1/9 In nearly three years, russia has endured over 700,000 casualties, mobilized troops, emptied prisons, relied on mercenaries, and faced an overheating economy—yet it controls significantly less territory than it did in March 2022. What an absolute failure!
2/9 russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukraine, down from around 30% at the end of March 2022. Despite its efforts, the invasion has been a costly failure. Have you ever seen a successful invasion where the invader loses ground over time?
3/9 - 0 out of 23: that's the number of regional capitals and special status cities currently occupied by russia from those held by Ukraine at the start of the full-scale war. What a terrible failure!
4/9 Despite sacrificing its future with over 700,000 total casualties (potentially more) and an overheating economy, russia now controls less territory than it did three weeks into the full-scale invasion and is unlikely to achieve its initial strategic objectives in this war.
5/9 In addition to failing to meet its initial strategic objectives, russia is still battling on its own territory in the Kursk region, where Ukraine humiliated russia with an attack in August. russia has yet to push them out. Absolutely pathetic!
6/9 The situation is unlikely to improve for russia, as its economy is overheating due to the war and the significant labor shortage it has caused, while its Soviet-era stockpiles of equipment are also dwindling.
7/9 The saddest part is that this war is not only a costly failure, but also an unprovoked conflict initiated by Putin to satisfy his imperial ambitions. He has jeopardized his country's future and caused unnecessary Ukrainian deaths, all while failing to achieve his objectives.
8/9 Before any negotiations start, the West needs to realize that time is not on russia's side, and russia does not deserve any concessions. Additionally, russia is not genuinely interested in pursuing peace.
9/9 Sources:
The Carnegie Endowment - russia’s Economic Gamble: The Hidden Costs of War-Driven Growth
ISW
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1/13 Not to brag, but here are a few reasons why Finland is unlikely to be russia's first choice for a full-scale invasion beyond Ukraine. This does not mean we are not on russia's radar!
2/13 If the war in Ukraine comes to an end or eases at some point in the future, or if it continues while russia receives enough assistance from china, iran, north korea, and belarus to maintain its war economy, russia might also contemplate invading other areas.
3/13 russia has strategies prepared for its neighboring countries, including Finland, and has been conducting invasion drills for years. Although russia is significantly weakened economically and demographically, it depends on a sustained state of war.
1/8 Trump is turning soft on china and seeks to postpone the TikTok ban. What potential reasons could explain this betrayal and overall shift in his stance regarding china?
2/8 During his first term, Trump was seen as quite anti-china, despite much of it being rhetoric and his continued praise for Xi. Those days are clearly behind him now, as he seeks to postpone the TikTok ban and adopts a softer stance towards china overall.
3/8 Could it be that Trump’s relationship with Jeff Yass, an owner of ByteDance and a major donor to Trump, is influencing his stance? If so, that would be quite concerning and demonstrate how easily foreign adversaries can influence the next president.
1/14 From Overrated to Underrated: The symbolism of Ukraine's Kursk operation goes well beyond its military significance. A year after Ukraine's unsuccessful summer offensive, it showed the world that front lines can shift and that russia is vulnerable and can be defeated
2/14 When Ukraine launched its Kursk operation in August, it humiliated russia and boosted Ukrainian morale. This came at a time when the world doubted Ukraine and overlooked its earlier successes following the failed summer counteroffensive.
3/14 Ukraine demonstrated to the world its ability to plan operations while maintaining strong operational security. It can still surprise russia and even its allies.
1/8 MAGA regulars are finally starting to realize that tech bros look down on them and have merely leveraged their support to gain power for the sake of deregulating, lowering taxes, and protecting their business interests in china and russia
2/8 Tech bros like Musk, Vivek, and Sacks have little interest in MAGA regulars and their concerns. They didn’t gain power to assist them; rather, they did it to advance their own interests and benefit themselves. Billionaire tech bros couldn't care less about the average Joe!
3/8 MAGA regulars are about to realize that they have very little in common with the tech bros they helped elevate to power. Tech bros are billionaires focused on deregulation, lower taxes, and appeasing china and russia to avoid conflicts and protect their business interests.
1/5 Elon Musk is attacking Wikipedia after failing to buy it in order to turn it into a Kremlin propaganda machine (he really doesn't want you to verify facts!)
2/5 Elon Musk has once again criticized Wikipedia and urged his followers to stop donating to the platform. He previously made an offer to purchase Wikipedia, and it seems that offer is still on the table.
3/5 Musk seems determined to hinder Americans' ability to easily verify facts or access information. He appears willing to do whatever it takes to make many Americans even more unaware than they already are.
1/8 The Price of Blood: Western companies that invested in china and russia and cannot sell or list their businesses are facing the consequences they deserve. Supporting authoritarian regimes that are also our enemies carries significant risks, and they are now experiencing them
2/8 The world’s largest private equity firms have been unable to sell or list their china-based portfolio companies this year, as Beijing's crackdown on initial public offerings and a slowing economy have left foreign investors' capital stranded in the country.
3/8 According to Dealogic data, none of the 10 largest global private equity firms operating in china have listed a chinese company or fully sold their stake through an M&A deal this year.