WHY A CEASEFIRE WILL AMOUNT TO CATASTROPHE
"Forgive them because they do not know what they do." We do know!π§΅
"Forgive them because they do not know what they do." We do know!π§΅
(1) Military recovery
In a ceasefire, russia will be able to train and prepare new soldiers (russians and north koreans) for the next assault. They will make sure to be better prepared and make in it three days next time. Everyone turning 18 now will be at the front at 21. 2/
In a ceasefire, russia will be able to train and prepare new soldiers (russians and north koreans) for the next assault. They will make sure to be better prepared and make in it three days next time. Everyone turning 18 now will be at the front at 21. 2/
Meanwhile, Ukraine will have to dismiss soldiers to rebuild the country and for financial reasons. Those who have not registered voluntarily by now will not do so after a ceasefire. 3/
(2) Economic recovery
Sanctions will be lifted in a ceasefire deal. The frozen Z assets will be returned to russia instead of giving them to Ukraine. Gas will flow through NordStream. russia will recover swiftly and use the money to get the best Chinese equipment. 4/
Sanctions will be lifted in a ceasefire deal. The frozen Z assets will be returned to russia instead of giving them to Ukraine. Gas will flow through NordStream. russia will recover swiftly and use the money to get the best Chinese equipment. 4/
Meanwhile, Ukraine will rebuild, as well. But people will want to focus on rebuilding the cities over the military. As its Lithium fields are occupied, its agricultural fields mined and its people in the West, it will need more time to recover. 5/
(3) Hybrid warfare
russia's hybrid warfare will not stop. At the contrary, to prepare for the next assault, bringing in Farage and LePen will remain their goal for Europe. Meanwhile, the US will disappear from the scene anyway and focus on its internal struggles. 6/
russia's hybrid warfare will not stop. At the contrary, to prepare for the next assault, bringing in Farage and LePen will remain their goal for Europe. Meanwhile, the US will disappear from the scene anyway and focus on its internal struggles. 6/
More "Islamist" attacks, more disrupted infrastructure, more money and propaganda for Farage & LePen, will be possible after the military fighting stops. Europe will be cooked like a frog in the years before the next assault. 7/
(4) Maintaining peace
There will be efforts to secure the peace. They will not be enough. Even if there are Western troops on the ground, there are three big risks:
a) Low numbers
b) political unrest and turnover in the West
c) Simultaneous attacks on NATO
8/
There will be efforts to secure the peace. They will not be enough. Even if there are Western troops on the ground, there are three big risks:
a) Low numbers
b) political unrest and turnover in the West
c) Simultaneous attacks on NATO
8/
a) Low numbers
Germany struggles at the moment to send 5000 troops to Lithuania. The European West combined would hardly send over 30000 troops to Ukraine. Facing an assault by, let's say, 300000 russians + north koreans, they might retreat to "avoid escalation". 9/
Germany struggles at the moment to send 5000 troops to Lithuania. The European West combined would hardly send over 30000 troops to Ukraine. Facing an assault by, let's say, 300000 russians + north koreans, they might retreat to "avoid escalation". 9/
b) Unrest in the West
As said before, russia will use the time of a ceasefire to overturn the remaining Western democracies (mostly Europe). A Le Pen or Farage would quickly remove the troops or even get their democratic opponents to do so by inciting discontent. AFGHANISTAN! 10/
As said before, russia will use the time of a ceasefire to overturn the remaining Western democracies (mostly Europe). A Le Pen or Farage would quickly remove the troops or even get their democratic opponents to do so by inciting discontent. AFGHANISTAN! 10/
c) Simultaneous assaults
If russia were to attack Ukraine and Lithuania/Estonia simultaneously, the under-mobilized Europeans would have to choose what they can still defend. Instead of reinforcing troops in Ukraine, they would focus on maintaining EU territory as they can.11/
If russia were to attack Ukraine and Lithuania/Estonia simultaneously, the under-mobilized Europeans would have to choose what they can still defend. Instead of reinforcing troops in Ukraine, they would focus on maintaining EU territory as they can.11/
(5) Ukraine's children
A ceasefire agreement would not even cover the issue of abducted Ukrainian children, leaving this for later peace negotiations. But even if, russia would not care.
These children would grow up as russians and turn up in russian trenches later. 12/
A ceasefire agreement would not even cover the issue of abducted Ukrainian children, leaving this for later peace negotiations. But even if, russia would not care.
