🚨🚨 $ASTS WEEK IN REVIEW🚨🚨
Blue Origin hot fires successfully (despite earlier market rumors), some year in reviews, STA updates, and much more...
Blue Origin hot fires successfully (despite earlier market rumors), some year in reviews, STA updates, and much more...
AST SpaceMobile’s Transformational Year:
ASTS has undergone a significant evolution over the past year, transforming from a company grappling with technical and financial uncertainty to one with strong partnerships (Google, Verizon, AT&T), validated FCC approvals, government deals, and an emerging satellite technology platform. Block 1 deployment has shown real progress, and ASTS is now positioned as a potential leader in the direct-to-device satellite market. Challenges remain in scaling, securing additional funding, and achieving full regulatory approval.
Competitive Landscape: ASTS vs. Starlink:
Expert interviews highlight AST SpaceMobile’s unique approach with high-capacity satellites and large antennas, enabling superior speeds (20–100 Mbps). In contrast, Starlink leverages its rapid satellite deployment and spectrum agreements with T-Mobile to offer near-term services but with limited capacity and slower speeds (1–2 Mbps). Both companies face regulatory, technical, and financial hurdles as they race to capture growing demand in satellite-based IoT and connectivity markets.
Market Dynamics and Catalysts:
Key upcoming catalysts include potential BAML analyst coverage, further FCC spectrum decisions, and advancements in ASTS’s satellite deployments. Spectrum reuse and beamforming technologies remain critical to ASTS’s ability to scale and compete effectively. Meanwhile, broader telco market changes, like Verizon selling 6,300 towers and AT&T phasing out copper networks, underscore the push toward capital-efficient infrastructure and advanced wireless technologies.
Regulatory and Legal Developments:
Viasat has filed complaints against Starlink’s spectrum use, emphasizing interference and procedural concerns. This adds complexity to the regulatory landscape as ASTS and others vie for approval. ASTS’s ability to navigate these challenges will be pivotal for its success.
Investor Sentiment and Financial Developments:
Tax-loss selling and prior high trading volumes at levels above $25 suggest a reset in investor expectations, creating opportunities for a fresh start in 2025. ASTS’s recent shareholder decisions and redemptions also provide clarity on its financial position going into the new year.
Industry Highlights:
Telco Evolution: AT&T’s $6B annual maintenance cost for copper networks highlights the operational burdens of legacy infrastructure. Phasing out copper could unlock billions in recoverable resources.
Blue Origin and SpaceX Updates: Excitement continues in the space industry, with milestones such as static fire tests for upcoming launches.
IoT Potential: The adoption of 5G spectrum for satellite communication opens new avenues for integrating satellite connectivity into cars, industrial sensors, and more.
ASTS has undergone a significant evolution over the past year, transforming from a company grappling with technical and financial uncertainty to one with strong partnerships (Google, Verizon, AT&T), validated FCC approvals, government deals, and an emerging satellite technology platform. Block 1 deployment has shown real progress, and ASTS is now positioned as a potential leader in the direct-to-device satellite market. Challenges remain in scaling, securing additional funding, and achieving full regulatory approval.
Competitive Landscape: ASTS vs. Starlink:
Expert interviews highlight AST SpaceMobile’s unique approach with high-capacity satellites and large antennas, enabling superior speeds (20–100 Mbps). In contrast, Starlink leverages its rapid satellite deployment and spectrum agreements with T-Mobile to offer near-term services but with limited capacity and slower speeds (1–2 Mbps). Both companies face regulatory, technical, and financial hurdles as they race to capture growing demand in satellite-based IoT and connectivity markets.
Market Dynamics and Catalysts:
Key upcoming catalysts include potential BAML analyst coverage, further FCC spectrum decisions, and advancements in ASTS’s satellite deployments. Spectrum reuse and beamforming technologies remain critical to ASTS’s ability to scale and compete effectively. Meanwhile, broader telco market changes, like Verizon selling 6,300 towers and AT&T phasing out copper networks, underscore the push toward capital-efficient infrastructure and advanced wireless technologies.
Regulatory and Legal Developments:
Viasat has filed complaints against Starlink’s spectrum use, emphasizing interference and procedural concerns. This adds complexity to the regulatory landscape as ASTS and others vie for approval. ASTS’s ability to navigate these challenges will be pivotal for its success.
Investor Sentiment and Financial Developments:
Tax-loss selling and prior high trading volumes at levels above $25 suggest a reset in investor expectations, creating opportunities for a fresh start in 2025. ASTS’s recent shareholder decisions and redemptions also provide clarity on its financial position going into the new year.
Industry Highlights:
Telco Evolution: AT&T’s $6B annual maintenance cost for copper networks highlights the operational burdens of legacy infrastructure. Phasing out copper could unlock billions in recoverable resources.
Blue Origin and SpaceX Updates: Excitement continues in the space industry, with milestones such as static fire tests for upcoming launches.
IoT Potential: The adoption of 5G spectrum for satellite communication opens new avenues for integrating satellite connectivity into cars, industrial sensors, and more.
