Crémieux Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024 37 tweets 11 min read Read on X
A few days ago, Biden commuted the death sentences of almost every federal death row inmate.

Every single person whose sentence Biden commuted was verifiably evil and clearly earned the death penalty.

Let's go through all 37🧵
Shannon Agofsky drowned a bank manager alive, received life in prison, and in prison, kept talking about how he was itching to beat up other prisoners.

Then he killed a fellow prisoner by stomping his neck in and causing him to drown in his own blood.

On camera. Guilty. Image
Billie Allen killed a bank guard during a bank robbery, using a semi-automatic weapon.

Allen and his accomplice also stole two vans to use as getaway vehicles the night before.

He was inspired by the movies "Set It Off" and "Heat" and he was caught red-handed. Guilty. Image
Aquila Marcvicci Barnette got dumped by his girlfriend and tried to firebomb her house to kill her

He was charged with murder and arson, but fled. In his attempt to escape the law, he carjacked a man, whom he killed, and proceeded to try to kill his ex-girlfriend again.

Guilty.
Brandon Basham and Chadrick Fulks kidnapped and murdered Alice Donovan after they escaped from prison.

The remains weren't discovered for seven years. They also admitted they killed another woman, Samantha Burns.

They are guilty. Image
Anthony Battle raped and killed his (marine) wife and received life in prison. He then killed a prison guard and was sentenced to death.

He told the jurors that the guard "died like a dog".

Guilty.
Meier Brown went to a post office, picked up his mail, and decided to come back to rob it.

He claims he tripped on his victim, Sally Gaglia, and accidentally cut her, so he decided to stab her to death because he knew her.

Admitted to his crimes. Guilty. Image
Carlos Caro was a drug smuggler serving out his sentence in prison.

One day, he decided to murder his cellmate, and for that, he turned his 30 years into the death penalty.

They were alone in a cell and the evidence was all over him. No one else did the crime.

Guilty.
Wesley Coonce and Charles Hall were serving sentences for, respectively, a carjacking that ended in sexual assault, and threatening a judge.

One day, they witnessed some other inmates attacking a guard. Victor Rodriguez ran to help the guard, so these men killed him.

Guilty.
Brandon Council walked into a bank to rob it.

Right after walking in the door, he shot Donna Major three times. He then proceeded to shoot Kathryn Skeen as well. They were just bank employees.

Caught on camera. Very guilty, and Donna Major's family is appalled at Biden. Image
Christopher Cramer, Ricky Fackrell, and Leo Johns were all prisoners and members of the gang Soldiers Of The Aryan Culture.

For some reason, Leo Johns fell out of favor with the gang, and Cramer and Fackrell murdered him.

It was obvious who did it. Guilty. Image
Len Davis was a rotten cop. He dealt crack, he arrested innocents, he stole cars, and the Feds were onto him, so he had a wiretap going.

One day, he killed a witness to him assaulting someone, and the feds caught him on tape, gleeful about it.

Terribly guilty of so many crimes. Image
Joseph Ebron was serving a life sentence for a back-to-back series of murders when he decided to help another inmate kill a different inmate.

The pair stabbed the man 106 times and were caught red-handed.

Guilty. Image
Edward Fields is a delusional schizophrenic former prison guard who stalked a couple in a national park before ultimately electing to kill them.

He fessed up to all of his crimes.

Guilty. Image
Marvin Gabrion is another delusional schizophrenic, and his rap sheet is really something. You should just go and read about it.

Short story, he's a serial killer, rapist, arsonist, and he beat up his own lawyer in the court room to top it all off.

So stunningly guilty. Image
Edgar Garcia and Mark Snarr were being escorted to their cells by a pair of correctional officers.

Then they slipped out of their restraints, pulled out some shivs they made, and stabbed the officers before grabbing their keys and running off to kill another inmate.

Guilty.
Thomas Hager is a former drug dealer who killed several people in the course of his other crimes.

