In the past 48 hours, reports have emerged of a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions near the village of Lyptsi in the Kharkiv region. The attack utilised dozens of uncrewed ground combat vehicles (UGV). 1/5 🧵🇺🇦
2/ The UGVs were apparently supported throughout the activity by FPV drones. While this doesn’t make the attack fully autonomous – the vehicles need human operators – it is one of the more significant examples of drone combat in this war.
3/ The Battle of Lyptsi is an important step in the transformation of the character of war from a purely human endeavour to something quite different in the 21st century. But none of the battlefield functions envisioned for uncrewed systems will be effective without the transformation of military institutions that wish to use them. This includes armies but also the civilian bureaucracies that support them.
4/ These changes are required now, not in some future budgetary environment. Current capabilities will probably need to be cut away to allow for much larger investment in human-machine teaming. The key areas where transformation will be needed are in training, education, leadership development, tactics, organisational structures, and procurement.
5/ The battle is part of the leading edge of a much larger wave of military transformation that is about to wash over land forces around the world. My assessment of the meaning of Lyptsi and the trajectory of uncrewed land combat is now available. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-o…
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The spectacular Ukrainian attack on multiple airbases today highlights the progress that #Ukraine has made building an effective long-range strike capability since 2022. There are many lessons that western military organisations might take from this. But there are also some insights on this war, and the future of war, as well. 1/5 🇺🇦 🧵
2/ The attacks, part of a longer campaign to place cumulative pressure on Russia’s economy, political leaders and war-making capacity, will probably not be a decisive turning point in the war. They will however have a military impact.
3/ Military impacts include a reduction in Russian missile carrying / launching aircraft, a reassessment of the locations of these aircraft, possible changes in the air and drone defences at Russian bases, as well as a nice morale bump for the Ukrainians.
In the coming months, Russia will execute a series of campaigns in #Ukraine to exploit western political discord and achieve a decisive outcome before the end of 2025. What might this look like and what are Putin's goals? 1/5 (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ What is Putin trying to do? Putin has, so far, successfully strung the American president along without any negative impacts. He will try to continue this while watching with glee the corrosive relationship between Trump and Zelenskyy.
3/ Putin will have a series of objectives to achieve by the end of this year including:
I have just published my weekly update on war and global conflict. This week, a focus on Russia unleashing larger aerial assaults on Ukraine's cities and the prospects for a stepped-up Russian offensive in Kharkiv. 1/5 (Image: @maria_avdv)
2/ This weekend, we see Putin conform to his worst instincts & unleash large-scale missile & drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Dozens of Ukrainians have been killed or wounded. His massive attacks on Ukraine over the weekend are indicative of Putin’s mindset now: “Trump has walked away so anything goes.”
3/ Putin hardly possesses a strong set of cards however. Even if he was to agree to some form of ceasefire now, Putin has very little to show from his three-plus years of war. This is why the ground offensive, which will increase in tempo, is so important to Putin. He really needs a decisive outcome from the 2025 offensive.
The U.S. President, Donald Trump, had another conversation with Russia’s president today. The two-hour conversation focused primarily on Ukraine peace negotiations but also covered other topics related to the America-Russia relationship. 1/5
2/ The discussion between Trump and Putin indicates that we are at the start of a new phase in the Ukraine War, and in negotiations over war termination. America has cast off any pretentions of being a central player in peace negotiations moving forward. In essence, Trump has done what many feared in the lead up to the November 2024 presidential elections. He has thrown Ukraine under the bus in the hope that he can make money in Russia.
3/ Putin has been encouraged and enabled to continue his brutal war against Ukraine by Trump stepping back from any important role in influencing Russia’s aggressive behaviour or negotiating peace. The people of Ukraine will suffer most because of this.
Western governments and military institutions face an array of contemporary warfighting challenges which require rapid solutions. It comprises an intellectual deficit in our military institutions. What are they, and how might they be addressed? 1/7 (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ The ground war remains largely static. Where advances have been made, they are achieved at very large costs. The drone & missile war has more dynamism. However, it is still yet to prove politically or strategically decisive.
3/ Western military institutions face 5 significant warfighting challenges which require solutions. There is a significant body of evidence for these from Ukraine, and to a lesser degree, from conflicts in the Middle East & South Asia, as well as from Chinese activities in the Pacific.
I have just published my latest weekly update on the war in #Ukraine, and the competition/confrontation with China in the Pacific. This week: Xi and Putin's are 'Friends of Steel', the back and forth of Ukraine peace negotiations, Russia's declining returns on its massive casualties. 1/6 🧵🇺🇦 (Image: @DefenceU)
2/ Peace negotiations continue, without much progress. European leaders visited Ukraine this week and endorsed along with @ZelenskyyUa a 30 day ceasefire in the war. Trump has also called for a 30 day ceasefire.
3/ Putin on the other hand has proposed direct Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul in the coming week. Putin did not offer to extend his three-day truce (the parade is over and Xi is heading home).