🎇ASTS Had a Year
A year ago we didn’t have Google and Verizon. AT&T wasn't an investor. We had no DA's. We had delayed Block 1 with real prospects the satellites were FUBAR'd (who knew). We had no FCC rules. We had no government deals. We weren't a prime contractor. We weren't selected by the Space Development Authority. We had no cash. We had no launch capacity confirmed beyond Block 1. Our ASIC was a question mark. Scott wasn't President.
x.com/AST_SpaceMobil…
A year ago we didn’t have Google and Verizon. AT&T wasn't an investor. We had no DA's. We had delayed Block 1 with real prospects the satellites were FUBAR'd (who knew). We had no FCC rules. We had no government deals. We weren't a prime contractor. We weren't selected by the Space Development Authority. We had no cash. We had no launch capacity confirmed beyond Block 1. Our ASIC was a question mark. Scott wasn't President.
x.com/AST_SpaceMobil…
💡And then Catse did his thing…
From a curious mind, money will follow
From a curious mind, money will follow
https://x.com/CatSE___ApeX___/status/1871568829102645408
🐘Sizing The Market
I believe our known commercial opportunity will continue to grow
I believe our known commercial opportunity will continue to grow
https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/1871284390518526171
🆒Cool Data
We see just how tight $ASTS's beam forming is. You want to be below -120dBW when outside your key target area, or area of in-band emissions. At the edges, you want the power to drop off so you don't interview.
We see just how tight $ASTS's beam forming is. You want to be below -120dBW when outside your key target area, or area of in-band emissions. At the edges, you want the power to drop off so you don't interview.
https://x.com/CatSE___ApeX___/status/1872778846757634052
🥼Expert Network Transcript
The expert interview highlights the competitive landscape of direct-to-device satellite technologies, focusing on AST SpaceMobile and Starlink. Both companies are vying to deliver innovative solutions that enable smartphones to connect directly to satellites, but they face significant hurdles in spectrum allocation and scalability. AST SpaceMobile leverages partnerships with AT&T and Verizon to access larger spectrum blocks, potentially allowing for higher data speeds (20–100 Mbps). In contrast, Starlink benefits from T-Mobile's exclusive G-block spectrum, which simplifies regulatory approval but limits service speeds (1-2 mbps) and capacity. The regulatory environment is a critical factor, with AST requiring FCC approvals for its ambitious plans, while Starlink’s smaller spectrum footprint and political favorability position it as a frontrunner for expedited approval. Antenna size and design play a crucial role in determining the performance and scalability of satellite services. AST SpaceMobile employs massive antennas (up to 223 square meters), enabling it to deliver superior link performance, narrower beams, and higher speeds compared to Starlink. However, these large antennas come at a significant cost, both in manufacturing and deployment. Starlink takes a different approach, relying on frequent satellite launches to scale capacity, with plans for over 800 satellites equipped for direct-to-device services. While Starlink’s approach offers flexibility and rapid deployment, AST’s focus on large-scale, high-capacity satellites positions it to provide more robust services if it can overcome its technical and financial hurdles. The report delves into the technical challenges associated with scaling these services to commercial viability. AST SpaceMobile must demonstrate its ability to provide continuous coverage and manage interference, which becomes exponentially more complex with increased subscriber numbers and satellite handoffs. Its initial deployment of five satellites provides limited, intermittent coverage and will need to grow to at least 40-45 satellites to achieve continuous service in the U.S. Starlink, on the other hand, benefits from its rapid deployment cadence, with hundreds of satellites already in orbit, enabling it to turn on limited services as early as next year. Beyond technical capabilities, the report emphasizes the market potential of these technologies, particularly in the IoT sector. The adoption of standardized 5G spectrum for satellite communication opens opportunities to integrate satellite connectivity into a wide range of IoT devices, from cars to industrial sensors. AST SpaceMobile’s ability to support high-capacity links positions it well for such applications, but its dependence on regulatory approvals and high costs could limit its market penetration. Starlink’s lower data rate services are less suited for high-demand applications but are positioned to capture a large share of the low-rate IoT and messaging markets. In conclusion, the interview provides a nuanced perspective on the emerging direct-to-device satellite market. AST SpaceMobile offers a high-performance solution with substantial technical advantages but faces challenges in scaling its constellation and securing regulatory approval. Starlink, with its rapid deployment strategy and lower regulatory barriers, is better positioned to deliver near-term services, albeit with much lower speeds and capacity. Both companies must navigate a complex landscape of technical, regulatory, and financial challenges to capitalize on the growing demand for satellite-based connectivity.
