Thread by @terjehelland

🇬🇪Sanctions are already working.
Bidzina Ivanishvili is petrified, and his panic proves it.
How do we know? By watching how he and Georgian Dream have reacted to the wave of sanctions over the past weeks.
🧵Let’s go through it ...
1/11

🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹When the Baltic states imposed sanctions, Ivanishvili scoffed.
He ridiculed them, dismissing their actions as "only hurting the Baltic people". There was no retaliation, no panic.
Indifference was the message.
2/11

Then came the UK and US Magnitsky sanctions.
The tone shifted instantly. Ivanishvili slammed the panic button .
What is he so afraid of?
Two things:
1️⃣ Appearing weak.
2️⃣ Cracks and defections within his power structure.
3/11

Just hours after the sanctions hit, Ivanishvili scrambled to signal strength:
🔹Vakhtang Gomelauri (sanctioned) promoted to Vice PM.
🔹Medals of honor announced for him and other sanctioned loyalists.
🔹Compensation was promised: “The state will cover their financial losses.”
4/11

😱This isn’t confidence. This is fear.
When you have to reward loyalty with promotions, medals, and money—just to keep your circle intact—it’s not strength.
It’s desperation.
5/11

But here’s the problem for Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream:
They don’t understand how Magnitsky sanctions work.
Magnitsky sanctions aren’t just symbolic. They are isolating, consequential, and contagious.
6/11

Under Magnitsky sanctions, anyone who interacts with sanctioned individuals can be targeted next:
🔹Banks handling their accounts.
🔹Colleagues working with them.
🔹Businesses serving them (even pizza delivery companies, in theory).
No one is safe.
7/11

By doubling down to protect his loyalists, Ivanishvili is dragging everyone with him:
🔹The self-proclaimed government
🔹The election fraudsters of Georgian Dream
🔹The enablers, the corrupt financiers, the propagandists—all of them are now in the crosshairs
8/11

Ivanishvili knows defections are coming and he is freaking out.
No one wants to risk their future over a leader in panic mode.
Sanctions are a wedge. They create pressure. And under pressure, systems like Georgian Dream begin to crack.
9/11

The walls are closing in on Ivanishvili.
His fear is justified.
Sanctions are working, and his actions betray the desperation of a regime in freefall.
The only question is: Who will defect first?
10/11

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