1/ China Challenge: Believe It or Not*

China’s Property Market 2/ Which Chinese asset market has posted negative returns over the last 20 years—a period of unmatched meteoric Chinese economic and business growth?

1/ The Stand-Out Stocks Of The Century 2/ Over the last century, the greatest engine of growth in individuals’ wealth has been the American stock market.

1/ Three key questions from last months Lowy Institute poll on Australian public opinion. poll.lowyinstitute.org 2/ Whom do Australians see as their most important relationship?

Answer: China

1/ China Challenge: Believe It or Not*

Shaking Up the Supercomputer Rankings 2/ Which supercomputer was named the fastest in the world by the latest edition of the respected Top500 rankings?

1/ Who has the “hottest” economy on planet earth today? 2/ President Trump declares repeatedly: the USA. As he posted on Truth Social in January, “All the smart money knows the "HOTTEST" Economy in the World is the U.S.A. TIME TO INVEST!” This week on Father’s Day he posted: “Our Country is doing GREAT. Record Jobs Numbers and Stock Market, BEST ECONOMY EVER! We are WINNING on all fronts, WINNING LIKE NEVER BEFORE.”

1/ While at the Versailles Palace outside Paris last Wednesday for dinner with President Macron during which he signed a peace agreement with Iran, President Trump and his advisors were likely not thinking about the history of the location and palace in which they were sitting. 2/ Had they asked an applied historian, they might have been reminded of previous capitulations as well as declarations of victory.

1/ What did Canada’s Prime Minister @MarkJCarney discuss with Xi Jinping when they met in Beijing? 2/ In his remarks to the Economic Club of New York (@EconClubNY) last week, Carney answered: Thucydides’s Trap.

https://x.com/sarobertson_/status/2060042551940218986?s=20

1/ Harvard Kennedy School 2026 graduates include a Medal of Honor recipient: Patrick Payne. 2/ Harvard Commencement is always a festival of distinctions. For me, today’s awarding of a degree to a Kennedy School graduate who has the rare distinction of having received a Medal of Honor is a first.

1/ As we fire up our grills for Memorial Day and look forward to July 4th when we will celebrate the 250th birthday of this nation, we should all pause and reflect. 2/ What do we the living owe those who gave their utmost to secure the freedom that we enjoy every day?

Freedom that we have become so accustomed to that most of us essentially take it for granted.

As one of my great mentors Henry Kissinger frequently noted, too many Americans imagine that “peace is the natural condition of mankind.”

In fact, as the bumper sticker version reminds us: “freedom is not free.”

1/ Who missed Hormuz? 2/ When asked during a recent @60Minutes interview whether Israel anticipated that Iran might move to close the Strait of Hormuz, an uncharacteristically sheepish Bibi Netanyahu (@netanyahu) almost completely avoided eye contact with interviewer Major Garrett (@MajorCBS) — eventually conceding that “the problem of the Hormuz Strait was understood as the fighting went on.”

1/ Wonders to be thankful for. 2/ One of the wonders of teaching at Harvard is that each year, a new crop of remarkable students shows up full of aspirations to make the world a better place. And indeed, some actually do.

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

In the two months before the current war with Iran, which nation expanded its national strategic reserve of oil: the US (which initiated the war) or China (which was simply preparing for what could happen)? 2/ Answer: China.

Between January and February 2026, China added ~74 million barrels to its strategic stockpile at a rate of 1.24 million barrels/day—more than double its 2025 pace of 570k barrels per day, or about 117% above the previous year’s average.

1/ How much additional cash is the war against Iran earning Putin’s Russia? 2/ Since the war began on February 27, Russia’s monthly oil revenues have nearly doubled from $9.75 billion to $19 billion.

1/ Assassination and the American Presidency:
What History Tells Us 2/ As we continue to digest the shocking shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday, it is worth pausing to consider a brute fact from history. Of the 45 men who have served as President of the United States, how many have been the target of serious assassination attempts that nearly ended their lives?

1/ China Challenge: Believe It or Not*

Taking the Lead in Token Consumption 2/ Measured by token consumption, which is the most popular AI model in the world?

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

Who has more vacant offices? The US or China? 2/ Answer: China: 24.5%—with the US running a close second at 21%, as Axios’ April 2 article on “Office vacancies hit record high” helps clarify.

axios.com/2026/04/02/off…

1/ Harvard Conversation With Former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy:

For those seeking illumination about the political road ahead in 2026, former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy provided dozens of points of light in a vigorous conversation with members of the Kennedy School and the larger Harvard community. I had the honor to be his host and moderator of the conversation. 2/ Having spent 17 years in the House of Representatives and having served in every role there, including as Speaker from January to October 2023, Kevin built a Republican majority by selecting candidates, coaching candidates, raising money for candidates, refining the case for his candidates, and most of all, persisting.

1/ Can the US compete in mass drone warfare? 2/ The US was the first country to develop the most remarkable drones the world has ever seen. Used heavily in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, by 2019, the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper had logged more than 4 million flight hours supporting combat operations.

1/ A Four-Star’s History Lesson on the Iran War

A must-read summary of a great listen: see @nytimes @DavidAFrench's conversation with former commander of US Special Forces in Afghanistan and Iraq Gen. Stanley McChrystal.

nytimes.com/2026/03/23/opi… 2/ To successfully meet the challenge the US currently faces in Iran, McChrystal recommends starting with “strategic empathy”: asking how the events occurring today look through the eyes of our adversary. (In the security studies canon, strategic empathy is an antidote to Americans’ natural “strategic narcissism” that understands events only through our own eyes, assumes others see the world as we do, and expects them to act only in response to our initiatives.)

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

The Escalator to Heaven 2/ Who has the longest stack of escalators in the world?

1/ China Challenge: Believe it or Not*

How late is Chinas high speed rail?

*As part of an effort to improve our understanding of China, I will continue to offer another “Believe It or Not” about China each week. Readers are invited to send along candidates for the list. 2/ Last week a @FinancialTimes story announced: “An ambitious high-speed rail project linking Poland and the Baltic states will probably be a decade late.” The 750-mile line that had been promised by 2030 will be delayed until at least 2040. ft.com/content/0fe9d0…