Part II of my essay about the the rule of law is out. While Part I treated the concept of the rule of law, Part II treats the rise of the rule of law internationally after 1945: The rules-based order.

WHY DOES IT MATTER? 🧵 While on a state level the idea of a rule of law against the establishment of despotism has arisen 2500 years ago, the bullying of others by "great powers" on the international sphere used to be seen as normal or at least remained unanswered until 1945. 2/

Giles Fletcher: Of the Russe Commonwealth, 1591

"poor people that are now oppressed with intolerable servitude" (ch. 5)

"The (...) form of their government is plain tyrannical, as applying to the behoof of the prince, and that after a most open and barbarous manner" (ch .7)
1/
"unmeasured liberty to command and exact upon the commons"

"both nobility and commons are but storers for the prince, all running in the end into the emperor's coffers"

"any law (...) is ever determined of before any public assembly or parliament be summoned"
(ch. 7)

So, I need to talk about this. Why asking a German President for reparations is utter nonsense. And why they are generally utter nonsense and would even damage Poland itself.

🧵

https://twitter.com/jcbehrends/status/1968414690653937716

(1) A German President is a procedural figure without any entitlement to make any fundamental decisions. Negotiating with a German President is like negotiating with an English King. Absolute misunderstanding of the constitution.
2/x

The ECHR judgment of July 9, 2025
Ukraine and the Netherlands vs russia

First ever international judicial sentence on the mass abduction of children
🧵 As mentioned before, the European Court of Human Rights has been established by the Council of Europe, a "European UN" which has been joined by all European states except Belarus and the Vatican. russia has no veto, but has been expelled with effect since Sep 16, 2022.

2/

In today's Z omelet, I will talk about German MP @Ralf_Stegner and a recent major scandal which still remains widely unnoticed by the German public: #Bakugate or the secret meetings between a German MP and Z officials. I ask European #NAFO to spread the word across Europe.🧵 Ralf Stegner is a SPD MP with a remarkable career. Until 2021 or the age of 61, he was only active on the level of a small German state (< 3 million people). When the former SPD MP of his electoral district Pinneberg resigned at age 68 in 2021, Stegner replaced him at over 60. 2/

Wir brauchen uns nicht über MAGA aufzuregen, denn eigentlich knüpfen die USA da an, wo Deutschland (hoffentlich) aufgehört hat. Man denke an einen deutschen Außenminister, der eine NATO-Übung als "Säbelrasseln"
bezeichnete und jetzt Bundespräsident ist. Und an Nord Stream... 1/ Korruption in der Medienlandschaft. Einer der Autoren arbeitet bei @DIEZEIT. Der Verlag erhielt Gelder aus der Gasbranche (S. 91), veröffentlicht Kommentare von Schröders Freunden (260f), hat dem Autoren einen Maulkorb auferlegt (377), aber alle Andromeda-Theorien verbreitet. 2/

Weil selbst NAFO-accounts darüber zu diskutieren anfangen, muss ich mich zur Migration äußern. Ich habe mich nämlich mal ernsthaft damit beschäftigt.
Manche scheinen zu meinen, man müsste nur einen Knopf drücken, und dann wäre irgendwie "alles gut". Dabei ist es hochkomplex.
🧵 Erstmal muss man verschiedene Themen auseinanderhalten:
1. Binnenmigration innerhalb der EU
2. Reguläre Migration
3. Fluchtbewegungen und "irreguläre Migration"
4. Integration hier lebender Migranten und Migrantenkinder

2/

According to recent polls, more than a third of Germans might vote for pro russia parties.

How? Those 25 % voting for AfD and BSW must know what they are doing. They are like MAGA.

But on top, 9 % are keen to vote for "The Left", the rebranded East German state's party SED! 1/ These 9 % mostly do not know what they are doing: Mostly very young voters who saw The Left TikTok videos and discovered this party as "new". The Left still has 6 billion Marks of funds that were stolen from the East German state when it collapsed. 2/

The story of a family of Kherson of how they made it through occupation. I know them personally (see below).
🧵

https://twitter.com/fellas4europe/status/1891398598257992166

Their son Maxim, then 8 years old, one day in March 2022 saw many "Asian looking people in uniforms" (Buryats) in the streets. Via hidden ways, he made it home. He stayed in hiding until November 11, 2022, liberation day. 2/

Why does Trump target Denmark?

SPOILER: It has nothing to do with Greenland. 🧵 There is a US base on Greenland, Denmark is a NATO country, granting Greenland independence has been discussed for decades.
Whatever it is the US want to get in Greenland, they would not need military threats to get it.

