Lakshya Jain Profile picture
Dec 31, 2024 16 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Okay. So I've wanted to articulate this for a while, but never really knew how.

But I'm personally absolutely, completely disgusted with the Democratic Party — *my* party, in many ways — and not because of the party moving "too far left/right". Let me explain.🧵
Everything I write here is in my personal capacity. And this is not a giant thread on "why I left the Democratic Party". I'm not doing that, because I agree with Democrats significantly more than I do with the GOP, and I vote for the side I agree with more.

But I'm still angry.
I'm tired of the incessant deference to unions *at the cost of progress* (see: the Jones Act and Puerto Rico). And I'm tired of programs we forget are a means to an end, rather than the end itself (CA HSR is a great example. Give us results, don't point to "jobs created"!).
It's the "process over results" attitude that I'm just sick and tired of. So many programs are created with immense goodwill and money to be put into good things. But when the time comes to build, *we just can't*, because paperwork and process is like crack cocaine to Democrats.
And we're told "it's fine". But it's really not. Government should exist to work for people, not work for itself. If you have a program that has poured $40M into rural broadband with no results, you can rationalize it in any way you want, but it's a massive failure at the end.
Mostly, I'm tired of being promised things that the party has no intention of living up to. It goes beyond policies — we were promised that Biden was fine, and we'd see it at the debate.

Really? What the fuck was that?

"Oh, it was a bad night."

The next 3 weeks were bad too!
What about Donald Trump and January 6th? Well, Biden's own Justice Department slow-walked so much of the prosecution out of a deference to norms to a guy they say tried to overthrow the govt.

They got no help from the legal system. But their own actions did them no favors either
It's this constant prioritization of process over policy, of process over results, and of "defending our institutions" that I'm sick and tired of. If these are our institutions, can you blame voters for asking: what the fuck is the point?
I don't want our institutions to just hold, I want them to *work*.

It's not okay for CVS and Target to lock everything up in SF. It's not okay for people to be afraid of taking the BART at 11 PM. It's okay for people to want institutions to play a role in *actually fixing them*.
I continue to vote for Democrats, and I think I'll do that for the foreseeable future — at the end, I don't believe in withholding votes because one side is going to win, and I'd rather the side I agree with more win. So that's the Democrats.

But I still criticize them a lot.
Why? The Affordable Care Act, while imperfect, is massive. Social Security is a boon to seniors and helps them live decently. Medicaid/Medicare is an immensely valuable program. Trump and J6 cross a line for me. And I just don't think tearing down institutions fixes things.
But I'm also tired. I'm tired of treating institutions like some incredible holy grail that must be championed and above criticism. This isn't about a left/right axis for me — I'm just tired of being told that things are all fine when they're obviously not.
I'm not open to overtures about "why I left the Left" or whatever. I'm a Democrat.

"Sheep", "NPC", whatever — save it. The right isn't going to have me, and I don't want them (I was born here but 90% of online MAGA still wants to deport me, lol).

I just want things to work.
@the_transit_guy And look, here's the thing: highways may suck for urban planning, but highways *work* and so the average American isn't going to complain about more funding for something they use (and have to use) every day. It is what it is.
@the_transit_guy @flaminhottweets If your choice is to fund it into irrelevance, that's ok, but there are real political and policy costs associated with keeping it — costs that arguably significantly outweigh the ones associated with letting it go.
This ended up getting more attention than I imagined. This isn't really electoral advice for Democrats. It's just my own frustrations.

It's not a diagnosis of why they lost, and they don't technically *need* to change much to win 2026, but that doesn't mean I like what exists.

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More from @lxeagle17

Jan 29
As part of our polling, I track attitudes across platforms (and have done so since the start). From our latest poll...

