Michael Green Profile picture
Dec 31, 2024 10 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/n It's amazing to see the "capitalists" wake up to the potential for "taxes on people other than us"

"Shrink the government" to pay for lowering taxes on capital while raising taxes on consumption IS a solution to high debt. It's also a solution for a major contraction in global income.
2/n Marc Andreessen is past his, "I'm really rich and therefore read something other than computer manuals" exploration of philosophy and into his "Ooh... history" phase
3/n Elon suddenly highlighting that taxes are not a source of "return on citizenship" but rather a legal obligation that stems FROM citizenship (or for access to a state's citizens, eg tariffs)
4/n Tax increases and fiscal contraction, especially in benefits for the poor with a very high propensity to spend, are coming. All of this fits with Trump warning of 1929 for totally unrelated reasons.
5/n While I agree it is necessary to rein in benefit spending and refocus on high productivity potential (ie ON KIDS & INFRASTRUCTURE, NOT BOOMERS), I do not agree that lowering corporate and capital gains taxes (especially while preserving breaks like Carried Interest for PE and VC) is the right path
6/n While I do NOT think Trump is intentionally fascist in the modern context, the term "fascism" originates from the Latin word fasces, a bundle of rods bound together, symbolizing strength through unity. It was adopted by Benito Mussolini’s regime in Italy (1922–1943) as a symbol of the fascist state. (ChatGPT)
7/n Far more compelling is the "ends justify the means" belief of nearly all elites (Democrat & Republican) that was most ineloquently expressed by George Bush in 2008: "I had to abandon free market principles in order to save the free market system."
8/n We do not currently have a "free market" (nor do they ever exist -- all markets are created in the context of the state rules), we have a creeping "Economic Corporatism":

Economic Corporatism
*A state-controlled economy that aligns businesses, labor, and government in a hierarchical structure.
*Suppression of class conflict through government control rather than free-market capitalism or socialism.
9/n And this system has been reinforced by our mandated (liability protected) retirement investments in the equity of "approved" (by a committee and then politicians) indices. Stay quiet, or the market might fall and your retirement evaporate.

Many investment banks have been publishing "Republican Policy" vs "Democratic Policy." These are simply indices that assume "Whatever the other party wants, I'm against" and the correlations of Long vs Long has fallen while Long vs Short has remained near 100%Image
10/10 This is a recipe for further division not between Dems and Reps, but between "haves" and "have nots" -- with the operative "have" being political connections bought by money and influence. Wonder why corporate leaders are falling in line (or being replaced)?

There are precedents, unfortunately ineteconomics.org/research/resea…

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More from @profplum99

Dec 9, 2024
1/n So apparently we're doing this again... @EricBalchunas @JSeyff @psarofagis @business @TheTerminal Image
2/n It's one thing to have your fundamental errors pointed out (repeatedly) and adjust. It's another to double down. You have to ask, "What's the agenda?" at some point
3/n So let's evaluate their headline analysis -- "the most passively owned stocks have underperformed" (including the claim that the R2000 is "more passively owned). It relies on this type of analysis: Image
Read 11 tweets
Nov 5, 2024
1/n People wonder why I say "Vanguard is a cult"

Well, I'll tell you...
1) Vanguard refuses to speak to outsiders. Numerous Vanguard employees have proposed I visit the Vanguard campus and speak to their teams and management forbids it.
2/n
2) Various Vanguard propaganda machines like @bogleheads exist. There are several pages devoted to dismissing my podcasts. Feel free to review: Image
3/n
3) Polite rebuttals are typically along these lines (there are many impolite ones -- enjoy). These are simply restatements of Grossman-Stiglitz, which I directly address in my work. G-S is the "wisdom of the crowds" and works great if everyone gets one vote. Except passive lumps a huge number of voters into one pool with one vote. x.com/profplum99/sta…Image
Read 5 tweets
Apr 19, 2024
1/n While I'm actually in agreement with Dave that there is not an "intentional" fixing of data, I'm with my "smarter Econ" friends who are asserting "something is wrotten" in the published data.
2/n The state level data is subject to interpretation due to the framing of the question, "Last week, did you do any unpaid work in for (either) pay (or profit)?"Image
3/n Unsurprisingly, the emergence of the gig economy seems to have played a role in reducing the unemployment rate. Prior to 2009, if you lost your job you'd likely file for unemployment AND likely try to find a cash job (bartender, babysitter, etc) to supplement your reduced income WHILE you searched for a job. The introduction of 1099K in 2012 made that more difficult. Revisions in 2021 to reporting levels made it impossible. Now you're either employed OR unemployed. The gray area in between is increasingly rare.
Read 8 tweets
Oct 18, 2023
1/n Agree this is not CRAZY. But it’s also not “fundamental”… US CDS trading wide of France (47 vs 28) a good example of issue. France Debt/GDP not meaningfully different and deteriorating at same pace.
2/n US Debt/GDP vs France Debt/GDP vs CDS
Image
Image
3/n The selloff in bonds is not a “US issue”… it’s a global phenomenon. France interest costs rising more rapidly than US. And while US unfunded liabilities, eg Soxial Security/Medicare coming on is an issue, these have automatic stabilizers. Reminder, benefits get cut automatically in US
Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 14, 2023
1/nAlways flattered when @radigancarter takes the time to write on my thoughts. With that said, this is a very important “error”: “wise enough to understand that smart financial decisions, like most good long-term decisions, means I need to do the opposite of my initial emotional reaction to events that surround me.”
2/n Emotional events, like the GFC, represent opportunity in HINDSIGHT. If you define events by their ex-post success, they always appear “smart.” In the heat of the moment, the “smart” move may not be the “after the fact” smart move
3/n @radigancarter, imagine you’re in an enemy ambush and fighting for your life. Out of the corner of your eye, you see a pile of gold bricks. Do you stop and collect them? They hinder your chance of survival. A gravestone that reads, “Grasped for the gold” is still a gravestone
Read 4 tweets
Sep 25, 2023
1/n It's always a bit sad to see posts like this proclaiming the low-end household is "in great shape." One, talk to them. They're not. Two, the analysis is just wrong. Let's dig in.
2/n The Fed data is misleading when aggregated. Several will proclaim, "it's real estate" or "of course, stock markets are higher." But neither is really the driver here. Remember in the bottom 50% of households by WEALTH, home ownership is low and few own stocks. Image
3/n And so while it turns out that the Bottom 50%ile has indeed seen the value of its real estate rise, and this does account for the majority of the gain, this is small comfort to the 2/3rds of this cohort, mostly young, who do not own homes. In fact, as shown above "Liquid"
Read 7 tweets

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