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JWeiland Profile picture
@JPWeiland
Dec 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Dec 16th update:

Increasing numbers this week as the holiday season kicks in. I believe the prior week was undersampled and this week was oversampled. ED data shows a slower rise over 2 wks (next post)

🔸286,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 112 people currently infected Image
Emergency department data is currently 5 more days up to date than WW, and the trend looks quite different. Slow, steady increases. The reality may lie somewhere between them. I didn't post a WW update last week because I thought the decrease was a mirage. Image
Either way, we are still over 3x lower on case levels than the prior two years at this time. But we are getting back to moderate levels of spread- just not the large surge we are used to at this time.

I have kept my calibration consistent.
It's worth mentioning that the Midwest is at about double the levels of the other regions. AZ and NM are also elevated. Image

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More from @JPWeiland

JWeiland Profile picture
Dec 10
Updated December-Early January Forecast:

Given recent data, the expected peak has decreased even further, and the range has shrunk.

This is now guaranteed to be a record low for Holiday infection rates, hospitalization, and deaths. Image
A comparison of Holiday surge estimates from 2020 to 2024 shows just how unusual this prediction is. Image
I've explained the reasons for this anomaly over the past month. After the appearance of highly divergent Pirola, we had a ton of new escape mutations that led to a summer wave, infecting most of the susceptable populations. Evolution shut off suddenly after, with only...
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Nov 16
Ok, this is actually concerning. The sequence of the hospitalized teen with H5N1 has been released. Both of these mutation sites are known to impact α2,6 binding that is needed for human to human transmissibility.

Need top experts on H5N1 to immediately to look into this.
⚠️The right mutations at these sites can, on paper, significantly increase h-h transmission. That's why there needs to be immediate focus on this sample. It's somewhat unclear if the mutations occurred in this patient or prior to their infection.
It is also concerning that this is the first severe case we've had in North America out of many now. Is it a coincidence that these potentially h-h supporting mutations are linked to the most severe outcome?
Read 5 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Oct 19
FYI:
All of the news stories of the sudden jump in severity of XEC comes from a dentist in the UK (Dr. Snieguole Geige) who most likely does not even know that it's only been 1/6 infections over the past month.

It's nearly impossible to judge any severity change this early. Image
Image
This is not a knock for dentist speaking about covid. This is not my day job either. Sci/docs have made important contributions studying this virus even though it's outside their field. The issue:
🔸️Big claim
🔸️No data in hand
🔸️No evidence this Dr studies covid
Take for example @LongDesertTrain . A high school physics teacher who used his skill sets to become one of the top mutational experts in the world. He has demonstrated for years a high level of expertise and measured analysis on Covid unmc.edu/healthsecurity…
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Sep 30
Outlook for Fall and Winter:

This is not an official forecast, rather a general idea of how I anticipate fall and winter Covid trends to look at the moment, with XEC being the main growing variant.
⚠️A strong new variant would change this relatively positive outlook. Image
The winter wave would be lead by the Northeast followed by the Midwest in terms of prevalence.

Note: I've been sitting on this outlook for 3 weeks, but waited to post it until we could see if XEC had stronger competition. That hasn't happened yet.
If this outlook comes to pass, it would result in the lowest winter surge in infections since 2020 and the lowest winter hospitalizations and deaths since the start of the pandemic. Fingers crossed.
Read 4 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Aug 9
August 9th update:

Estimated daily infections reach 1 million. Remarkable infection rates for a summer surge. Only BA.2->BA.5 was higher in the 2022 summer.

🔸1,000,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 33 people currently infected
🔸74% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Prevalence by region:

Every region increasing in wastewater levels. Both the South and West are at roughly 12 month highs.

Midwest: 1 in 42 ⬆️
South: 1 in 25 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 58 ⬆️
West: 1 in 22 ⬆️ Image
Make no mistake- though waning is a very important driver of waves, variant evolution plays a large role in the differences between years.

Last summer was "just" F456L mutation on XBBs.

This year we had FLiRT->KP.3->KP.3.1.1 back to back, each quickly overtaking the last. Image
Read 5 tweets
JWeiland Profile picture
Jul 19
July 19th update:

Another substantial increase this week (+26%). Wastewater signal now higher than last summer's peak, and over a month earlier.

🔸780,000 new infections/day
🔸1 in every 43 people currently infected
🔸45% higher than 12 month avg. Image
Ratio of people currently infected by region:

Midwest: 1 in 59 ⬆️
South: 1 in 34 ⬆️
Northest: 1 in 73 ⬆️
West: 1 in 25 ⬆️ Image
I expect a peak in the next couple of weeks nationally. Regionally, I think the West at South are closer to peak than the Northeast and Midwest.
Read 4 tweets

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