Thread by @ScottKacsmar

Thread: How Bills Fans Will Stop at Nothing to Get Josh Allen His Charity MVP

No fanbase has been more hypocritical this season than the Bills. Let's count some of the ways based on the arguments I've seen for 3 months.

1. INTs/TOs matter again.

They never did when Josh had too many, but now that he's had a career-low INT%, they suddenly care about picks and turnovers, plays that damage stats like EPA/QBR. So it's a big boost for Allen that he's low in these plays for a change.

They started this early because Allen didn't throw a pick for awhile as Mahomes had plenty. But after Mahomes' picks went down they've continued it with Lamar, who has fewer INTs, and even fewer that were his fault.

But now they've moved to fumbles even though Allen's had better pass pro that would help combat things like strip-sacks.

It's also very impressive that Allen's teammates have lost 0 fumbles in 16 games. He has all 8 of his team's TOs.

2. YAC doesn't matter anymore.

For years, Bills fans have argued against Mahomes for playing in a YAC-heavier offense. But in 2024, Allen ranks 3rd in YAC/Comp. while Mahomes is 7th. Allen's enjoyed some of the biggest YAC TDs of his career.

Against the Rams, Allen had two TDs with 45+ YAC on throws that weren't longer than 5 yards. He's the only QB since 2018 to have two such plays in one game.

But this no longer matters.

Even with Allen getting career best protection, running back support and YAC, his YPA (7.7) is firmly between his two highest seasons in 2020 (7.9) and 2022 (7.6). His passing success rate (49.1%) is the 5th highest of his career.

BUF is 7th on 3rd down, their lowest season since 2019.

It's not the best season of his career.

3. Only Allen wins big games as long as we control the narrative of what's a big game.

A huge part of the MVP argument for Allen is that he has wins over the Lions and Chiefs, ending long winning streaks for both potential No. 1 seeds.

But should those two games outweigh the big picture where Allen is 2-3 vs. playoff teams in 2024? Buffalo's had one of the easier schedules, and their division was such a joke that they clinched it in the beginning of December.

Meanwhile, Mahomes and Lamar can tie the NFL record with 7 wins vs. playoff teams. Lamar is 7-3 vs. playoff teams this year. It could be 8-3 if the Bengals get in over Denver, a new record.

While Bills fans were correct to dog Lamar for his 2023 MVP win, they missed the fact that BAL played 14 winning teams and beat 10 of them, easily a single-season record. Lamar had big games against teams like the Lions, 49ers, Dolphins, etc. Ravens are playing a tougher schedule again this year.

Why should a 2-3 record outweigh ta 7-3 record? Why are we pretending that playing in Arrowhead against a healthier KC team in Week 1 is the same as hosting them in midseason without Rice, Pacheco, Jaylen Watson, etc.?

Meanwhile, in past years, they argued for Allen as MVP favorite after early-season wins in KC over Mahomes n 2021 and 2022.

I guess head-to-head means nothing now because Allen didn't even show up in Baltimore this year in a 35-10 loss. Then he shit the bed in Houston in another loss where his 3 straight incompletions (finished 9/30) from inside his own 5 helped Houston set up a GW FG.

But they'll also dog Lamar for losing to bad teams like the Raiders and Browns even though the defense was more responsible for those losses in the 4Q. Lamar was much better in those games than Allen was in BAL/HOU.

Yet they'll still argue Allen should have won MVP in 2023 too despite losing 5 games to non-playoff teams, including QBs like Zach Wilson and Mac Jones. Where's the consistency?

I don't know how going 2-3 vs. playoff teams beats going 7-3 or 8-3. I guess it does if you pretend only two teams matter this season, which isn't the case, and Minnesota could still upend Detroit as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Teammates not fumbling, more YAC than ever, better protection than ever, and an easier schedule/division to boot? This is the guy who is "doing more with less" while four teams currently have a better or equal record than Buffalo despite playing tougher schedules?

I haven't even reached the field position yet.

4. All TDs are equal unless they count as Josh Allen records.

For some hypocrisy going on my TL today, look no further than Bills fans trying to simultaneously argue that all TDs are worth 6 points and count just the same while pointing to Allen's "records" for things like games with X passing and Y rushing touchdowns. Throw in a receiving TD on a lateral that was a fluke play started by a terrible Allen throw against the 49ers, and you have records that are nothing more than style of play. No actual substance to it.

But I thought a TD was just a TD? Why should I be giving more credit to a guy for getting pushed into the end zone on a play with a baseline success rate of 80%? It's probably higher for the Tush Push, a play from the Eagles that's ruined my favorite short-yardage play, and I think the Bills fell in love with it after playing Philly last year in an overtime game as they've leaned on Allen more than ever for rushing TDs since the 2H of 2023.

Then when you try to point out things like QB sneak TDs (Allen has 6 from the 1-yard line to help him get to 40 TDs again), they hit you with the argument that all TDs are equal and he's the driving force to get them down there.

Are you implying Jared Goff isn't the driving force to get TDs for Montgomery and Gibbs too? Lamar isn't doing it a lot for BAL with his running and passing? Any top QB worth his reputation isn't carrying the majority of the offense?

Just the Buffalo guy who is averaging 233.2 passing YPG? That's the 5th-highest season of his career and ranks 15th in 2024, btw.

To paraphrase James Carville, it's the field position, stupid.

The Bills have more points and less yards not because they're super efficient than everyone. They dominate field position and have less yards to travel for scores.

Average TD drive length in 2024
Longest - Ravens (71.9 yards, 59 drives)
7th Shortest - Bills (63.1 yards, 60 drives)

Imagine that. The Bills have started 13 TD drives inside the 50 compared to 4 for Baltimore. BUF just had 3 TD drives yesterday vs. NYJ that were 37, 38 and 15 yards. In that big win against Detroit, they got up to48 points because they had TDs of 26 and 5 yards late in the game with the Lions trying to come back.

What a slap in the face to pretend like Allen is the only QB who is driving his offense in position for short TD runs (by himself or otherwise). That's just illogical for any season.

But Allen and Hurts do stand alone when it comes to excess opportunities for short rushing TDs at the QB position. That's a fact.

If you accept the MVP race is close, this context should matter. If not, then you wanted Allen to win it all along no matter what, and the same is true for last year when he finished a distant 5th place.

But they've also changed that narrative this year to make it sound like he was robbed by Lamar in a close race. He was 5th. Behind Purdy even.

I could point to more things like the way Allen is being elevated by his backs in the receiving game and hasn't even helped Shakir and Kincaid to better numbers this year compared to 2023, but this is good enough for now.

I'm not a Lamar/BAL fan at all. I was getting death threats in DMs this time a year ago for saying Lamar was a default MVP and would go down as one of the worst seasons to win it.

Why would I want him to win a 3rd MVP? But I can't help it if his season is the most deserving in the end. He's got a better case than he did in 2019 and 2023.

People have to let 2023 go. It has no precedent this year, it was one of the worst races ever, and Lamar was the last man standing. The default choice. If these players had their 2024 season in 2023, they should have won the award over 2023 Lamar:

Mahomes
Allen
2024 Lamar
Daniels
Goff
Darnold
Saquon
Baker
Burrow (if he makes POs)

A lot of candidates this year, and I don't think Allen has the best case and won't vote for him to win it.

I certainly feel even less compelled to vote for him when I read the reasoning behind why he should win it on here from Bills fans.

This isn't a lifetime achievement award.

This isn't his best or even most deserving season as 2020 had a better case.

This is charity and homerism trying to force an MVP on someone, and I just call it like I see it and vote with my head.

If you don't like it, tough shit.