With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk.
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick thread on the situation in South Donetsk. 1/
1/
In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat.
A quick thread on the situation in South Donetsk. 1/
1/
General situation:
Although the Russian pace of advance slowed in December they've continued their advance in southern Donetsk.
Pictured in darker red is the situation at the beginning of December, light red is Russian advances.
2/
Although the Russian pace of advance slowed in December they've continued their advance in southern Donetsk.
Pictured in darker red is the situation at the beginning of December, light red is Russian advances.
2/
The most difficult situation has emerged around the Kurakhove salient where the Russians are advancing both on the northern and southern flanks.
The Ukrainian situation here is especially dangerous because of the limited logistical routes.
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The Ukrainian situation here is especially dangerous because of the limited logistical routes.
3/
This salient is boxed in by the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly rivers with only one major route and one bridge leading to Kurakhove.
Russians are closing in on this road both from the north and the south near Ulakly and Dachne respectively.
4/
Russians are closing in on this road both from the north and the south near Ulakly and Dachne respectively.
4/
Ukrainian channels are already talking about Russian drone strikes and the ever-elusive "fire control" over the main road.
Whatever the case, The Ukrainian forces in the Kurakhove salient are now in clear danger of encirclement.
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Whatever the case, The Ukrainian forces in the Kurakhove salient are now in clear danger of encirclement.
5/
To the southwest of Kurakhove, another pocket is forming around Velyka Novosilka.
Here the Russians have advanced to the west of the Mokri Yaly River, and east of the town, closing in on its supply routes.
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Here the Russians have advanced to the west of the Mokri Yaly River, and east of the town, closing in on its supply routes.
6/
The Russians cut the northern supply road at the village of Novyi Komar and are closing in on the last remaining road into the city west of Vremivka.
They have also recently struck the bridges over the Mokri Yaly River. 7/
They have also recently struck the bridges over the Mokri Yaly River. 7/
This effectively cuts the town of Velyka Novosilka off from the villages of Vremivka and Neskuchne, and the rest of the Ukrainian-controlled territories.
The town will need to be supplied by makeshift means over the river. 8/
The town will need to be supplied by makeshift means over the river. 8/
In conclusion: The threat to the main logistical routes in both Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka is going to be a challenge to Ukrainians.
Light troops can be supplied by drones, and infantry can withdraw over the fields, although it's dangerous. 9/
Light troops can be supplied by drones, and infantry can withdraw over the fields, although it's dangerous. 9/
However, should Russia advance enough to force a withdrawal from these salients, the prevailing December weather and Russian drone-observation makes the evacuation of remaining heavy equipment over wet fields a daunting task
10/
10/
Ukraine once again finds itself in the threat of encirclement in salients that have been emerging for weeks.
In the past Ukraine has been lucky; catastrophes have been averted. But one should not continuously rely on luck.
11/
In the past Ukraine has been lucky; catastrophes have been averted. But one should not continuously rely on luck.
11/
Despite posting less, we here at
@Black_BirdGroup continue to monitor the Russian invasion of Ukraine daily. We also want to thank @wihurinrahasto for their generous grant that lets us keep the lights on in this project of ours.
12/12
@Black_BirdGroup continue to monitor the Russian invasion of Ukraine daily. We also want to thank @wihurinrahasto for their generous grant that lets us keep the lights on in this project of ours.
12/12
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