1/9 In nearly three years, russia has endured over 700,000 casualties, mobilized troops, emptied prisons, relied on mercenaries, and faced an overheating economy—yet it controls significantly less territory than it did in March 2022. What an absolute failure!
2/9 russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine, down from around 30% at the end of March 2022. Despite its efforts, the invasion has been a costly failure. Have you ever seen a successful invasion where the invader loses ground over time?
3/9 - 0 out of 23: that's the number of regional capitals and special status cities currently occupied by russia from those held by Ukraine at the start of the full-scale war. What a terrible failure!
4/9 Despite sacrificing its future with over 700,000 total casualties (potentially more) and an overheating economy, russia now controls less territory than it did three weeks into the full-scale invasion and is unlikely to achieve its initial strategic objectives in this war.
5/9 In addition to failing to meet its initial strategic objectives, russia is still battling on its own territory in the Kursk region, where Ukraine humiliated russia with an attack in August. russia has yet to push them out. Absolutely pathetic!
6/9 The situation is unlikely to improve for russia, as its economy is overheating due to the war and the significant labor shortage it has caused, while its Soviet-era stockpiles of equipment are also dwindling.
7/9 The saddest part is that this war is not only a costly failure, but also an unprovoked conflict initiated by Putin to satisfy his imperial ambitions. He has jeopardized his country's future and caused unnecessary Ukrainian deaths, all while failing to achieve his objectives.
8/9 Before any negotiations start, the West needs to realize that time is not on russia's side, and russia does not deserve any concessions. Additionally, russia is not genuinely interested in pursuing peace.
9/9 Sources:
The Carnegie Endowment - russia’s Economic Gamble: The Hidden Costs of War-Driven Growth
ISW
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1/6 Look at the absolute disaster unfolding right now, and remember exactly who told you to vote for Trump in 2024.
The people who sold you this catastrophe should be discredited forever, and you should never listen to their political advice again🧵
2/6 Remember the tech oligarchs who threw their billions behind him.
Musk, Sacks, Andreessen, and Thiel used their massive wealth, influence, and/or platforms to push this disaster on the public.
They only cared about their own power, ignoring the cost to regular people
3/6 Do not forget the podcasters and influencers who laundered his campaign.
Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, Paul brothers, Bradley Martyn, Dave Smith, and others relentlessly promoted him to massive audiences, trading the country's stability for engagement metrics and access
Iran’s military has been incredibly unimpressive in this war, but it still managed to back Trump into a corner and keep the regime alive.
The war is existential for Iran, not the US, and when you combine this with Trump’s horrible planning, you get a disaster
2/5 Usually an underdog has to pull off a massive military upset to corner a superpower, as we have seen in places like Ukraine. That is not happening here.
Iran is failing militarily. They have lost almost every single ”battle,” yet they are still ”beating” the US
3/5 The reason is simple:
Tactical victories mean little when the enemy is fighting for survival and you aren't ready to go as far.
For Tehran, this fight is existential. For the US, it is not
Tech oligarchs have made themselves universally hated simply by revealing who they truly are and how little self-awareness they possess.
They are, actually, the best argument against themselves
2/6 Some have crossed the line from opportunistic greed into neoreactionary extremism, with figures like Peter Thiel and Marc Andreessen leading the charge.
They insulate themselves from reality, and their absolute lack of self-awareness makes them dangerous
3/6 Andreessen recently gave an interview proudly admitting to having zero introspection.
We see the consequences of this daily.
When people wielding immense power refuse to ever look inward or question their motives, disaster inevitably follows