Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 24 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The defence-blog -dot- com website reported a very important observation on the production quality of current Russian Shahed production.

It's individual quality is declining, _Hard_.

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Russian End Run Production 🧵 Image
From the article:

“The Russians have adapted these drones to their needs, but due to a lack of components and efforts to reduce costs, their quality has declined,” Kulchytsky explained.

Earlier iterations of Shahed drones contained numerous foreign-made components,
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...including Japanese-manufactured bearings and precision-built servo drive rods.

However, recent versions have shown a transition to simplified bearings and direct rod assemblies, indicating a shortage of high-quality components."
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What stands out from the article is the shortage of bearing and flywheels of the original Iranian design.

Again from the article:

"The deterioration of Russian drone quality underscores the effectiveness of international efforts to restrict
4/
...the supply of high-tech components to Russia. Ukrainian experts are systematically analyzing components found in recovered drones and sharing this information with international partners.

“We see results from this effort,” Kulchytsky noted.
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“The lack of bearings and the simplifications in design reflect a lack of access to critical components, likely due to international sanctions and restrictions.”"

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Design simplification is something the Russians did ruthlessly with it's T-34 tank in WW2, but it still relied upon Western Lend Lease in terms of aluminium ingots to make the T-34 engine, vacuum tubes to make the T-34 radio, and waterproof telephone wire for its intercom.

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The Russian lack of high quality bearings has me thinking of the industrial position of Germany as of early 1945:

End run industrial production as stocks of imported strategic materials and intermediate industrial goods run out.

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Other than with a few hard core Western academic historians of WW2, the idea of end run industrial production in a long term war of attrition has faded from the cognizance of Western national security elites.

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The biggest single thing the Western Allies strategic bombing campaign in Europe did was force the dispersal of German war production that the follow up Feb-Mar 1945 transportation campaign used to collapse the Nazi economy.

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Ukraine's strategic bombing of Russia by drone and missiles has been consistently hitting the chemical feedstock supply chain of Russian explosives and propellant for shells & rockets as well as its specialty steel and electronics production.

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The mass Russian import of DPRK artillery barrels & munitions, plus its inability to make the steel for bearings for Shaheds, show Ukraine's strategic bombing are working in the end run industrial production sense.

These developments make Frederick Lanchester smile.

12/12 Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Dec 22
Sadly, this F-18 shoot down isn't a surprise.

The US Navy, as an institution, had a really horrid record of "friendly fire" in WW2, to include shooting down a FM-2 Wildcat fighter coming of the catapult of the CVE USS Tulagi in Kerama Retto on 6 Apr 1945.

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I've done threads on X highlighting this historical US Navy friendly fire institutional dysfunction.

2/
Another FM-2 Wildcat, damaged in the same Kerama Retto engagement resulting in the USS Tulagi's FM-2 getting shot down, was in turn blown out of the sky by panicked USN gunners over Kadena airfield causing massive damage to fighter fuel logistics & strafing Army troops ashore.
3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 21
Congress being held accountable for stealth legislation & pork barrel spending _BEFORE THE VOTE IS CAST_ is my most unexpected and welcomed result of Artificial Intelligence large language models (LLM) in 2024.

AI vs Lobbyists🧵
1/
It would take eight speed reading lawyers with eidetic memories 16 to 24 man hours to parse a 1000 page piece of legislation.

Specialty lawyers charging hundred of dollars an hour working for K-Street lobbyists.

2/
Now any competent person can feed huge pieces of legislation to Grok, or other LLM, for nearly no cost and generate a similar work product in minutes to post to social media.

K-Street lobbyists in DC, & Congressmen/Senators sucking up their cash, just had their world burn.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Dec 17
I've been involved with three US Army FMTV reset programs.

So this newest report from Ukraine's Defense Express on the the repairability problems with Russian AFV's out of their reserves is so much fun to share with you all.

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Defense Express pulled an article from the No. 10 issue of the Russian magazine "Material and Technical Support" on how horrid the vehicles coming out of reserve are plus problems with battle damaged reserve vehicles.

2/
en.defence-ua.com/analysis/repai…
The 2nd paragraph starts with this:

"The central takeaway from this publication is that the actual repairability of Russian tanks is 3-5 times lower than what is claimed in official manuals. This discrepancy has extended repair times for equipment by at least 15-20%."

3/
Read 12 tweets
Dec 16
Ukraine’s claims to have produced 100 Peklo (Hell) cruise missiles over the past three months.

This works out to about 1.1 Peklo a day, but manufacturing production lines don't work like that.

Peklo Manufacturing 🧵

1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
The infographic figure below is a typical commercial production line curve.

Ukraine's stated production and use of the Peklo (Hell) cruise missile marks it as being on the 'start of production to market entry' ramp up part of the curve below.

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Over two dozen Peklo were shown in this public unveiling by Ukraine, which is over 1/4 of the stated production to date.

How many were pre-production prototypes or low rate initial pilot production models isn't knowable.
3/
Read 12 tweets
Dec 15
This is Russian exceptionalism in action again.

The Putin Regime took old riverine tankers - Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft-239 - to sea:

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unian.ua/world/richkovi…
"According to Andriy Klymenko , head of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies , both vessels are very old and have a "river" class, which implies certain limitations.

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He published and commented on the relevant map, which indicates the approximate location of the tanker disaster.

"It is about 8 miles from the seaport of Taman (a transshipment port south of the Kerch Strait).

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dec 15
This was a very interesting operation by Ukraine to destroy a 'partisan immobilized' fuel train with Switchblade 600's, to burn the fuel.

The burning fuel will require that the annealed rails under the cars to be replaced to prevent derailments.

RuAF rail vulnerability🧵
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This will require a Russian military railway service train to be deployed to this spot for possible future Ukrainian Switchblade 600 follow up strikes.

2/
I've mentioned the vulnerability of Russian trains to Switchblade 600 back in April 2022.

A Switchblade 600 with a Javelin warhead is powerful enough to destroy the control section of a rail engine...
3/
Read 8 tweets

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