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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Dec 16 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
Ukraine’s claims to have produced 100 Peklo (Hell) cruise missiles over the past three months.

This works out to about 1.1 Peklo a day, but manufacturing production lines don't work like that.

Peklo Manufacturing 🧵

1/
 pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
The infographic figure below is a typical commercial production line curve.

Ukraine's stated production and use of the Peklo (Hell) cruise missile marks it as being on the 'start of production to market entry' ramp up part of the curve below.

2/ Image
Over two dozen Peklo were shown in this public unveiling by Ukraine, which is over 1/4 of the stated production to date.

How many were pre-production prototypes or low rate initial pilot production models isn't knowable.
3/
A ramp up production curve implies a AFU production rate something like the following:

1st month - 10 Peklo drone-missiles
2nd Month - 30 Peklo drone-missiles
3rd month - 60 Peklo drone-missiles

4/
How high the Peklo ramp up will get to isn't knowable. Ukraine wants 30,000 drone missile & other missiles produced a year in 2025.

At 60 a month, the Peklo would be 720 of that 30K number.

I'm expecting 360 a month is the Peklo's ultimate production rate target.

5/
Ukraine doesn't control its air space, so any manufacturing of the Peklo has to be highly dispersed with a final assembly line either in Western Ukraine or Poland.

I expect, based on the WW2 German aircraft industry example, the assembly line is in Western Ukraine.

5/ Image
Image
Image
Recent scholarship on German WW2 aircraft industrial Mfg dispersal showed the massive outsourcing efforts hugely increased the productivity of the Nazi economy.

These supply chain efforts layed the foundations of the "German economic miracle"
6/
 madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/36784/1/Schern…Image
Unlike WW2 Nazi aircraft, the Peklo included widely dispersed manufacturing with 3D/additive manufacturing techniques and simple/quick assembly & testing in the product design.

(photo H/T @TheDeadDistrict)
7/ Image
All high end 3D/AD manufacturing units - like this Fabrisonic SonicLayer 7200 industrial ultrasonic metal printer with integrated CNC tools - need is a flat piece of concrete, electricity and metal printer media.

Any 'big box strip mall or warehouse will suffice for Peklo.

8/ Image
This dispersed drone-missile manufacturing effort by Ukraine is one of the biggest reasons why Russia's strategic bombing campaign is systematically going after Ukraine's power grid.

No Electricity = No Drone-missiles.

9/
Why Ukraine has not mirrored Russia's anti-power grid strategic bombing campaign to reduce Russian missile & drone production is a question that has yet to be answered.🤔


10/10 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 17
I've been involved with three US Army FMTV reset programs.

So this newest report from Ukraine's Defense Express on the the repairability problems with Russian AFV's out of their reserves is so much fun to share with you all.

1/ Image
Defense Express pulled an article from the No. 10 issue of the Russian magazine "Material and Technical Support" on how horrid the vehicles coming out of reserve are plus problems with battle damaged reserve vehicles.

2/
 en.defence-ua.com/analysis/repai…
The 2nd paragraph starts with this:

"The central takeaway from this publication is that the actual repairability of Russian tanks is 3-5 times lower than what is claimed in official manuals. This discrepancy has extended repair times for equipment by at least 15-20%."

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 15
This is Russian exceptionalism in action again.

The Putin Regime took old riverine tankers - Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft-239 - to sea:

1/
 unian.ua/world/richkovi…
"According to Andriy Klymenko , head of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies , both vessels are very old and have a "river" class, which implies certain limitations.

2/
He published and commented on the relevant map, which indicates the approximate location of the tanker disaster.

"It is about 8 miles from the seaport of Taman (a transshipment port south of the Kerch Strait).

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 15
This was a very interesting operation by Ukraine to destroy a 'partisan immobilized' fuel train with Switchblade 600's, to burn the fuel.

The burning fuel will require that the annealed rails under the cars to be replaced to prevent derailments.

RuAF rail vulnerability🧵
1/
This will require a Russian military railway service train to be deployed to this spot for possible future Ukrainian Switchblade 600 follow up strikes.

2/
I've mentioned the vulnerability of Russian trains to Switchblade 600 back in April 2022.

A Switchblade 600 with a Javelin warhead is powerful enough to destroy the control section of a rail engine...
3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 8
I've been thinking on what is going on to reduce Russia VKS glide bomb attacks as shown

There are many possible reasons.

Fewer Russian glide bomb drops 🧵
1/
My first thought was to wonder if:

"Are we seeing Russian supply chain problems across its PGM production base due to foreign exchange shortages?"

Russia's Shaheed clones have new and inferior Chinese servo motors.⬇️
2/
I asked around and I was pointed to Ukrainian GNSS (AKA global positioning satellite signals) Spoofing as a more likely cause of the Shaheed-136 clone failures.

Also, that would have nothing with reduced glide bomb drops.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
In another round of very useful translation, @sambendett points out the Russians have learned that drones are how combat power is measured in the 21st century.

The Russians didn't share drone tech with the SAA at scale.

Ukraine did with the HTS starting in June 2024.
1/
So the Assad regime fell.

Had Russia sent it's 'troublesome' drone units to Syria, rather than in meat grinder infantry assaults. Things might have turned out differently.

Dmitry "Goodwin" Lysakovsky was a legendary Russian extremist who became a drone
2/
...operator in the DPR army and stayed when it became Russian. 

"Goodwin" ran cross ways of his regimental commander for calling him out for dealing drugs to his own troops on social media.
3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 7
The Russian use of FPV's to kill Ukrainian boat drones was well established six months ago.

1/
Ukraine gave the Russian navy some really big reasons to go there dating to that time.

Boat-Drones toting large heat seeking missiles to kill helicopters.

2/
That reason is why Russian naval helicopters have been carrying large numbers of FPV's since September 2024.

Why Western Navies have ignored these trends is a very good question for various Western governments.🤔

3/
Read 4 tweets

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