ATACMS, like most precision weapons, have the most effect and impact when used en masse in geographically limited area and within a narrow time window as is possible, combined with decisive combined arms operation. I.e. Their use should be concentrated in time and space. 1/
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1872723237165252915
Ukraine chose to use its limited stockpile of Storm Shadow and later ATACMS to strike high value (in material and propaganda) targets of opportunity, spread out wide over geography and time, which diluted their overall impact and effect. 2/
Ukraine chose to use them to make this war as embarrassing and as costly as possible to Russia, and that certainly has some value, but aside from pushing Russian support and logistics further away from the frontline, their use had only very limited effect 3/
on the overall battlefield situation. Over the summer of 2023 Ukraine used the Storm Shadow in this fashion instead of concentrating their use against Russian command, control, logistics and support assets in support of their summer offensive. 4/
Yes, some command posts were hit, some logistics were affected and quite a few flashy targets in Crimea were destroyed, when instead there should have been an intensive flurry of strikes against a single Russian division and the army corps/ army assets above it 5/
To concentrate the shock effects from disrupted communications, material and personnel losses and impaired logistics in order to create the best possible chance for a breakthrough. ATACMS has been used in similar fashion, with Ukraine being unable to decisively 6/
Leverage them to obtain operational success. Not wasted, but not used to their fullest potential either. What I am most worried about is that getting the ATACMS and similar high profile, difficult to obtain weapon systems has taken political capital, time and energy, 7/
From acquiring more basic necessities like munitions, personal gear, medical equipment, artillery and vehicles etc which this war consumes in huge quantities and is the lifeblood keeping the Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefield. 8/8
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