1/ Who missed Hormuz? 2/ When asked during a recent @60Minutes interview whether Israel anticipated that Iran might move to close the Strait of Hormuz, an uncharacteristically sheepish Bibi Netanyahu (@netanyahu) almost completely avoided eye contact with interviewer Major Garrett (@MajorCBS) — eventually conceding that “the problem of the Hormuz Strait was understood as the fighting went on.”

1/ Wonders to be thankful for. 2/ One of the wonders of teaching at Harvard is that each year, a new crop of remarkable students shows up full of aspirations to make the world a better place. And indeed, some actually do.

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

In the two months before the current war with Iran, which nation expanded its national strategic reserve of oil: the US (which initiated the war) or China (which was simply preparing for what could happen)? 2/ Answer: China.

Between January and February 2026, China added ~74 million barrels to its strategic stockpile at a rate of 1.24 million barrels/day—more than double its 2025 pace of 570k barrels per day, or about 117% above the previous year’s average.

1/ How much additional cash is the war against Iran earning Putin’s Russia? 2/ Since the war began on February 27, Russia’s monthly oil revenues have nearly doubled from $9.75 billion to $19 billion.

1/ Assassination and the American Presidency:
What History Tells Us 2/ As we continue to digest the shocking shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday, it is worth pausing to consider a brute fact from history. Of the 45 men who have served as President of the United States, how many have been the target of serious assassination attempts that nearly ended their lives?

1/ China Challenge: Believe It or Not*

Taking the Lead in Token Consumption 2/ Measured by token consumption, which is the most popular AI model in the world?

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

Who has more vacant offices? The US or China? 2/ Answer: China: 24.5%—with the US running a close second at 21%, as Axios’ April 2 article on “Office vacancies hit record high” helps clarify.

axios.com/2026/04/02/off…

1/ Harvard Conversation With Former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy:

For those seeking illumination about the political road ahead in 2026, former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy provided dozens of points of light in a vigorous conversation with members of the Kennedy School and the larger Harvard community. I had the honor to be his host and moderator of the conversation. 2/ Having spent 17 years in the House of Representatives and having served in every role there, including as Speaker from January to October 2023, Kevin built a Republican majority by selecting candidates, coaching candidates, raising money for candidates, refining the case for his candidates, and most of all, persisting.

1/ Can the US compete in mass drone warfare? 2/ The US was the first country to develop the most remarkable drones the world has ever seen. Used heavily in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, by 2019, the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper had logged more than 4 million flight hours supporting combat operations.

1/ A Four-Star’s History Lesson on the Iran War

A must-read summary of a great listen: see @nytimes @DavidAFrench's conversation with former commander of US Special Forces in Afghanistan and Iraq Gen. Stanley McChrystal.

nytimes.com/2026/03/23/opi… 2/ To successfully meet the challenge the US currently faces in Iran, McChrystal recommends starting with “strategic empathy”: asking how the events occurring today look through the eyes of our adversary. (In the security studies canon, strategic empathy is an antidote to Americans’ natural “strategic narcissism” that understands events only through our own eyes, assumes others see the world as we do, and expects them to act only in response to our initiatives.)

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

The Escalator to Heaven 2/ Who has the longest stack of escalators in the world?

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

How late is Chinas high speed rail?

*As part of an effort to improve our understanding of China, I will continue to offer another “Believe It or Not” about China each week. Readers are invited to send along candidates for the list. 2/ Last week a @FinancialTimes story announced: “An ambitious high-speed rail project linking Poland and the Baltic states will probably be a decade late.” The 750-mile line that had been promised by 2030 will be delayed until at least 2040. ft.com/content/0fe9d0…

1/ Tracking the EV Race: Who is Super-Charged? 2/ Charging stations are a major constraint on the sales of EVs. A single Chinese EV manufacturer—BYD (in which Warren Buffett was one of the early investors)—announced that by the end of 2026, it will build an additional 20,000 charging stations across China. Moreover, with new technology at these stations, drivers can charge their cars’ batteries in 5 minutes.

1/ Trump’s year of tariffs produced a new high... for whom? 2/ 2025 was the year in which President Trump declared tariff war on adversaries and allies alike. This began with what he named “Liberation Day” on April 2nd and continued with fits and starts thereafter.

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

Global Manufacturing Value Added: In 2000, the US accounted for one-quarter of global manufacturing value-added. China accounted for 5%. 2/ What about today?

1/ Ukraine War: Who is winning, who is losing?

At the end of the 4th year of the full-scale war in Ukraine, many are asking: who is winning and who is losing? The answer is obviously complicated, but for comparing narrative vs. numbers, consider the following questions: 2/ Who has achieved more of its core objectives? When he ordered a massive invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin intended to erase Ukraine from the map. Most Western intelligence agencies gave him better than even odds of succeeding. Remarkably, Zelensky and his colleagues remained determined to fight for the survival of their country. Despite huge physical losses, Ukraine is a stronger nation today than it was before it was invaded.

1/ How long will this war go on? As we mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the most deadly war in Europe since World War II enters its 1,461st day. 2/ For comparison, see the chart below.

1/ Deglobalization Delusions: The successive waves of press noise about US-China decoupling, derisking, or now "divorce" deserve one more big D: delusional.

wsj.com/world/china/us… 2/ While Trump’s tariffs have caused a 25% decline in total trade between the US and China, China remains the US’s third-largest trading partner, right after Mexico and Canada, and the US remains China’s largest trading partner.

1/ Kick-Ass Robots 2/ Whose robots are kicking whose ass in the rivalry between US and Chinese technology companies? According to America’s leading promoter of humanoid robots, Elon Musk: “China is an ass-kicker, next level. We don’t see any significant humanoid robot competitors outside of China.”

1/ In the Trump administration’s effort to negotiate a sustainable peace/ceasefire in Ukraine, the dispute about territory has proved to be one of two final sticking points. Putin has continued to demand that Ukraine leave the last chunk of Donbas his troops have yet to seize. Zelenskyy has continued to insist that Ukraine would not give up at the negotiating table what its troops have successfully denied Russia on the battlefield. 2/ So: after nearly four years of war in which Ukraine has lost 12 percent of its territory, more than a fifth of its economy, and two thirds of its electrical infrastructure; suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties; and seen about a quarter of its citizens displaced, why the fuss about a piece of land the size of the state of Delaware?

1/ If you are having trouble sleeping at night, see attached three podcasts from the past month in which I offer my current best answers to a range of questions on US-China relations, Trump’s second term, and the international security order. 2/ The hosts of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast asked a number of uncomfortable questions:

- Whether the current discombobulation between the US and China comes down to the Thucydidean dynamics of a rapidly rising power seriously challenging a major ruling power? (My central proposition: Yes, much of the tension does arise from Thucydidean dynamics. Thus, if history is our best guide, war is likely—but not inevitable).

- What have I learned in 2025? (My answer: that the world is even more uncertain than I recognized this time last year. But in relations between the US and China, if we’re stretching for silver linings, mine include that Trump is decidedly not a China hawk and that he is serious about being remembered as a great peacemaker, including with China and Xi Jinping).

bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…