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Sari Arho Havrén

@SariArhoHavren

Sep 7

Just learned yesterday by coincidence - as it has not been reported in Finland by these public organisations involved- that in May - after about two months of presidency- the Finnish president Alexander Stubb met with Shi Taifang, the vice chairman of the national committee of the CPPCC, and head of the United Front Work Department of the CPC Central Committee. 1/

en.cppcc.gov.cn/2024-05/25/c_9…

Apparently, Shi Taifang led a CPC delegation to Finland at the invitation of the Finnish parliament, and met with Deputy Speaker of the Finnish Parliament Tarja Filatov.

Following the tradition of democratic transparency, it would be beneficial to proactively & publicly report such meetings and not leave it to the Chinese readouts, as it now begs to question of whether the Finnish president truly said all this ⤵️ 2/

According to the CPPCC source, the Finnish president Stubb said that “Finland firmly adheres to the one-China policy. He congratulated China on its remarkable development achievements, and spoke highly of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative and the three global initiatives (the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative), as well as China's contributions to promoting global peace, stability and prosperity. He said that Finland regards China as a land of development opportunity and opposes economic
decoupling and the disruption of industrial and supply chains to China. He also expressed willingness to deepen exchanges with China at all levels and mutually-beneficial cooperation, strengthen communication and dialogue on international and regional issues, and push for the continuous development of the Finland-China and Europe-China relations.”

Does Finland, among other things ⬆️, really endorse the three global initiatives aka the pillars of China led global governance / global order? 3/

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Sari Arho Havrén

@SariArhoHavren

May 11

While the premise of this FT piece is absolutely correct — learn to understand what your opponent wants, and understand what you want — it fails to grasp other than China’s short-term achievables:

“Beijing wants a multipolar world order, which requires preventing Europe from aligning too closely with a US agenda of technological containment and “friendshoring” of supply chains. This is coupled with a domestic growth agenda premised on exporting large amounts of green tech — which requires keeping rich-country markets open.” 1/4

A missed opportunity for a China-EU grand bargain on.ft.com/4baJvK0

These are Beijing’s short-term goals. Longer term and deeper goals are more profound. It's not just the US being the adversary for Beijing, but NATO as well. What happens in Europe is mirrored in the Indo-Pacific. Therefore the endgame in Ukraine is not a bargaining chip to Xi, who wants to shape European security architecture. Confiscating Russian state assets is a horror scenario for China. 2/4

Secondly, Xi wants to establish a Communist Party-friendly global governance that secures its internal and international power - not multipolarity in the longer run - which contradicts European values. Hungary and Serbia alarmingly already subscribed to Beijing's offering. 3/4

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Sari Arho Havrén

@SariArhoHavren

Apr 4

Not a rosy path ahead for China according to this Economist piece; Xi Jinping’s misguided plan to escape economic stagnation: “Blending techno-utopianism, central planning and an obsession with security, this sets out China’s ambition to dominate the industries of tomorrow. But its contradictions mean it will disappoint China’s people and anger the rest of the world.” 1/

economist.com/leaders/2024/0…

“Mr Xi wants state power to accelerate advanced manufacturing industries, which will in turn create high-productivity jobs, make China self-sufficient and secure it against American aggression...Mr Xi’s ultimate aim is to invert the balance of power in the global economy. Not only will China escape dependence on Western technology, but it will control much of the key intellectual property in new industries and charge rents accordingly.” 2/

“Mr Xi’s plan is fundamentally misguided. One flaw is that it neglects consumers.
…
Another flaw is that weak domestic demand means some new production will have to be exported. The world has, regrettably, moved on from the free-trading 2000s—partly because of China’s own mercantilism…China accounts for 31% of global manufacturing. In a protectionist age, how much higher can that figure go?” 3/

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Sari Arho Havrén

@SariArhoHavren

Feb 19

China offers to back Hungary in security matters - unusual move indeed. And by this, Hungary turns into an increasingly unreliable member of NATO and the EU. 1/ reuters.com/world/unusual-…

When Xi Jinping congratulated Finland’s president elect Alexander Stubb, it was done in the context of “new type of international relations”. Same phrase was used by Chinese State Councilor, Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong in Budapest: “mutually beneficial cooperation sets an example of building a new type of international relations.” According to Xinhua, Hungary and the PRC signed documents on security cooperation. 2/

What does China’s proposal for Global Governance says about security issues and why it matters when a NATO member signs a security document with China? China’s proposal advocates ‘security’ in both traditional and non-traditional domains, where countries should accommodate each other’s security concerns (eg Russia’s invisible ones). The root cause for ‘Ukrainian crisis’ lies in the ‘problem’ of security governance of Europe (NATO!). 3/

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Sari Arho Havrén

@SariArhoHavren

Feb 10

“Xi Jinping…has instructed the Communist Party to recruit ethnic-Chinese nationals of other countries in a quest to build international support and stymie political enemies. In 2018 responsibility for relations with the Chinese diaspora was handed to the same united front department that oversees the CPPCC. In South-East Asia above all, Chinese embassies and state-security organs reach out to ethnic-Chinese businessmen, clan associations and grassroots organisations. Mr Xi’s approach confers primacy to blood rather than to citizenship: no matter how long ago their forebears left China, ethnic Chinese are considered to have a duty to their ancestral land.” 1/4

economist.com/asia/2024/02/0…

“This month a sweeping new law against foreign interference was invoked for the first time [in Singapore], against a Hong Kong-born Singaporean, Philip Chan.”

“Mr Chan is…a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an organ of the Chinese Communist Party. He appears to have crossed a line by trumpeting China’s interests. Last year, in Beijing, he declared that the Chinese diaspora was duty-bound to “tell China’s story well”. He added that “if you want to have a future, you must stand with the country that represents the future.” 2/4

Singapore’s recent actions are illustrative in multiple ways. As the Economist points out “More influential Singaporean businessfolk than Mr Chan are members of the CPPCC.” In this light, as Singapore itself is quite concerned about covert influence operations, and instead of prejudice over ethnicity, senator Cotton could have used a more useful line of questioning TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew. As Mr Chan’s case shows, being Singaporean as Mr Shou simplistically stated, doesn't necessarily exclude connections with the CCP as doesn't any other citizenship. However, neither does it equal connections. 3/4

nbcnews.com/news/asian-ame…

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Sari Arho Havrén

@SariArhoHavren

Nov 5, 2023

Xi repeated pretty much his doctrine’s core points in the meeting with Scholz, but the tone was more like a teacher warning - if not almost reprimanding- a student. Xi was talking assertively and was demonstrating a position of strength. 1/ english.news.cn/20221105/bdffa…

Xi stressed that “political trust is easy to destroy but difficult to rebuild and that it should be nurtured and protected by both sides.”

Xi wasn’t talking about China here, but teaching Germany. 2/

This quote from Xi was interesting: “There should be no self-imposed restrictions or unrealistic expectations”. 3/

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