Graham Allison Profile picture
Douglas Dillon Professor @Kennedy_School | Former Director @BelferCenter | Author of "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap?"
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Apr 11 5 tweets 1 min read
Inconvenient Facts about the Chinese Economy. The Peterson Institute’s Nick Lardy’s recent in Foreign Affairs, “China Is Still Rising,” offers a number of inconvenient facts that remind us to follow the numbers instead of the narratives.…
Apr 2 12 tweets 2 min read
Having returned from a whirlwind tour of 9 intense days of meetings in Beijing, reflecting on my discussion with Xi Jinping: While Xi’s primary objective in meeting with US business leaders (I was included as a ‘representative of the academic and strategic community’) was to emphasize that China is “open for business,” he was also interested in engaging about the broader geopolitical relationship.
Mar 13 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ The US vs China—who is growing faster than whom? 2/ Because that question has been answered by people using different metrics, it’s understandable that there has been some confusion. In real terms, the consensus supported by the World Bank and IMF agrees that China grew twice as fast as the US: 5.2% versus 2.5%.
Mar 8 8 tweets 2 min read
1/ China Facts: Who has the most competitive automobile market in the world? Who has the most competitive market for EVs in the world? 2/ The answer is China and China. China sold 30 million autos domestically last year. In contrast, the US sold only half as many—15.5 million. China also overtook Japan to become the world’s largest auto exporter.
Mar 7 4 tweets 1 min read
As @WSJ and other outlets sound the alarm that China’s 7.2% increase in military spending is “another hefty increase” in its decades-long military buildup, it is important to examine the facts. China’s 7.2% increase is nominal. If China hits its real GDP target of 5% and CPI target of 3%, its military spending as a percent of GDP will shrink in 2024.
Feb 2 8 tweets 2 min read
Last week, I was interviewed by @NYMag about the dangers of demonizing China. As politically profitable as demonizing China now is, it leads individuals to overestimate China’s strengths and to underestimate its vulnerabilities.… As people awake to the fact that China really is emerging in many arenas as a serious rival to the US and—in some instances—has already displaced the US as the predominant power, they are understandably alarmed.
Jan 30 6 tweets 2 min read
1/ In his FT article last week, @EdwardGLuce identifies another example of what I term the “Trump Put”—how the realization that Trump could indeed re-take office in a year’s time is causing governments and institutions to alter their behavior today. 2/ Ed notes that Wall Street executives are changing their tune on Trump, as their fiduciary duty ensures they are “paid to hedge bets.” When asked about JP Morgan's prospects under a Biden or Trump presidency, CEO Jamie Dimon said: “My company will survive and thrive in both.”
Jan 26 5 tweets 1 min read
At Davos, after a small-group discussion with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, an Israeli who was at the meeting caught me to say he’d been rereading my book: Essence of Decision. As he put it: the essence of the challenge Biden and his team face in dealing with the Israeli government is that differences within Bibi’s government are at least as big as differences between the US and Israel governments.
Dec 15, 2023 11 tweets 2 min read
China Hype. In the current political environment, politicians and commentators alike are competing to demonstrate who can make the most extreme charges against China. While as I’ve written, I believe it is essential to recognize that China is and will be the fiercest rival a ruling power has ever faced, I am also convinced that the current demonization of China confuses more than it clarifies.