It's not about Greenland, but about Denmark and Europe. 2/

Listened yesterday to a conversation of @_europecalling about the dangers of social media for democracy and how to deal with it. I could only attend partly, but already got many interesting insights. 🧵 Generally speaking, it was a bad idea to make the Commission responsible for the enforcement of the EU's Digital Services Act. Thus, the enforcement of measures against X will be blocked by political considerations (maintaining a good relationship with the US). 2/

"Dieser Friede", 1938

Beim Kistenpacken ist mir diese Rede Thomas Manns wieder in die Hände gekommen. Er verurteilt darin den Westen (🇬🇧, 🇫🇷 ) für sein Appeasement gegen Hitler und den Verrat an der Tschechoslowakei.

Die Rede passt auf das Streben nach einem Deal mit Putin. 🧵
"Das Geschehen [Münchner Abkommen], wie es als Verrat und Untat aus entsittlichter und lügenhaft-überflüssiger Friedensliebe sich darstellte"

"jene Gesinnung, die es (...) besser und menschlicher (...) meinte, ist ebenso verraten, verkauft (...) wie das tapfere kleine Land" 2/

WHY A CEASEFIRE WILL AMOUNT TO CATASTROPHE

"Forgive them because they do not know what they do." We do know!🧵 (1) Military recovery

In a ceasefire, russia will be able to train and prepare new soldiers (russians and north koreans) for the next assault. They will make sure to be better prepared and make in it three days next time. Everyone turning 18 now will be at the front at 21. 2/

The new administration - how to lull people while establishing control

When Hitler came to power, he was in a coalition. The Nazis conceded almost all ministries to "normal" (also hard right, but low Nazi) allied parties - except the ministry of interior ("Homeland security").1 Yet, within months Hitler managed to gain absolute control over Germany. It didn't matter that so many ministries were taken by relatively normal people as long as he was in control of the force, within and outside official police. 2/

A colleague of mine (whom
I haven't seen in 10 years):

"🇺🇦 will lose anyway"
(what has happened so far?)

"German infrastructure is worsening bc of Ukraine funding" (how was infrastructure before 2022? 0,1 % of GDP is spent on 🇺🇦)
1/ "🇺🇦 is not the perfect democracy you are painting" (I know, but what is happening in the occupied land? please compare)

"Look at Gaza"
(is this Ukraine's fault?)

"NATO enlargement" (why don't they attack Finland then, but choose the grey zone?)
2/

Europe's failures

"Europe has no moral center to oppose genocide", said Biden in 1995.

Concerning European national states, this remains true.

A 🧵 on our failures.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1848812999777091892

While many focus on the US denying Ukraine the ability to strike back, we should call on our European leaders for their lack of willingness and enforcement in the economic war against russia. 2/

👇Exports to Kyrgyzstan to circumvent sanctions on russia, by @robin_j_brooks

Meanwhile in Mexico. Spoiler: It is going full banana republic with a touch of a satellite state. 🧵 2/ In 2000, the first ever democratic Presidential elections were held in Mexico after more than 70 years "revolutionary" party's dictatorship.

The opposition candidate, Vicente Fox, won. This was one of the victories of the liberal order back then. 2/

"Why isn't Ukraine winning, despite Western support?"

An answer to people outside #NAFO in simple words. 🧵 "When you build a house, you would usually first make a draft with an architect. Then you would hire the right people in the right order and buy the material they need in time. 2/

FÜR ALLE FANS DER ERBSCHAFTSTEUER IN IHRER JETZIGEN FORM

"Erbschaftsteuer zahlen eh nur die Reichen."
"Erbschaftsteuer ist doch kein Problem, das kann man bankfinanzieren."
"Erbschaftsteuer ist sozial." Und was man hier sonst so liest...
Ein Rant aus dem realen Leben.🧵 Das jetzige Erbschaftsteuersystem ist so aufgebaut, dass es zwar viele Befreiungen (Freibeträge für Kinder und Ehegatten, Befreiungen für Betriebsvermögen etc.) gibt - aber wenn es einen trifft, landet man schnell bei zweistelligen Prozentsätzen und sechsstelligen Beträgen. 2/

I am going to report a German professor to the police for doxxing a Fella.

#NAFO quite a big thing is happening in Germany, a fight between NAFO and Z-niks which involves, as of now, various pro Ukrainian MPs on our side plus a hard right pro Z pro China MEP on the other. 1/ Act 1
@lena4berger is a fierce critic of pro Z academics in Germany. Her criticism includes a Mr. Augstein, very influential publisher, son of the founder of a leftist magazine @derspiegel which is "neutral" on ruzzia and recently pushed an ultra leftist pro Z politician. 1/

Continuity and long term shift in politics

We should not associate politicians with happened during their government, but with what happened afterwords and for which they had laid the ground. 1/

The clearest example is the enlargement and intensification of EU for which politicians like Germany's chancellor Kohl (1982-1998) and France's François Mitterand (1981-1995) had fought. They did not see the Euro (1999) and the EU enlargement (2004) in office any more. 2/