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
The expert interview highlights the competitive landscape of direct-to-device satellite technologies, focusing on AST SpaceMobile and Starlink. Both companies are vying to deliver innovative solutions that enable smartphones to connect directly to satellites, but they face significant hurdles in spectrum allocation and scalability. AST SpaceMobile leverages partnerships with AT&T and Verizon to access larger spectrum blocks, potentially allowing for higher data speeds (20–100 Mbps). In contrast, Starlink benefits from T-Mobile's exclusive G-block spectrum, which simplifies regulatory approval but limits service speeds (1-2 mbps) and capacity. The regulatory environment is a critical factor, with AST requiring FCC approvals for its ambitious plans, while Starlink’s smaller spectrum footprint and political favorability position it as a frontrunner for expedited approval. Antenna size and design play a crucial role in determining the performance and scalability of satellite services. AST SpaceMobile employs massive antennas (up to 223 square meters), enabling it to deliver superior link performance, narrower beams, and higher speeds compared to Starlink. However, these large antennas come at a significant cost, both in manufacturing and deployment. Starlink takes a different approach, relying on frequent satellite launches to scale capacity, with plans for over 800 satellites equipped for direct-to-device services. While Starlink’s approach offers flexibility and rapid deployment, AST’s focus on large-scale, high-capacity satellites positions it to provide more robust services if it can overcome its technical and financial hurdles. The report delves into the technical challenges associated with scaling these services to commercial viability. AST SpaceMobile must demonstrate its ability to provide continuous coverage and manage interference, which becomes exponentially more complex with increased subscriber numbers and satellite handoffs. Its initial deployment of five satellites provides limited, intermittent coverage and will need to grow to at least 40-45 satellites to achieve continuous service in the U.S. Starlink, on the other hand, benefits from its rapid deployment cadence, with hundreds of satellites already in orbit, enabling it to turn on limited services as early as next year. Beyond technical capabilities, the report emphasizes the market potential of these technologies, particularly in the IoT sector. The adoption of standardized 5G spectrum for satellite communication opens opportunities to integrate satellite connectivity into a wide range of IoT devices, from cars to industrial sensors. AST SpaceMobile’s ability to support high-capacity links positions it well for such applications, but its dependence on regulatory approvals and high costs could limit its market penetration. Starlink’s lower data rate services are less suited for high-demand applications but are positioned to capture a large share of the low-rate IoT and messaging markets. In conclusion, the interview provides a nuanced perspective on the emerging direct-to-device satellite market. AST SpaceMobile offers a high-performance solution with substantial technical advantages but faces challenges in scaling its constellation and securing regulatory approval. Starlink, with its rapid deployment strategy and lower regulatory barriers, is better positioned to deliver near-term services, albeit with much lower speeds and capacity. Both companies must navigate a complex landscape of technical, regulatory, and financial challenges to capitalize on the growing demand for satellite-based connectivity.
x.com/spacanpanman/s…
🗼Verizon Sells 6,300 Towers
Old news, but this is the closing of the deal.
finance.yahoo.com/news/verizon-c…
Old news, but this is the closing of the deal.
finance.yahoo.com/news/verizon-c…
🏀Throwing Copper
Super expensive to maintain an old network.
Super expensive to maintain an old network.
https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/1871968263686795295
👊Viasat Joins the Beatdown
Viasat goes after Starlink's ability to operate internationally, saying there are interference concerns
licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/downloa…
Viasat goes after Starlink's ability to operate internationally, saying there are interference concerns
licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/downloa…
🧳Bring Your Beacon
Starlink's partners run for legal cover
Starlink's partners run for legal cover
https://x.com/onenzofficial/status/1871046438219546817
🩵Blue Origin Getting It's Video Game
Exciting times for the Space Industry
Exciting times for the Space Industry
https://x.com/xdNiBoR/status/1871220752651112469
🎁Lauren Sanchez's Dream Gift
Lauren: "Jeff, let's kiss under some mistletoe"
Jeff: Launch a missile, yes.
Lauren: "Jeff, let's kiss under some mistletoe"
Jeff: Launch a missile, yes.
https://x.com/ChadDude301/status/1871264194781434270
🚀Static Fire
This stuff is cool. Our fancy ride is getting ready. If there is a delay, ASTS will just Uber on SpaceX and wait for its car service when it's ready
This stuff is cool. Our fancy ride is getting ready. If there is a delay, ASTS will just Uber on SpaceX and wait for its car service when it's ready
https://x.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1872807022430961789
😻Successful Test Fire
FUDsters tried to FUD on Friday. Oops. Bezos passed a key step.
FUDsters tried to FUD on Friday. Oops. Bezos passed a key step.
https://x.com/blueorigin/status/1872827014278774846
⚾️SLAM Fades Away
x.com/ASTS_Investors…
In connection with the vote to approve the Extension Amendment Proposal and the Founder Share Amendment Proposal, the holders of 7,077,959 Public Shares properly exercised their right to redeem their shares for cash at a redemption price of approximately $11.39 per share, for an aggregate redemption amount of approximately $80,684,883.36. After the satisfaction of such redemptions the balance in the Trust Account will be approximately $22,798,912.34. As of December 18, 2024, there are 2,000,000 Public Shares outstanding.
x.com/ASTS_Investors…
In connection with the vote to approve the Extension Amendment Proposal and the Founder Share Amendment Proposal, the holders of 7,077,959 Public Shares properly exercised their right to redeem their shares for cash at a redemption price of approximately $11.39 per share, for an aggregate redemption amount of approximately $80,684,883.36. After the satisfaction of such redemptions the balance in the Trust Account will be approximately $22,798,912.34. As of December 18, 2024, there are 2,000,000 Public Shares outstanding.
I'll try to do a recap on Spaces tomorrow, but might be ad hoc and people can catch it on replay.
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