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Charles Lister Profile picture
@Charles_Lister
Dec 16 • 12 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
2 weeks before #Assad fell, I wrote that the US mustn't leave #Syria, as the D-#ISIS mission is far from over & the practical cost of staying is wholly affordable.

It's still *vital* we stay, but conditions have changed -- a 🧵:

mei.edu/blog/dont-leav…
In 2024, #ISIS has *tripled* its operational tempo in #Syria compared to 2023, while expanding its geographic reach, increasing recruitment & attack scale & sophistication.

Every alarm bell has been ringing for months.

syriaweekly.com/p/nov-2024-isi…
The fall of #Assad has made the U.S operating environment *much* more complicated -- with our #SDF partners facing a potentially existential challenge from #Turkey, the #SNA & the surge in revolutionary sentiment across #Syria.

nytimes.com/2024/12/15/opi…
Since the #HTS-led offensive on #Aleppo began in late-Nov, #Turkey's [separate] SNA coalition launched an offensive on #SDF-linked territory, capturing Tel Rifat.

As they approached #Manbij, the US all but ordered them to give it up in return for a ceasefire.
That ceasefire has been *very* rocky, and it's 2nd iteration showed signs of collapse today, with threats of #SNA assault on #Kobani.

The loss of the symbolic town of #Kobani would be an immense blow to the #PYD-led Kurdish movement in northern #Syria.
For now -- and since #Russia & #Assad forces left the area -- US troops have been patrolling in/around the Kobani countryside, while US diplomacy has sought to deter #Turkey from green-lighting a military offensive. It's proving very challenging.
In recent days, the #SDF has also lost Sunni Arab forces in Deir ez Zour & faced major protests against its rule in #Raqqa & #Hasakeh.

In response, the #SDF has allowed the green revolutionary flag to be flown from public buildings throughout its territory.
If US-#Turkey diplomacy fails & the #SDF faces a concerted offensive, the #SDF's days will be numbered -- & the US will need to consider withdrawing from #Syria.

Today, #Turkey's line is: "you leave, we can take over" the northeast & the counter-#ISIS fight.
Beyond #ISIS's clear resurgence this year, NE #Syria is home to ~9,500 #ISIS militants in prisons & ~42,000 associated women/children in the al-Hol & Roj camps.

= #ISIS's "army in waiting" & potential "next generation," per @CENTCOM's General Kurilla.
@CENTCOM Hope is not all lost -- the US still has room for a major deal with #Turkey, but make no mistake, further big #SDF concessions will be necessary & #Ankara will need big carrots too (F35/16s, #YPG removal from border, #HTS recognition & end of #Syria sanctions).
#Assad's fall also presents the US with opportunities -- namely to seek out new anti-#ISIS partners from within the Sunni Arab communities that have the real capacity to deal #ISIS an irreversible blow in #Syria.

Some prospects worked with the US (CIA) before.
With #Trump signaling his opposition to #Assad's fall & his determination that the US play no role in #Syria, the clock is ticking for the #Biden admin to find a durable solution.

If not, #ISIS stands well-placed to reap rewards.

nytimes.com/2024/12/15/opi…

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
Dec 10
Seeing #Assad's former cabinet meeting with #HTS's Salvation Government in #Damascus is truly a staggering thing.

For many years, Syrians aligned with the state risked being disappeared merely for exchanging messages with opposition-aligned people. A 🧵: Image
In years past, I was involved in a large-scale effort to bring Syrians together from across the crisis spectrum -- for days-long meetings abroad, in neutral venues. Getting people from #Assad-held areas was an enormous logistical & security challenge (for them).
To extend an invite would normally mean first meeting in a neighboring country -- exchanging phone messages or emails whilst in #Syria was a potentially life-threatening thing. Travel would need a cover: a vacation, business meeting, or a family visit.
Read 6 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Dec 9
Over the past week, almost all attention on #Syria has been directed at the #HTS/opposition vs. #Assad dynamic -- and the change of power in #Damascus.

Meanwhile, the #SDF in northeast #Syria has been dealt a tough hand of cards -- a 🧵:
As the anti-#Assad advance gained steam in western #Syria, the Arab tribal component of the #SDF sought to take the fight to #Assad in the east. That happened in Deir ez Zour, but it was hard at times, and complex. It frayed some Arab-YPG ties.
The #SDF also found itself assuming control of resource-intensive areas in #Hasakeh & #Raqqa abandoned by #Assad -- good in theory, but it stretched resources while the #Turkey-backed #SNA launched offensive moves into Tel Rifat & then #Manbij.
Read 5 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Dec 8
#HTS's tip-of-the-spear advance across #Syria has presented international actors with a huge legal/policy dilemma -- a 🧵

After 2 days of #Syria diplomatic talks, it's clear most are considering the likelihood that designations may need re-considering. Image
For several years, the U.S. & Europeans have been aware of #HTS's ideological & behavioral change in #Idlib, and the Salvation Govt too -- but the lack of investment in serious #Syria policy meant there was little need to do more than acknowledge & monitor.
On a simple level: #Jolani has a $10 million reward on his head, but he's spent years operating in the open, with no concern for his safety. US drones continued to operate, meanwhile.

If his designation (& #HTS's) were still rock-solid, he'd be dead by now.
Read 8 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Dec 6
NEW -- since the fall of #Hama yesterday, #Syria is witnessing extraordinary developments.

#Assad's future now looks VERY much in question. A 🧵:
Opposition forces are now at the gates of #Homs, preparing to launch a major push into the city. Elite frontline fighters (incl. from #HTS's Asaib al-Hamra) are prepped on four axes, while #Assad's regime has evacuated its #Homs leadership to #Damascus.
Insurgent factions & former opposition groups in #Daraa have declared their intent to liberate the province from #Assad's regime.

The primary crossing with #Jordan, Nassib, has been captured -- expelling the 4th Division north towards #Damascus.
Read 9 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Dec 5
Having worked on #Syria full-time since the crisis began nearly 14yrs ago, there really is no understating how remarkable the losses imposed on #Assad's regime have been over the past week.

A large reason for this lies with #HTS — a 🧵: Image
Militarily, #HTS has invested enormously since 2020 in enhancing combat capabilities, improving professionalism, tightening its structure & command/control etc.

From an 'officer' class, to special forces, night-time units & an entire drone force - it's changed the game. Image
Image
The expansion of units like Asaib al-Hamra & introduction of Saraya al-Harari and Kataib Shaheen -- along with large-scale indigenous rocket & missile production -- has created a force that #Assad's regime has seriously struggled to defend against, let alone outmaneuver.
Read 18 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
Dec 1
OK -- today is Day 5 of renewed major conflict in #Syria & the frontlines continue to move.

Here's a new 🧵 bringing us up to speed:
#HTS/opposition factions have confirmed full control of all of #Idlib province -- consolidating their capture of Khan Sheikhoun, Saraqeb & Maarat al-Numan and opening the way for large-scale return of IDPs forced out by #Assad's regime in 2020.
From southern #Idlib, #HTS elite units moved south into northern #Hama, joining other forces that reached the north of #Hama city yesterday.

#Assad's regime is now holding firmer frontlines in the provincial capital & in Qomhane, Taybet al-Imam & Maardhes.
Read 12 tweets

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