Thread by @criticalthreats

NEW | Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate and withdraw some of its forces from Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. (Image 4: @Maxar) 🧵⬇️

Russian shipments from Syria to Libya are likely setting conditions for Russia to mitigate or replace its reliance on its Syrian bases by upgrading Russian positions in Libya and securing permission for a Russian naval base on Libya’s Mediterranean coast. 2/8

US officials told @WSJ on December 18 that Russian cargo planes have flown radars for S-400 & S-300 interceptor systems & other air defense equipment to Libya.

Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar has asked for air defense systems in negotiations for a Russian naval base in Libya. 3/8

Russian cargo flights from Syria to Libya may be arriving at al Jufra airbase in central Libya.

Satellite imagery showed Russian cargo planes on the runway at al Jufra on December 9, 10, 15, 16, and 17. (Images: @Maxar) 4/8

CTP has been unable to verify reported Russian cargo flights between Syria & Libya or any Russian flights to al Jufra, indicating that their transponders are turned off.

The fact that both sets of flights have their transponders off suggests that they may be the same flights.5/8

Russia is also drawing from pre-existing reserves in Belarus & Russia to reinforce its deployments in Libya & Mali.

The Russian flights to Mali are not consistent with the previous pattern of Africa Corps rotations. 6/8

Flight data from @flightradar24 shows Russian flights traveling to Bamako via Libya, demonstrating that Russia is already using Libya as an alternative to Syria. 7/8

This week's Africa File also discusses Rwanda-DRC peace talks & M23's advances in eastern DRC, Ethiopia's counter-Fano offensive, and IS Sahel Province in Niger:

CTP will post the next Africa File the week of January 9, 2025, after a holiday pause. 8/8criticalthreats.org/analysis/afric…