Thread by @emilkastehelmi

During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea.

These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/

In the most recent case, cargo ship Eagle S damaged the Estlink-2 cable. The investigation has just begun, so officially Finland isn’t blaming anyone. However, there’s a recurring pattern and practically only one country can be behind it - Russia. 2/

Nothing happens randomly. Before the current events, Russia has used careful consideration in launching a series of attacks against the critical infrastructure of Finland and other Nato countries in the Baltic Sea region. Russia is deliberately seeking to increase hostilities. 3/

The latest sabotage operation was likely aimed at Estonia, which is soon disconnecting itself from the Russian electricity grid together with Latvia & Lithuania. Singular damaged cables don’t cause a crisis yet, but we’ve likely only seen the beginning, the testing phase. 4/

The current situation can also be described as the gray phase. The enemy is conducting sabotage, disinformation and hybrid operations, which can be followed with more significant diplomatic and even military pressure. I doubt Russia has planned to stop their actions yet. 5/

Currently, operations are carried out through various covert arrangements, although it’s not unclear to anyone whose interests lie behind them. Russia is actively testing how the politicians and authorities in the targeted areas react to sabotage and various other operations. 4/

The problem with the West is that countries prefer to hesitate, when clear and determined force would be needed. A show of force is the only thing Russia understands. Any display of weakness encourages Russia to continue and strike harder, as has happened throughout the year. 5/

Metaphorically, Russia stabs soft societies with a bayonet until it meets steel. Finland has endured numerous hostile operations over the past year, such as sabotage, weaponization of migrants and cyber attacks. Now some steel has been finally shown with a strong response. 6/

During the past week, police, the Finnish Coast Guard and the Finnish Defence Forces with other authorities have participated in seizing the ship, investigating the situation and patrolling the sea. No other countries in the area have previously responded like this. 7/

It’s unclear if Russia anticipated such actions. For example in the case of Yi Peng 3, which was suspected of damaging data cables in the waters between Denmark and Sweden, it took weeks for Swedish authorities to board the ship, and it was allowed to continue its journey. 8/

While the West acts on a strictly legal basis, Russia sees these laws and international treaties as exploitable loopholes. This forces the authorities to heighten readiness, and preventing severe hostile activity can be politically difficult and cause internal turmoil. 9/

It is necessary to find measures that will significantly raise Russia's threshold for continuing similar operations in the future. If sufficiently effective means are not found, problems will continue to arise at an accelerating rate. Russia will not stop until it is stopped. 10/

Russia hasn’t tested Nato countries with direct military operations yet – the most damage has been done by utilizing other measures. However, we cannot rule out a scenario in which Russia tries to use military force against certain Nato countries, such as Finland or Estonia. 10/

Things can get worse. Both alliances and individual countries must set limits, show strength and set examples of strong countermeasures. Any other approach will encourage escalation and pose serious security and economic risks for the entire Baltic Sea region. 12/12