His death sentence was earned for one of those murders in which he killed a single mother in her apartment with two other men, leaving her 13-month-old baby alone there.

Guilty.
Norris Holder was another one on this list who was caught doing a bank robbery in which he killed a guard.

This is such an easy crime to get caught dead-to-rights doing, and yet, his sentence is being commuted.

Guilty.
Richard Jackson kidnapped a woman, raped her, tied her to a tree, and then shot her in the head.

He confessed to all of this, but on appeal, he claimed the court didn't justify the claim that he did a "crime of violence".

Good luck on that, because he's very, very guilty. Image
Jurijus Kadamovas and Iouri Mikhel were Soviet-born mobsters who kidnapped and killed five people, and demanded ransom, were caught with four other people, and were, simply, stupidly and obviously caught.

Guilty. Image
Image
Daryl Lawrence... bank robber, killed guard, etc.

This crime leads to people getting caught rapidly, with lots of video evidence, and usually with fresh evidence they shot someone.

Guilty. Image
Ronald Mikos was a doctor who had defrauded Medicare, and he went out and got egregiously caught killing one of the women set to testify against him as a witness before a grand jury.

Guilty. Image
James Roane was a drug trafficker who got caught killing his rivals, in addition to his many, many other crimes.

He did this with a gang and they were more than willing to rat on each other, but given all the evidence, that wasn't even needed.

Guilty. Image
Julius Robinson was a drug dealer who murdered three people, and did drive-bys of cars that were similar to the ones his rivals owned.

Caught red-handed. Very guilty. Image
David Runyon was a hitman hired by a Navy veteran's wife to kill the vet in a scheme to obtain a life insurance payout.

Caught thanks to being stupid and working with stupid people.

Guilty. Image
Ricardo Sanchez and Daniel Troya are gangsters who stopped a family of four on the highway in West Palm Beach, killing the mother, father, and their two kids for a drug debt.

Caught very easily.

Guilty. Image
Thomas Sanders abducted and murdered a twelve-year-old days after he killed the girl's mother.

He showed no remorse, so we shouldn't show any for him.

Guilty. Image
Kaboni Savage.

This man's story is terrible and his surname fits who he is. He was a drug 'kingpin' of sorts, and he killed a lot of people and was caught very red-handed.

Guilty as sin. Image
Rejon Taylor: Carjacking, kidnapping, and murdering a restaurant owner.

Guilty. Image
Richard Tipton is another drug kingpin of sorts, who killed a lot of people in the course of doing his 'job'.

He got caught with James Roane, mentioned above.

Guilty. Image
Jorge Torrez is a serial killer who killed a female Naval officer... in her barracks.

Stupid. Evil. And Guilty. Image
Alejandro Umana is a member of MS-13 and he killed two brothers in a public restaurant.

Guilty. Image
All of these people are horrendously guilty and not one guilty judgment is uncertain. There is no defending commuting their sentences.

These people are a risk to other prisoners, to guards, and an unaddressed evil we could have ended.

But Biden is protecting them.
Biden's stance is not based on a wholesale rejection of the death penalty. He's keeping it in place people who committed hate crimes and were involved in terrorism.

The means he's kept on Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, Dylann Roof, and Robert Bowers. Image
This is what's so malicious about Biden's actions.

If you reserve the death penalty for a few who did politically sensitive crimes, but not horrible serial killers, you're sending a signal about which victims matter.

To Biden, so many victims and their families don't matter.
On that, we can be certain: Biden is guilty. He is guilty of failing to act in the interests of his constituents and failing to ensure justice is done.

He's letting evil people live.

There's no doubt in my mind that this should be a black mark on his already-contentious legacy.
And for opponents of the death penalty, there's a general lesson here:

If you want to oppose the death penalty, you cannot usually argue against it on the grounds that defendants might be innocent. The typical case is a deeply evil person who leaves no doubt as to their evil.

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Nov 25
After this article came out, several people responded, alleging that a cultural model made more sense.

