league to say I could be a CFO).

Path 1: Hit the ATM. Once you start using it, just get the whole thing done and be over with it. They obviously did not choose Path 1. Why?

Path 2: Do what you need to secure yourself and not gamble, but realize you have something else in store to minimize dilution. MNO pre-payments, EXIM, 5G Funds.

I thought Path 1 was the prudent path. It appears that a prudent company has chosen Path 2. The fact that Abel did his personal liquidity transaction after potentially suggests that ATM is done for the time being.
Read 46 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 18
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Bezos finds a new way to get his rockets off. That and much more on this week's "Week in Review..." Image
🤠In this week's Review, you'll find the following topics

Highlights:
Earnings Call Summary:
Best earnings report to date.
Signed Multi-Launch Agreement (MLA) for 60 launches.
Successful initial operations of Block 1 satellites.
Key partnerships with AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten confirmed.
Progress on government contracts, including significant EXIM financing application.
Updated CAPEX guidance indicates a path to cash flow positivity.

Strategic and Operational Updates:
$ASTS announced regulatory progress and plans for continuous constellation coverage by 2026 (ahead of market expectations).
Multi-launch strategy diversifies launch providers (SpaceX, Blue Origin, ISRO).
Detailed updates on individual launches, including upcoming ISRO and SpaceX flights and Blue Origin’s New Glenn potential.
A new schedule tracker highlights launch cadence.

Market and Investor Sentiment:
Stock faced short-term volatility, attributed to perceived manipulation post-MLA announcement.
Jim Cramer maintains a cautious stance, while community members argue the stock's upside potential.
Discussion on how the market underestimates $ASTS's long-term network monetization potential.

Military and Government Opportunities:
Growing government/military interest, including NATO discussions and SDA contracts.
Non-communication use cases (e.g., radar, GPS, phased arrays) offer additional growth areas.

Regulatory and Financial Progress:
FCC filings for AT&T and Verizon enable testing and spectrum allocation.
EXIM financing discussed as a key component of long-term low-cost capital structure.

Competitive Landscape:
Updates on SpaceX’s growing valuation and capacity, alongside Starlink challenges.
Industry dynamics highlighted by the collapse of rivals like Rivada.

Global Expansion:
Focus on India and the Middle East, with strategic moves like the ISRO launch providing market footholds.
💵$ASTS Reports Earnings

This was the best earnings report $ASTS has given. The key points are:

- MLA signed for 60 launches
- Successful initial operations of Block 1
- Initial FCC filings for AT&T and Verizon done
- 3 new government contracts
- EXIM application filed and expect more MNO money soon
- Remaining CAPEX for cash flow positivity is $120-170MM
- The SDA (military contract) is an example of something that can grow into huge deals
- Expect MNO deals soon (Rakuten already done)

But don't ask me, here is all the news that's fit to print:

x.com/spacanpanman/s…
Read 52 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 10
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Trump, Founder of the Space Force, is back...a tough week for the stock price, but many fundamental events are ahead for next week. Read on. Image
😶‍🌫️This week will cover the following:

ASTS Earnings Preview
I'll share my thoughts on what could happen on the Earnings Call on Thursday

ASTS Keeps Scaling
Expect updates on accelerated plans to launch commercial service soon.

Potential ASTS Acquisition
Speculation on Amazon or Google potentially acquiring $ASTS for telecom assets, similar to big tech’s entry into other markets.

Kamala Trade Impact
Market expects government support for SpaceX, but 70% of the U.S. market is tied to $ASTS.

$ASTS as DoD's Ace
Significant potential for ASTS in U.S. defense applications, backed by recent insights from a UT Austin Professor.

Defense Applications Expand
More details on ASTS’s defense applications from expert sources.

Ariane BB2 Launch
Anticipation of at least one launch with Ariane, according to sources.

Short Sellers on ASTS
Shorts are targeting ASTS, comparing it to Starlink, but investors remain bullish on $ASTS’s unique position.

Government Opportunities
ASTS is well-positioned for national security contracts, highlighted by a recent SDA award.

FCC Support & 5G Expansion
Commissioner Brendan Carr supports technology developments benefiting ASTS and the DoD.

Nokia 6G Summit
ASTS featured as a critical technology asset for defense applications at the summit.

Canadian Support
Canadian Space Agency backs ASTS, with Bell Canada also showing support.

New Zealand Partnership Misstep
Some concerns over a New Zealand telecom partnership that may not align with ASTS’s strategic goals.

Starlink's Misleading Claims
Allegations of Starlink overstating service accuracy, raising questions for private investors.

Bezos and Blue Origin
Bezos’s New Glenn rocket is nearing launch readiness, a significant milestone for Blue Origin.

Apple and Globalstar Partnership
Overview of Apple’s $1.5 billion satellite smartphone investment with Globalstar.

KOOKGPT Expansion
KOOKGPT is accepting blank term sheets for new AI company initiatives, with standard NVCA terms preferred.
💰 $ASTS Earnings Preview

This is the summary of what I expect could be covered on the earnings call, as well as separate events that could follow shortly thereafter Image
Image
Read 29 tweets
AT&TheKOOKReport Profile picture
Nov 3
🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨

Good things are coming, read for more. Image
📢 ASTS Milestone Announcement

AST SpaceMobile is signaling exciting developments ahead! They’re “getting ready to operate and provide commercial services,” suggesting the start of significant milestones.

🎙️ Interview with Scott

Scott discussed ASTS's goal to get 45-60 satellites operational in the U.S., hinting that they may provide guidance for this in 2025.

Read 19 tweets

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