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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Dec 15 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
This was a very interesting operation by Ukraine to destroy a 'partisan immobilized' fuel train with Switchblade 600's, to burn the fuel.

The burning fuel will require that the annealed rails under the cars to be replaced to prevent derailments.

RuAF rail vulnerability🧵
1/
This will require a Russian military railway service train to be deployed to this spot for possible future Ukrainian Switchblade 600 follow up strikes.

2/
I've mentioned the vulnerability of Russian trains to Switchblade 600 back in April 2022.

A Switchblade 600 with a Javelin warhead is powerful enough to destroy the control section of a rail engine...
3/
...or can be flown into the forward train wheel assembly, blowing it to h--l and causing the derailment of a moving train.

The stated range of a Switchblade 600 loitering munition is 40km.

This means when it reaches 40km it has...

4/
...dozens of minutes to search an area for a target.

If you know exactly where a target is, like a stopped train, the Switchblade 600 munition can fly more than 70 km in a straight line using elevated radio repeater support or forward controllers.

5/ Image
While you can do the same mission with a GMLRS.

A low flying Switchblade 600 can be launched far closer to, or even behind, enemy lines to ravage railway operations.

This gives the munition a bigger anti-train footprint behind Russian lines.

6/
Despite being available to Ukraine for over a year, this strike appears to be the first time that Switchblade 600 was used for the railway interdiction role I mentioned in April of 2022.

Hopefully we will see more such Ukrainian train strikes.

7/7 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 15
This is Russian exceptionalism in action again.

The Putin Regime took old riverine tankers - Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft-239 - to sea:

1/
 unian.ua/world/richkovi…
"According to Andriy Klymenko , head of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies , both vessels are very old and have a "river" class, which implies certain limitations.

2/
He published and commented on the relevant map, which indicates the approximate location of the tanker disaster.

"It is about 8 miles from the seaport of Taman (a transshipment port south of the Kerch Strait).

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 8
I've been thinking on what is going on to reduce Russia VKS glide bomb attacks as shown

There are many possible reasons.

Fewer Russian glide bomb drops 🧵
1/
My first thought was to wonder if:

"Are we seeing Russian supply chain problems across its PGM production base due to foreign exchange shortages?"

Russia's Shaheed clones have new and inferior Chinese servo motors.⬇️
2/
I asked around and I was pointed to Ukrainian GNSS (AKA global positioning satellite signals) Spoofing as a more likely cause of the Shaheed-136 clone failures.

Also, that would have nothing with reduced glide bomb drops.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
In another round of very useful translation, @sambendett points out the Russians have learned that drones are how combat power is measured in the 21st century.

The Russians didn't share drone tech with the SAA at scale.

Ukraine did with the HTS starting in June 2024.
1/
So the Assad regime fell.

Had Russia sent it's 'troublesome' drone units to Syria, rather than in meat grinder infantry assaults. Things might have turned out differently.

Dmitry "Goodwin" Lysakovsky was a legendary Russian extremist who became a drone
2/
...operator in the DPR army and stayed when it became Russian. 

"Goodwin" ran cross ways of his regimental commander for calling him out for dealing drugs to his own troops on social media.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
The Russian use of FPV's to kill Ukrainian boat drones was well established six months ago.

1/
Ukraine gave the Russian navy some really big reasons to go there dating to that time.

Boat-Drones toting large heat seeking missiles to kill helicopters.

2/
That reason is why Russian naval helicopters have been carrying large numbers of FPV's since September 2024.

Why Western Navies have ignored these trends is a very good question for various Western governments.🤔

3/
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
Mud season is over in Kursk.

Mobik frostbite & trench foot season is here, like has been blindingly obvious for the entire war.

Frostbite & Trench Foot 🧵

1/
The lack of Russian winter uniforms and waterproof winter boots in the "Professional" Russian Army was endemic in the winter of 2021-to-2022.

2/
The Wagner merc & Mobik filled winter of 2022-to-2023 was worse.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 5
While these bases in Syria are a top Russian logistical priority, per the 🧵below.

The issue is the Russian version of the West's expeditionary warfare model is failing in the age of drones.

1/
Ukraine's HUR has had a drone warfare presence in Syria since June 2024 per Business Insider.

HUR spent that time teaching Syrian opposition militia how to do AFU style drone warfare.

Short form - The Syrian opposition has organic drone airpower.

2/
I've beaten on the drum for literally years about how Western analysts and the DC military-industrial complex types in particular don't understand small/cheap drones because it is against their interest to do so.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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