Clark has a point-by-point response🧵

Let's start with the first thing: parent-child and sibling correlations in status measures are identical—hard to explain culturally! Image
The reason this is hard to explain has to do with the fact that kids objectively have more similar environments to one another than to their parents.

In fact, for a cultural theory to recapitulate regression to the mean across generations, these things would need to differ! Image
Another fact that speaks against a cultural explanation is that the length of contact between fathers and sons doesn't matter for how correlated they are in status.

We can see this by leveraging the ages parents die at relative to said sons. Image
Read 10 tweets
Nov 24
The idea:

The internet gives everyone access to unlimited information, learning tools, and the new digital economy, so One Laptop Per Child should have major benefits.

The reality:

Another study just failed to find effects on academic performance. Image
This is one of those findings that's so much more damning than it at first appears.

The reason being, laptop access genuinely provides people with more information than was available to any kid at any previous generation in history.

If access was the issue, this resolves it. Image
And yet, nothing happens

This implementation of the program was more limited than other ones that we've already seen evaluations for though. The laptops were not Windows-based and didn't have internet, so no games, but non-infinite info too

Still huge access improvement though
Read 4 tweets
Nov 22
What is the effect of having a parent get locked away on a kids' own risk of eventually committing crime?

As it turns out, basically nil.

Having a mother or a father locked away doesn't significantly increase risk, and indeed, may reduce it if it happens at an early age. Image
This is relative to no incarceration, so the result should be interpreted as... pretty shocking!

Similarly, we can look at the effects of longer versus shorter parental sentences.

There's seemingly little effect of the length of time parents are incarcerated for. Image
Compare those within-family estimates from above with these between-family results from the same study, period, cohort, etc.

Notice: the apparent 'effects' between families are significant stratified in the same way.

That's an important distinction! Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 20
Why?

I doubt the answer is weight loss. Consider 2 other drugs for diabetes: DPP-4 and SGLT-2 inhibitors

GLP-1RAs are associated with less Alzheimer's vs. DPP-4is:

But not SGLT-2is:

Neither generates much weight loss, but SGLT-2is match GLP-1RAs on glycemic benefitsImage
Image
So, at least in this propensity score- or age-matched data, there's no reason to chalk the benefit up to the weight loss effects.

This is a hint though, not definitive. Another hint is that benefits were observed in short trials, meaning likely before significant weight loss.
We can be doubly certain about that last hint because diabetics tend to lose less weight than non-diabetics, and all of the observed benefit has so far been observed in diabetic cohorts, not non-diabetic ones (though those directionally show benefits).

Anyway, trials needed!
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20
El Salvador is now a safe country

The reason why should teach us something about commitment

The government there has previously attempted crackdowns twice in the form of mano dura—hard hand—, but they failed because they didn't hit criminals hard enough

Then Bukele really didImage
In fact, previous attempts backfired compared to periods in which the government made truces with the gangs.

The government cracking down a little bit actually appeared to make gangs angrier!

You'd have been in your right to conclude 'tough on crime fails', but you'd be wrong.
You have to *actually* enforce the law or policy won't work. Same story with three-strike laws, or any other measure

Incidentally, when did the gang problems begin for El Salvador? When the U.S. exported gang members to it

This was bad for El Salvador:

Read 5 tweets
Nov 18
Diets that restrict carbohydrate consumption lead to improved blood sugar and insulin levels, as well as reduced insulin resistance.

Additionally, they're good or neutral for the liver and kidneys, and they don't affect the metabolic rate. Image
Carbohydrate isn't the only thing that affects glycemic parameters.

So does fat!

So, for example, if you replace 5% of dietary calories from saturated fat with PUFA, that somewhat improves fasting glucose levels (shown), and directionally improves fasting insulin: Image
Dietary composition may not be useful for improving the rate of weight loss ceteris paribus, but it can definitely make it easier given what else it changes.

Those non-metabolism details may be why so many people find low-carb diets so easy!

Read 4 tweets

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