Thread by @verekerrichard1

1) Russia has lost at least 3,251 Tanks (visually confirmed). This month, the old T-62s make up a record-high proportion of their losses. A 🧵about those losses, with a new and, I think, revealing graph from me.

2) Tanking about records, Russia is losing a record-high number of IFVs for each Tank it is losing. There could be a few reasons for this, including the fact that they don't have that many working tanks anymore. But more about that latter.

3) I'll start by looking at the T-62s as they are now at record high proportion. Most of them are the T-62M (orange) variant first made in 1983. but a growing proportion has had the Orb 2022 modification (grey) in the last 2 years.

4) Next up is the T-72, the most common tank at the start. Well, most of these have now also had their own Orb 2022 (blue) modification, with the Obr 2016 (Yellow) becoming rare. Also, notice that the very old T-72A/Urals (orange) have always been rare and continue to be rare.

5) On to the T-80s, there are a few ways to show this on a graph, but I'm going for this simple version. Like the T-62 and T72, Orb 2022s have become more common, but still less than half. The T-80Us (blue) went from 60% to less than 5% in 10 months, but some still appear.

6 And now, the T-90s. I'm Using a quarterly bar graph, as the numbers are too small to do monthly. Note how the T-90A (blue) went from 100% down to almost nothing. Most have been lost T-90Ms for the last 18 months, with a few T-90S.

My theory is that the T-90As have (almost) disappeared, partly because of losses but mostly because they have been rebuilt into T-90Ms. Russia was making about 60 T-90Ms a year immediately before the war but claimed to have increased that to 200 a year in 2023.

That 200 number might be close to accurate IF you count rebuilds as 'new' Tanks. But the T-90As are (mostly) gone now, and I suspect production rates have/will come down closer to that 60-a-year rate.

7) This is a new graph from me. I have grouped the many different types and variants into 1 of 4 categories. I explain why in a bit. (Newest at the bottom of this graph)

1) New in build: T-90M and T-90A (blue)
2) Modern tanks in stage: T-90A, T-80B/BV/BVM T-80u/UD, T-72B, and B vairiants. (orange)
3) Old but complex tanks in storage, T-72A/AV/Ural, and all T-62s (grey)
4) Old simple tanks from storage, T-62, T-54/55. (yellow)

Notice how small the 'old but complex' portion is. It was slightly higher in the first 4 months of the war but tiny now.

9) The reason I did that graph that way was after looking at the exhalant 'google-doc' made available by @Jonpy99 link below. Which is based on numbers satellite-based counting of the Russian storage bases. It includes a lot of Russian equipment, such as tanks, IFVs, APCs, artillery, and so on. I understand that a lot of the Tank counting was done by @HighMarsed, but what to thank all those involved, @CovertCabal @waffentraeger @Ath3neN0ctu4 @ukrainecontrol @hizzo_jay @AS_22im and any others I have missed.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@Jonpy99 10) The reason I grouped like that was I looked at this section of the Google doc and noticed that there were big differences in the % taken for different types of tanks. But, it seems to be they could be simplified into 3 groups.

@Jonpy99 11) So, I created this 'mini' table for myself from their numbers. The 3 categories are the same as in the graph I did.
Modern: T-90A, T-80s, T-72B.
Old Complex: T-72A/Ural, T-64
Old Simple: T-62, T-54/55

12) Notice the difference;
Over 3/4 of the modern tanks are now gone, and bear in mind that 117 of the T-72B on that are from a photo taken in May 2023 of the 904th base, so more are probably gone by now.

In contrast, it looks like the Old Complex tanks are barely touched. Most of these tanks, T-64s and T-72A/Urals were used by the LPR/DPR, not the main Russian army, at the start. It seems Russia either doesn't want to or can't reactivate these in any significant numbers. As Russia is reactivating older tanks, I don't think it's that they don't want to. I don't know where the 257 they have removed have got to, so few have been lost recently that I don't think many have made it to the front line. It might be that they are backlogged at a reactivation base. But bearing in mind that most/many of the T-64s Russia has lost were once captured from Ukraine. It's possible that those removed have been removed to be 'cannibalised' for spare parts to keep the other going.

The old simple tanks have seen 1001 removed, almost half at this point. So many can keep this part up for another two years, but in the three condition classifications used by the counters, only 111 are counted as decent, the rest split between poor and worse. So, it's possible that the rate of reactivation may slow down.

13) So coming back to this graph, sowing the number of Russian IFVs lost for each tank lost. Does it sound credible that the change might be that Russia now has fewer tanks available to it?

14) And back to this graph from the first tweet:
Has 'production' of the T-90Ms dropped from 200 down to 60 a year, while T-80 and T-72B reactivation is now dwindling, T-72A/Ural and T-64s 'can't happen' at least not at scale, so it's only T-62s and T-55s coming out now.

15) For what it's worth, I think most of the T-54s and 55s are being used for tank crew training in Russia.

Their larger size makes them good training platforms as you can fit an instructor in the tank with students, while their weakness on the battlefield does not matter.

It would also explain why we see so few losses compared to the number removed from storage.

16) I would like to thank all those who do work analysing this stuff and making it available for people like me, in particular @warspotting @WritingFates @Jonpy99 @CovertCabal @HighMarsed all of which are worth following.
The data tables are here:

@WarSpotting @WritingFates @Jonpy99 @CovertCabal @HighMarsed 17) And my biggest thanks have to go to the Ukrainian armed forests and all who help contribute to the destruction of the Russian Army.

If you feel similarly, please join me in donating to @wilendhornets whose drones are so devastating to Russain Tanks or @U24_gov_ua