These children would grow up as russians and turn up in russian trenches later. 12/
(6) return to "world power status"
russia will celebrate a ceasefire as a victory. Global South countries will forget any remaining reluctance to deal with russia as the West negotiated with it. russia will make sure Syria doesn't repeat, send in troops to Georgia + elsewhere13/
russia will celebrate a ceasefire as a victory. Global South countries will forget any remaining reluctance to deal with russia as the West negotiated with it. russia will make sure Syria doesn't repeat, send in troops to Georgia + elsewhere13/
(7) China
China will see there is an exit strategy after a failed assault. It will help russia to recover while preparing for its assault on Taiwan, with the lessons learned from Ukraine. The next invasion of πΊπ¦ and the invasion of πΉπΌ could happen simultaneously. 14/
China will see there is an exit strategy after a failed assault. It will help russia to recover while preparing for its assault on Taiwan, with the lessons learned from Ukraine. The next invasion of πΊπ¦ and the invasion of πΉπΌ could happen simultaneously. 14/
Summary: A ceasefire now will take away what energy is left to defend Ukraine in Ukraine and the West while emboldening russia and lead to the next more successful assault.
What should be done instead? 15/
What should be done instead? 15/
Instead of a ceasefire, everything must be done to defeat russia now.
As Ukrainians have had so many losses, this means a lot to do.
(1) Western troops now to secure the Dnipro line (Kherson!) and the North. Every Ukrainian fighting there is missed on the Eastern front. 16/
As Ukrainians have had so many losses, this means a lot to do.
(1) Western troops now to secure the Dnipro line (Kherson!) and the North. Every Ukrainian fighting there is missed on the Eastern front. 16/
(2) Air defense and aviation
a) Western air defense in Poland and Romania must shoot down russian missiles and drones.
b) More air defense must be produced and delivered. If there are no more US Patriot missiles, send whatever there is.
17/
a) Western air defense in Poland and Romania must shoot down russian missiles and drones.
b) More air defense must be produced and delivered. If there are no more US Patriot missiles, send whatever there is.
17/
c) More aircraft and pilots
With a significant number of F-16 and (e.g. retired) Western pilots, the assaults on Ukraine's cities could be reduced a lot.
With north korean troops on the ground, there is no escalation by sending in Westerners. 18/
With a significant number of F-16 and (e.g. retired) Western pilots, the assaults on Ukraine's cities could be reduced a lot.
With north korean troops on the ground, there is no escalation by sending in Westerners. 18/
(3) Support of homegrown production
This is already happening. The less Ukraine depends on politically unsecure deliveries, the better. The West must secure the financing and provide know-how. 19/
This is already happening. The less Ukraine depends on politically unsecure deliveries, the better. The West must secure the financing and provide know-how. 19/
(4) Transfer of frozen assets
Frozen russian assets must be transferred to Ukraine asap, before OrcBan or anyone manages to unfreeze them for russia!!!!!!!!!! This will make russia pay instead of the West paying for russia's aggression with money and Ukraine with its blood. 20/
Frozen russian assets must be transferred to Ukraine asap, before OrcBan or anyone manages to unfreeze them for russia!!!!!!!!!! This will make russia pay instead of the West paying for russia's aggression with money and Ukraine with its blood. 20/
(5) SANCTIONS, SANCTIONS, SANCTIONS
Even the most anti weapons guy in the world cannot contradict sanctions to stop the war machine and to stand by our own values. Increasing sanctions make a difference and can bring russia down, either by a collapse or internal unrest. 21/
Even the most anti weapons guy in the world cannot contradict sanctions to stop the war machine and to stand by our own values. Increasing sanctions make a difference and can bring russia down, either by a collapse or internal unrest. 21/
There, I said it. A ceasefire now will cost the blood of Ukrainians, but also later of my children and grandchildren. Europe might die from it. There is no excuse as "we did not know the outcome".
Meanwhile, to bring victory is still viable. Everything must be done for it. π§΅
Meanwhile, to bring victory is still viable. Everything must be done for it. π§΅
@bctallis @GLandsbergis @kajakallas @RikeFranke @CarloMasala1 @_FriedrichMerz @SecGenNATO @EmmanuelMacron @donaldtusk @Keir_Starmer
#NAFO we must stand up against ceasefire talks as we have done against propaganda.
#NAFO we must stand up against ceasefire talks as we have done against propaganda.
@threadreaderapp #unroll
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
γ
