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Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@evgen1232007
Dec 28 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Thread. Today is a working day in Russia.

Bonds of the Financial and Industrial Corporation "Garant-Invest" continue to fall for the third day. The price has dropped to 18% of the face value.
1/ Image
The corporation owns a chain of shopping malls in Moscow. Two days ago, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation revoked the license of the bank owned by the corporation.

Judging by the bond price chart, default is very close
2/
yield 334%
🤣🤣🤣
3/

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More from @evgen1232007

Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 17
Thread.
In this thread I will tell you about the problems of Russia, which no one has published about before. Problems of state monopolies. Let's begin.
Avtodor - 30% yield
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В условиях растущей инфляции и ожиданий очередного повышения ключевой облигации государственных монополий начали обвал.
Почта России - доходность 28%
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Russian Railways, yield 26%
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Read 8 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 12
Bankruptcies of the Russian debt market.
Part 2. Thread.
Yesterday I detailed the sectoral problems. The real estate sector is the leader. Well, let's figure it out.
Here are the stock charts of the two largest developers.
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And here are the quotes of the developers' bonds in descending order by value. In these tables you can see how rapidly the bonds are falling in price. Yields reach 40-50% But why did this happen? More on that below
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Before the war with Ukraine in 2022, the state issued preferential loans, but their share did not exceed 30%. Because of the war, lending on market terms collapsed. The state had to save the sector. Programs expanded, and requirements were reduced.
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Read 12 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Dec 11
Analysis of the Russian corporate debt market. Defaults are near!

The latest inflation data in Russia shows poor dynamics, which means that the Central Bank will raise the key rate again. This will affect many companies. Well, let's figure out what is happening in Russia.
1/ Image
In the chart above, we see the dynamics of credit spreads by industry sectors. Let's figure out what happened and why there is such a huge spread.
The corporate debt market in Ru has been actively growing for many years. So this year, 264 issuers placed bonds for 14 trill rub
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After the sanctions were imposed, issuers were forced to switch to the domestic loan market. Which led to multiple growth. In 2023, bonds worth 5.9 trillion rubles were placed there.
In 2024, already for 6.3 trillion rubles
3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 26
Thread.
I'm tired of reading about how good things will be for Russian exporters and how Russia's trade balance will improve.
People don't understand the basics of economics. If the ruble rate soars by 10% per month, the population will start withdrawing money from deposits.
1/4
Who needs these deposits at 20% per annum if it's easier to buy dollars. But when deposits start to flow out of banks, a banking crisis begins. Banks start to go bankrupt. The entire financial system of the country collapses. Accounts are frozen. Businesses are idle.
2/4
The economy collapses. Some people are left without money. And after that, everything stops. Inflation needs to be kept under control. And in Russia, it looks like panic and collapse are starting!
3/4
Read 4 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 24
Please retweet in advance.
This will be a long thread in which I will explain and show the approach of mass corporate defaults in Russia.
I will also show that Putin's economy is currently in the worst possible position.
Here is the IFX-CBONDS G-SPREAD index
1/n Image
It shows the difference between the yield of OFZ and corporate bonds. It is currently at a historical maximum. The huge growth occurred after November 5.
2/n Image
This is a graph of the growth of spreads depending on the credit rating. For bonds and loans.
3/n Image
Read 19 tweets
Evgen Istrebin 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Nov 22
Thread.
The CB Ru set the maximum limit for monthly repo auctions at 500 billion rub from November 25
Based on the cross-schedule of allocation and repayment, I assume that a total of 1.5-2 trillion rub will be allocated for the purchase of OFZ to finance the budget deficit.
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Since the beginning of the year, the volume of OFZs in circulation has grown by only 880 billion, while according to the plan, the government debt should grow by 2.5-3 trillion.
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They already did this in 2022. OFZs worth 2.3 trillion rubles were sold in 1.5 months (see previous chart)
3/n
Read 10 tweets

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