In the past 48 hours, reports have emerged of a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions near the village of Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region. The attack utilised dozens of uncrewed ground combat vehicles (UGV). 1/5 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The UGVs were apparently supported throughout the activity by FPV drones. While this doesn’t make the attack fully autonomous – the vehicles need human operators – it is one of the more significant examples of drone combat in this war.
3/ The Battle of Lyptsi is an important step in the transformation of the character of war from a purely human endeavour to something quite different in the 21st century. But none of the battlefield functions envisioned for uncrewed systems will be effective without the transformation of military institutions that wish to use them. This includes armies but also the civilian bureaucracies that support them.
4/ These changes are required now, not in some future budgetary environment. Current capabilities will probably need to be cut away to allow for much larger investment in human-machine teaming. The key areas where transformation will be needed are in training, education, leadership development, tactics, organisational structures, and procurement.
5/ The battle is part of the leading edge of a much larger wave of military transformation that is about to wash over land forces around the world. My assessment of the meaning of Lyptsi and the trajectory of uncrewed land combat is now available. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-o…
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America has just released its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS). Not seeing much press activity from the Dept of Defense/War on this. While I need time to ponder the deeper implications of the document, a few things stand out on first reading. 1/11 🧵
2/ First, the document is consistent with the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) released by the Trump Administration in November 2025. Key priorities in the NDS align with the NSS, as you would expect. However, while the NSS has priorities, the NDS has "Lines of Effort". whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…
3/ There are four Lines of Effort in the new NDS:
1. Defend the U.S. Homeland. 2. Deter China in the Indo-Pacific Through Strength, Not Confrontation. 3. Increase Burden-Sharing with U.S. Allies and Partners. 4. Supercharge the U.S. Defense Industrial Base.
"The Oreshnik is the sign of a Fearful, Worried Putin, Not a Leader Confident of Victory." My first 2026 update on war and great power competition. This week: the Oreshnik attack, peace talks progress, the ground war in #Ukraine, China's reaction to Venezuela and more. 1/5 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ In events related to #Ukraine this week, the Oreshnik strike absorbed a lot of attention. But this was not an event that demonstrates Russia's strength. Indeed it showed the opposite. Also, peace talks in Paris took place as did a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing.
3/ In the Pacific, China continues to posture about American operations in Venezuela. While we might like to think that China will practice what it preaches with regards to its statement that “military means are not the solution to problems”, its accelerating use of military coercion and aggression against neighbours shows just how hollow and hypocritical the Xi regime is.
Also this week, Trump discussed Taiwan in his New York Times interview.
On 29 December, just as the summit between Zelenskyy and Trump was finishing at Mar-a-lago, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command announced that it had commenced exercise "Justice Mission 2025" in the #Taiwan Strait. I have just published an assessment of what China designed it to achieve, and how we can learn from it. 1/8 🧵🇹🇼
2/ Exercise Justice Mission 2025 has taken place at multiple locations around Taiwan. While the maps demonstrate the physical environment of the exercise, the more important exercise “location” is the minds of Taiwanese and foreign observers. But perhaps the most important exercise location is the mind of the U.S. president. (Map: @TaiwanMonitor)
3/ The exercise will have been designed by the Chinese with multiple objectives beyond the normal political coercion of Taiwan. These objectives include:
-rehearsing military activities for different Taiwan contingencies, including decapitation operations.
-continue developing the skills of the commanders, staff, units and overall command and control of the Eastern Theatre Command.
-assess the response of Taiwanese and American political and military systems.
-normalise large joint operations around Taiwan.
Putin can play Trump like a fiddle. But the bigger issue is that Putin has clearly decided that continuing the war in #Ukraine - while keeping Trump on side - is more advantageous to him (for now) than agreeing to any peace deal. This is a deliberate Russian provocation to get Ukraine-haters worked up and undermine the peace process. 1/6 🧵
2/ Putin has wasted no time in making his views on the current 20-point plan clear. He does not like it, but needs to keep Trump from placing more sanctions on Russia. If the current peace plan isn’t dead, it may be on life support. Will Trump hold Putin to account for this however?
3/ And today, Putin held a carefully scripted ‘military update’ with senior military commanders to further shape the minds of decision makers Washington DC, Beijing and elsewhere around Russia’s inevitable victory. The key theme - everything is going well, the enemy (Ukraine) is doing badly and we must continue fighting to ‘liberate the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia.
The much-anticipated summit between the leaders of #Ukraine and America, held at President Trump’s #Mar-a-Largo resort, has just concluded with a press conference. A quick update on outcomes. 1/15 🧵🇺🇦
2/ This is the latest meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy since Trump returned to the White House in early 2025. Some of the meetings did not go well, such as the now-infamous 28 February Oval Office meeting. Others just kicked the can down the road, such as the Alaska Summit.
3/ In the lead up to the meeting, Ukraine released details of a 20-point peace plan that would be discussed with the Trump administration, and then potential presented to the Russians. The draft plan covered multiple subjects, including security guarantees for Ukraine, Ukrainian membership of the EU, reconstruction and territory.
Also, Trump had a 2.5 hour phone conversation with Putin - a call that was as long as today's main meeting between Ukraine and the US.
I recently returned from another research visit to #Ukraine, my second for 2025. I have written a new white paper, published by the @CSIS, which explores 7 strategic insights based on knowledge gained on my recent visit & other research. 1/7 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The white paper covers a range of subjects related to how #Ukraine and #Russia are fighting this war. The seven insights not only illuminate the state of the war, and the degree of learning and #adaptation occurring, they provide lessons that western military institutions must analyse and heed.
3/ The seven subjects covered are:
1. Drone saturation and Russian drone innovation. 2. The new tactical battle triangle. 3. The ongoing and accelerating adaptation battle. 4. Long-range strike operations. 5. Ground-based air defence. 6. Russia's tactical and strategic advantages. 7. War strategy and trajectory.