1/ Ukraine War: Who is winning, who is losing?

At the end of the 4th year of the full-scale war in Ukraine, many are asking: who is winning and who is losing? The answer is obviously complicated, but for comparing narrative vs. numbers, consider the following questions: 2/ Who has achieved more of its core objectives? When he ordered a massive invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Putin intended to erase Ukraine from the map. Most Western intelligence agencies gave him better than even odds of succeeding. Remarkably, Zelensky and his colleagues remained determined to fight for the survival of their country. Despite huge physical losses, Ukraine is a stronger nation today than it was before it was invaded.

1/ How long will this war go on? As we mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the most deadly war in Europe since World War II enters its 1,461st day. 2/ For comparison, see the chart below.

1/ Deglobalization Delusions: The successive waves of press noise about US-China decoupling, derisking, or now "divorce" deserve one more big D: delusional.

wsj.com/world/china/us… 2/ While Trump’s tariffs have caused a 25% decline in total trade between the US and China, China remains the US’s third-largest trading partner, right after Mexico and Canada, and the US remains China’s largest trading partner.

1/ Kick-Ass Robots 2/ Whose robots are kicking whose ass in the rivalry between US and Chinese technology companies? According to America’s leading promoter of humanoid robots, Elon Musk: “China is an ass-kicker, next level. We don’t see any significant humanoid robot competitors outside of China.”

1/ In the Trump administration’s effort to negotiate a sustainable peace/ceasefire in Ukraine, the dispute about territory has proved to be one of two final sticking points. Putin has continued to demand that Ukraine leave the last chunk of Donbas his troops have yet to seize. Zelenskyy has continued to insist that Ukraine would not give up at the negotiating table what its troops have successfully denied Russia on the battlefield. 2/ So: after nearly four years of war in which Ukraine has lost 12 percent of its territory, more than a fifth of its economy, and two thirds of its electrical infrastructure; suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties; and seen about a quarter of its citizens displaced, why the fuss about a piece of land the size of the state of Delaware?

1/ If you are having trouble sleeping at night, see attached three podcasts from the past month in which I offer my current best answers to a range of questions on US-China relations, Trump’s second term, and the international security order. 2/ The hosts of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast asked a number of uncomfortable questions:

- Whether the current discombobulation between the US and China comes down to the Thucydidean dynamics of a rapidly rising power seriously challenging a major ruling power? (My central proposition: Yes, much of the tension does arise from Thucydidean dynamics. Thus, if history is our best guide, war is likely—but not inevitable).

- What have I learned in 2025? (My answer: that the world is even more uncertain than I recognized this time last year. But in relations between the US and China, if we’re stretching for silver linings, mine include that Trump is decidedly not a China hawk and that he is serious about being remembered as a great peacemaker, including with China and Xi Jinping).

bloomberg.com/news/audio/202…

1/ Eric Schmidt, Henry Kissinger and AI. 2/ This week, @ericschmidt returned to the @Kennedy_School @JFKJrForum for the third year in a row to help us remember our colleague, mentor, and friend Henry Kissinger and check where we stand in the AI race.

1/ As each of us makes our list of things for which to give thanks this week, let me encourage you to include three more items that are explained in my @ForeignAffairs piece published today: 80, 80, and 9. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/… 2/ If you can identify the questions to which each of these numbers is an answer, you will have the big picture of what we should be thankful for in the international security arena, not just in the past year, but during our entire lifetimes.

1/ Life Lessons from the Sage of Omaha 2/ At the ripe young age of 95, Warren Buffett is handing over the leadership of his legendary investment company to his chosen successor, though he will remain Chairman of the Board.

1/ Betting on the November 2026 Midterm Election: Clues from Applied History. 2/ The November 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be one of the most consequential in memory. If Democrats take the House, President Trump will find his superpowers constrained. If on top of that there were also a recession, he could find himself fighting to escape impeachment.

1/ Clarifying President Trump’s “Testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis." 2/ Last week President Trump announced that “because of other countries’ testing programs,” he had “instructed the Department of War (@DeptofWar) to begin testing our nuclear weapons on an equal basis.”

1/ Is Xi In Trouble? 2/ Beijing announced last week that 9 generals have been purged, including He Weidong, whom Xi personally promoted to Central Military Commission Vice Chair and #3 commander of the People’s Liberation Army. Predictably, that news has provided a peg for Xi skeptics among the China watchers community to repeat their storyline claiming that Xi is in trouble.

1/ Will Trump and Xi Announce a New Rapprochement? 2/ As attention turns to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea on Thursday, several points may help provide perspective.

1/ Who Holds the High Cards in Sino-American Supply Chain Poker? foreignpolicy.com/2025/10/06/tru… 2/ In an article published on Monday in
@ForeignPolicy, I attempt to clarify the current supply chain and tariff face-off between the US and China.

1/ Can Oracle Power its 4.5-Gigawatt Promise? 2/ In heralding @OpenAI's contract with @Oracle to purchase $300 billion in computing power over the next five years, the @WSJ highlighted one major requirement: “4.5 gigawatts of power capacity, roughly comparable to the electricity produced by more than two Hoover Dams.”
wsj.com/business/opena…

1/ What word best reflects China’s dominance of green industries? 2/ Mind-bending. Or as @adam_tooze has described China’s solar boom in which China has installed more solar this year than the US has in history: “world-changing.” adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-40…

1/ In its story emphasizing the rise of podcasts titled “Traditional Media Chases Deals with Star Podcast Creators,” the @WSJ announced a fact. Attempting to emphasize the explosive growth of podcasts, it says “In 2025, US audiences 13 and older are spending 773 million hours a week with podcasts, according to data from Edison Research.” [emphasis added] wsj.com/business/media… 2/ How many hours a day or a week add up to the same figure?

1/ China gains on the US in ____? 2/ “China Gains on US in Submarine Power” is the headline of a fact-filled, full-page story in the weekend’s Wall Street Journal. The evidence summarized and graphic maps present a vivid picture of what has happened in the submarine race over the last decade. wsj.com/world/china/us…

1/ The High Speed Rail Race: Questions the @BostonGlobe didn’t ask. 2/ In celebrating @Amtrak's NextGen “high speed” train which began service last month between Boston and DC, the @BostonGlobe quotes the chair of Amtrak’s board of directors proclaiming “the biggest investment in rail stock in 25 years.” bostonglobe.com/2025/09/02/lif…

1/ Mapping Ukrainian Endgames 2/ When Ukrainian President Zelenskyy arrived in the Oval Office for his meeting with President Trump two weeks ago, he was surprised to find that Trump had mounted a large DOD map of Ukraine on an easel next to the Resolute Desk. The map noted in bold red the percentage of each of the Ukrainian provinces that Russian troops now control. Altogether, this amounts to about 44,000 square miles.

1/ Zuckerberg’s Dream Team of Superintelligents 2/ In the race to build AGI, no individual has undertaken a more focused and expensive campaign to recruit the best and brightest to his company than Mark Zuckerberg (@finkd).