Thread by @Mylovanov

That’s a great meme - nuclear powers can and do lose wars when faced with determined, asymmetric opponents.

Last year, @TimothyDSnyder made a strong case that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is irrelevant in Ukraine, except as a tool of intimidation. 1/

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1869137168700252402

I often say that Russia threatens to nuke Ukraine, and the West indulges this talk. A flawed idea paralyzes people’s minds - a nuclear power can’t loose a war. But it can and often does 2/

A year ago, Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder put forward some convincing and reassuring arguments why Russia will never use nukes, so we can call relax, arm Ukraine, and let it beat Russia

These arguments are true today 3/

Russia’s nuclear threats have been a recurring tactic. The first trigger, in hindsight, is absurd: on April 24, 2022, Lavrov warned that Blinken’s meeting with Zelenskyy and further support for Ukraine might lead to WWIII with nuclear weapons 4/

The list grows more absurd: threats over “If Kherson is liberated,” “If Crimea is attacked,” and even the liberation of Lyman (do you even remember the name?) 5/

My favorite? Russia’s promise to move nukes to the Baltic if Finland and Sweden joined NATO. They did and nothing happened

6/wapo.st/3jDxG5L

Russia repeatedly warned the West and NATO against arming Ukraine, threatening dire consequences. Nothing ever happened, yet these threats succeeded in delaying vital weapon supplies, all out of unfounded fears of escalation. Meaningful escalation never came 7/

Yet, weapons remained delayed, and Ukrainians paid the price with their lives. So, what does Snyder argue? His key point: Russia’s nuclear threats are not about use - they are a weapon in themselves 8/

Here is a list of Western posts evidencing how effective the Russian nuclear emotional blackmail is 9/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1656736516259958784

Snyder: "By taking nuclear blackmail seriously, we have actually increased the overall chances of nuclear war."10/

"When we understand that nuclear talk is itself the weapon, we can act to make the situation less risky." 11/

"The way forward to strategic thinking is to free ourselves from our own anxieties and consider the Russian ones. The Russians talk about nuclear weapons not because they mean to use them but because ... nuclear talk makes them feel powerful." 12/

And in part it worked. Russia has to change from nuclear rhetoric to Oreshnik Intercontinental Ballistic Missile that is “as big and bad as nukes, but without radiation fallout” says Putin now. It is because everyone got tired of nuclear threats 13/

The same will happen with Oreshnik and other future reincarnations of the same idea. But the sooner we learn to not succumb to fear, the bereft it will be for the world. Russia is naked and hollow and one day it will come down crushing like an old building in Havana 14X