Trump approval:
X: 55/45 (+10)
Everyone else: 38/61 (-23)

ICE favorables:
X: 45 fav/53 unfav (-8)
Everyone else: 33/63 (-30)
Trump approval by news platform in January:

X: 55/45 (+10)
TikTok: 34/63 (-29)
Facebook: 45/53 (-8)
YouTube: 43/56 (-13)
Instagram: 39/60 (-21)
Newspapers/news sites: 33/67 (-34)
ICE favorables by news platform in January:

X: 45/53 (-8)
TikTok: 24/72 (-48)
Facebook: 39/56 (-17)
YouTube: 35/63 (-28)
Instagram: 29/68 (-39)
Newspapers/news sites: 28/71 (-43)
All voters: 35/61 (-26)

So if you're wondering whether this place feels like a bubble...
Read 7 tweets
Dec 17, 2025
Extremely funny watching people react to this AOC tweet by saying the poll is biased towards making progressives look good at the expense of moderates when the pollster is *literally me*.
My interpretation — based on the fact that Newsom also outran congressional Dems by a similar amount in our last poll — is that:

1) Vance is weak.
2) AOC/Newsom are very similar electorally but with slightly different coalitions. Newsom's better with whites, AOC with Latinos.
Newsom leads Vance by 7 (53.47 to 46.53, lol — rounding at the edges).

In that same poll, Dems led 52.9-47.1. The gap between Newsom and congressional Dems is basically ~identical to the gap between AOC and congressional Dems. Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20, 2025
I had a strong prior that the COVID response had tarnished the Democratic brand, and that it was doing lasting damage to them.

But our poll suggests, again, that what drives elite discourse aren't necessarily the same things that voters cared about.

theargumentmag.com/p/the-covid-po…
You've heard that line about 40% of America loving Trump no matter what and being his strongest soldiers on everything, right?

Just 13% of people strongly approve of how Trump handled COVID-19. (Voters have actual minds of their own.) Image
What do they think about the school closures?

It's certainly complicated, but mostly, they think it was quite understandable and necessary, even after all the time that's passed. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 16, 2025
We did the math and the net effect of the Supreme Court nerfing the Voting Rights Act, after all the other gerrymandering, is likely that the maps take a consistent, pro-Republican bias roughly matching 2018’s — breakable, but it would be tough.

theargumentmag.com/p/is-the-supre…
It’s important to be clear about what would and wouldn’t happen. The maps do not give Republicans a permanent majority. They do make it very hard for Democrats to win the chamber (especially in presidential years). The net effect would probably be a return to 2018’s House bias. Image
We chose to game out one of the more aggressive scenarios: Republicans gain 11 seats (+ NC-01, which they may get anyway) post-VRA, along with all the other mid-cycle redistricting, and then Dems retaliate in IL/CA.

NY is tougher legally but could drag it down to D+4.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 11, 2025
Bookmark it because it will probably blow up in my face: From polling and advertising data, neither Virginia nor New Jersey are tracking to be GOP wins and I remain baffled by the amount of people on X who think Republicans are within striking distance (~3 points) in either.
- The national generic ballot is D+3 right now, which is a 5 point shift left from 2024.
- Both states were Harris +6 in 2024.
- Democrats generally tend to have a turnout advantage in off-year elections.
- Democrats are leading polls.
- Democrats have big spending edges.

????
Republicans could obviously win the Virginia *ATTORNEY GENERAL* race, but that is because Jay Jones has dug himself a huge hole and is on track to monumentally underperform. Sears is not on the verge of beating Spanberger right now.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 5, 2025
If you want a quick temperature check on how the political realities of this are unfolding in his administration, consider that Elon Musk has said absolutely nothing on Trump's signature policy (the tariffs) today, despite usually being Trump's #1 defender.
Bessent is reportedly looking for a way out, Tillis and *French Hill* are suddenly expressing openness to congressional laws on tariffs, and Republicans mostly seem shell-shocked. Another day or two of drops and you might see things shift, because this is a self-inflicted wound.
Basic reason is this: it seems callous to say, but while not everyone cares about transgender children, not everyone cares about immigrants, and not everyone cares about social justice, *everyone* cares about money. Recessions and depressions cripple every administration.
Read 7 tweets

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