Thread by @Jonpy99

1/ We got new footage pf the 103rd/2546th Central Tank Reserva Base, and it's time to look into it! When it comes to essy to repair equioment, this base is almost done! 🧵

2/ Before you continue, first check @CovertCabal's video on this with the footage he was able to buy:

3/ Here you have the remaining numbers, not including their condition:

4/ Which you can find here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

5/ With that said, let's take a closer look at this base! First of all, let's talk about BMPs. They always looked like trash here, yet they keep pulling them out at a steady rate.

6/ There were 613 BMPs here before the war, mainly BMP-1s. By October 2023 there remained 359. In May 2024, 300. This September, just 205. That's 23,75 less BMPs per month, during the last 5 months. See the evolution over the years:

7/ Looking at them, they either are cannibalized for whatever spare parts they can get from them, or send straight to BTRZs to be repaired. You can see there was a lot of recent movement, based on the track marks on the ground.

8/ Remains to be seen how long will this steady rate endure, but if that were to be, this base would be entirely out of BMPs in 9 months!

9/ This also reinforces my belief that we'll also see a lot less remaining BMPs at other bases like the 6018th or 22nd next time we get sat images of them:

https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1860694593106329866

10/ They possibly removed a lot more BMPs from the main section during October, right after this image was taken, based on Sentinel and more recent, but worse quality images:

11/ As for tanks, he already explained the reasoning over the local scrapyard. It was a literal scrapyard before the war, but since then tanks have been remade there. However, I'm not including these because despite having their turrets back, I doubt they are operative in any way

12/ Without that, they barely take any tank from here. And that makes sense, as they're mostly T-64s which Russia can't manufacture. They were made in Ukraine, and that's where the know-how remains.

13/ Regarding BTRs and BRDM-2s, they barely took just 8 BTR-70s since the war started, despite moving them around the base. 182 BTR-70s prewar, 174 now.

14/ They mostly look good, so I'm not sure why is that when at other places they do take older BTRs.

15/ Regarding BRDM-2s, no changes, 53 prewar, 23 since 2022.

16/ Finally, it looks like they were also either repairing or pulling apart for spares some armored vehicles at the repair workshop, but the clouds obscure that part of the base:

17/ And that's it! Very hopeful stuff. As usual, it may look like a lot of stuff is still in Russian reserves, but it's mostly just junk useful only as spare parts or after a thorough and time and money intensive refurbishment.

18/ I'm already working on counting the 2544th, and after that a summary of the situation at the end of 2024.

19/ Once again special thanks to @CovertCabal and @HighMarsed, but also to @waffentraeger, @Ath3neN0ctu4, @ukrainecontrol, @hizzo_jay, @AS_22im and many more! See you soon!