Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
Dec 23 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky administration, writes for WSJ how Ukraine helped depose Assad and advance the U.S. interests globally.

1/ Image
His point is indirect. Syria's fall demonstrates that weakening Russia in Ukraine can trigger collapse of Putin's influence in other regions, strengthening U.S. global security and power. 2/
Ukraine's resistance and US support weakened Russia's ability to aid Assad in Syria.
Russia lost estimated 700,000 soldiers, 9,162 tanks, etc They are so stretched so they have no resources to operate elsewhere. 3/
Russia's military bases in Syria (Tartus and Khmeimim) are crucial for projecting power beyond borders and countering NATO.
Putin spent billions propping up Assad regime. Now, his standing there is so much weaker. 4/
Assad's fall undermines Putin's credibility with other allied despots. Russia and Iran lose strategic position to threaten US interests in region. 5/
Yermak argues for increased US investment in Ukraine's strategic industries to secure long-term peace and mutual benefits. 6/
There are also implications for Africa.
Russia's weakened position in Syria affected its influence in Africa, particularly after US withdrawal from Niger allowed Russian forces to move into region.
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More from @Mylovanov

Dec 25
Some in Washington argue that Ukraine holds no strategic value for the US and should be abandoned - a sentiment I’ve heard directly from certain, not all, voices in the Trump camp. Their point - a Ukraine fall doesn't threaten Ohio

Here are the reasons why they are wrong 1/
Here is the gist of the argument: Ukraine serves as a buffer against Russian aggression, has strategic military and geographical significance, and the fall of Ukraine would have direct and broad implications for global security, food stability, and U.S. policy leverage 2/
But, first, people in Washington may want to avoid a mistake of assuming that they can determine the outcome of the war. In wars, realities on the ground matter more than policy decisions in foreign capitals, though support does matter as Afghanistan recently showed 3/
Read 14 tweets
Dec 23
Trump’s most recent comments on Ukraine criticize Kyiv and NATO, hinting at less U.S. support. He’s pushing to meet Putin, calling the war "horrible." I spoke with CNN's @jimsciutto about what Ukraine thinks about Trump's views and what it must do 1/
Trump said yesterday he’s eager to meet Putin, claiming the Russian leader wants talks "as soon as possible" to end what he calls a "horrible" war in Ukraine. While this is a push for diplomacy, it raises questions about concessions Trump might make to get Putin to the table 2/
Jim: How do you read Trump's comments on ending the war?

Me: Trump was sympathetic to Ukraine in Paris and called Putin loser before. But Kyiv feels uncertainty and worry. We want the war to stop, but no one expects a quick resolution or clear U.S. strategy yet 3/
Read 7 tweets
Dec 22
The Economist highlights that Ukraine’s economy has outperformed Russia’s during the war - despite Moscow’s attempts to spin the narrative. Grateful to contribute through the Economist to countering Russian propaganda with facts and informed perspectives.

Other points which Economist convey: 1/Image
Even being smaller than in 2021, Ukraine economy is outperforming Russia with stable currency, low interest rates, and GDP growth of 4% in 2024. 2/
Businesses have adapted to the war, moved operations west, set up abroad, and shift to new industries, like green energy and AI. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Dec 21
The Guardian has a point:

​​If Russia wins in Ukraine, the country ends up broken,divided, and demoralized, with a dead-end economy, a deep anti-Western shift, and losing any shot at joining the EU. 1/ Image
Such an outcome would embolden Moscow to ramp up operations against Europe, more aggressive cyberattacks and election meddling.
2/
Putin’s rule thrives on conflict, so by 2029, he could still be pressing NATO’s boundaries, daring the alliance to respond.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Dec 19
Today, Putin admits that Russian economy is in trouble, the losses are not sustainable, but he won't negotiate with Zelensky, only with Trump. Why? Zelensky won't surrender Ukraine, he hopes Trump might

Here is what he says and what he means: 1/
Putin says: Inflation is a worrying signal, standing at 9.2%-9.3%, but real wages have grown faster than inflation. Therefore, the overall situation is stable

He means: The economy is unraveling, and even I can no longer sustain the illusion 2/
Putin says: Our soldiers are reclaiming territory by the square kilometer every day

He means: Our soldiers are dying by the thousands for my personal agenda 3/

Read 13 tweets
Dec 19
An Oscar winning Ukrainian, Mstyslav Chernov, is an extraordinary human! The best we produce as a human race. 1/ Image
In January Mstyslav Chernov will present his new film, 2000 Meters to Andriivka, at the Sundance Film Festival. It is a documentary about Ukrainian platoon fighting to liberate a strategic village during a (failed) counteroffensive last year. 2/
In 2020, Chernov filmed Belarus’s presidential elections, got thrown into a police van, and lost consciousness after a beating. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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