🧵We are entering a period of intense debate about what the end state in #Ukraine should be, what kind of peace deal can/cannot be negotiated by the incoming US administration, and what long-term prospects there might be for negotiating a modus vivendi with Putin's Russia. 1/9
BLUF: I don't believe there is a deal Putin will accept that wouldn't be tantamount to his victory. For 3 years the West offered no strategy beyond escalation management. Until real setbacks make him realize he can't win at an acceptable cost to his power base, he won't stop. 2/9
Today Putin might at best agree to a breather (peredishka) to rearm and go at it again to destroy or subjugate independent #Ukraine. It's not (as some believe) about Putin per se, nor that once he passes from the scene, his successor(s) will want to negotiate in good faith. 3/9
The problem of Russia we confront today-what I called elsewhere the "Russian question"-is both historical and systemic. Until Western leaders understand this, we have no realistic prospect of crafting a workable strategy to deal with Russia, either today or in the future. 4/9
Russia is not a nation-state; it's an empire. To put it differently, it's a population consisting of a multitude of nationalities governed by a centrally run repressive state. Top-down pressure is the mode of governance in Russia and expansionism is that state's raison d'être.5/9
Because a unified Russian nation doesn't exist, there is no chance for democracy or any polyarchic system for that matter to take root. The state comprises over 80 sub-entities, including 21 non-Slavic autonomous republics. Ethnic Russians-though the majority-are in decline. 6/9
Western political leaders tend to mirror-image Russia based on our own experience of national consolidation giving rise to democratic government. Our analysts-many who neither speak Russian nor know Russian culture and only see its history as Moscow tells it-often do likewise.7/9
The Russian Federation is a top-down imperialist power, with Putin and his oligarchs sitting astride of the Eurasian land mass of 11 time zones. As of today, the systemic nature of this empire offers no path forward for the West to reach a lasting modus vivendi with Moscow. 8/9
So, in our Russia policy the West must prioritize deterrence and, should it fail, defense. We need our European @NATO allies to rearm at speed and scale. We urgently need political leaders across the West to recognize the reality of what Russia is, not what we wish it to be. 9/9
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