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Graham Allison Profile picture
@GrahamTAllison
Dec 28 • 9 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1/ Musk has it exactly right. How does Team USA compete and win in a world in which China has 4 times as many people as we do, 4 times as many STEM graduates every year, and invests more than 4 times as much as we do in R&D?
2/ In one line: by recruiting the most talented individuals from all the 8 billion fellow inhabitants of planet Earth—and riding the waves they make as they realize their dreams.
3/ How did the US establish our position of leadership in science and technology to win World War II? By recruiting and welcoming the Einsteins, Fermis, and others who built the atomic bomb.
4/ Why does the US lead the world today in frontier technologies including AI, quantum, and biotech? Because more than half the leadership of the companies that lead the world today in these arenas—including Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, SpaceX, and more than half the unicorns created in the past decade—came to America to be all they could be.
5/ How many home-grown Americans now have good, high-paying jobs in companies founded and run by these talented immigrants? Tens of thousands of second, third, and Nth generation Americans work at these companies because they are here.
6/ Why are 90% of the advanced semiconductors produced in Taiwan rather than in the US? Because a short-sighted American company at which a Chinese-born, MIT-educated dreamer was working rejected his ambitious aspirations—and Morris Chang then moved to Taiwan where he founded and built TSMC.
7/ Super-talents like Einstein, Nikola Tesla, Andy Grove (a Hungarian emigrant who founded Intel and ran it for a generation in which it led the world in semiconductors), Sergey Brin (a Russian who co-founded Google/Alphabet), and @ElonMusk are 1 in a million.
8/ What better way to Make America Great than to successfully recruit these 1 in a million scientist and entrepreneur analogues of Jokic and Wemby and allow them to build their dreams here in the USA.
9/ The Million Talents Initiative that Eric Schmidt and I proposed in 2022 outlines a program not just for issuing more H-1B visas but for identifying and recruiting these superstars as aggressively as coaches and teams do in the sports world. foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/16/imm…

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More from @GrahamTAllison

Graham Allison Profile picture
Dec 5
Who’s wasting money on high-speed rail?

A reader of the Wall Street Journal could be excused for thinking the answer is China. See their recent article subtitled: “China’s train system is one of the biggest public works in history, and it’s becoming a giant money pit.” It spotlights China’s $500 billion spend on new rail in the past 5 years. wsj.com/world/china/xi…
But as the piece admits, California’s high-speed rail project linking San Francisco to Los Angeles has “grappled with costs spiraling to more than $100 billion and a still-uncertain completion date.”
What do China and the US have to show for their investments?

For $2 trillion total, China has constructed more high-speed rail than the rest of the world combined: 30,000 miles of track, enough to circle the globe, taking riders daily from Beijing to Shanghai at speeds upwards of 200 mph and freight from Chongqing to Zhengzhou at speeds of 125 mph.
Read 4 tweets
Graham Allison Profile picture
Nov 8
As he was struggling to absorb what happened on Tuesday, David Ignatius (@IgnatiusPost) , the nation’s leading foreign policy editorialist, called me up looking for silver linings. His piece that appeared in the @washingtonpost today captures several big ideas. Could Trump bring an end to the war in Ukraine?
I am betting that he will. And if he engaged Xi Jinping in his peace process, David quotes me as saying “the two should share a Nobel Peace Prize.” I agree.
We also spent a lot of time talking about Trump and nuclear weapons. Most people have forgotten nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, most people in the foreign policy community and the commentariat—fortunately not including Biden—have forgotten about nuclear weapons. Not Trump.
Read 6 tweets
Graham Allison Profile picture
May 3
1/ In the Auto Race, who is Number 1?
2/ In 2023, which nation made the most automobiles? Which nation’s citizens bought the most number of cars?
3/ The answers are: China and China. Indeed, China made and sold twice as many automobiles as Americans: 30 million to the US’ 15.5 million. Today, China accounts for 1/3rd of the cars made and sold around the world; the US for 1/6th.
Read 13 tweets
Graham Allison Profile picture
Apr 25
1/ Why is TSMC’s attempt to build a semiconductor factory in Arizona falling further and further behind? “TSMC’s debacle in the American desert” from Rest of the World offers clues:

restofworld.org/2024/tsmc-ariz…
2/ Since its announcement in 2022, the landmark Arizona plant has been delayed twice and is currently set to open in 2025, more than a year behind schedule.
3/ In contrast, TSMC’s equivalent factory in Kumamoto, Japan started construction in 2022 and began operations in February. Working 24/7, Japanese crews finished in 20 months—while the Arizona plants will take three years or more.
Read 6 tweets
Graham Allison Profile picture
Apr 11
Inconvenient Facts about the Chinese Economy.
The Peterson Institute’s Nick Lardy’s recent in Foreign Affairs, “China Is Still Rising,” offers a number of inconvenient facts that remind us to follow the numbers instead of the narratives.

foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
- China’s real GDP (growth minus inflation) is now 20% larger than it was before the COVID pandemic. The US economy has grown by only 8%.
Read 5 tweets
Graham Allison Profile picture
Apr 2
Having returned from a whirlwind tour of 9 intense days of meetings in Beijing, reflecting on my discussion with Xi Jinping:
While Xi’s primary objective in meeting with US business leaders (I was included as a ‘representative of the academic and strategic community’) was to emphasize that China is “open for business,” he was also interested in engaging about the broader geopolitical relationship.
I was invited to offer a 5-minute comment on the relationship between the US and China.
Read 12 tweets

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