Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 31, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Gosh,

This is such a logistical admission against interest by the Russian VKS I don't know where to begin.

We see here a single Russian forklift operator moving a FAB-500 bomb with _chains_ wrapped around forklift tines at the 12-16 sec mark

A USAF safety NCO's head

1/
...would explode seeing the procedure used.

Four men build the UMPK kit on the loaded bomb.

The packaging for the FAB-500 is obviously made to be _rolled_on_the_ground_ by a mobik work gang or stacked in a gondola car of a Russian train by a crane.

2/
The Russians can and do use tactical truck drawn trailers to move FAB-500 bombs, but didn't in the previous video's case.

3/
This video is of the 389th Fighter Generation Squadron loading an inert GBU-38s on an F-15E Strike Eagle assigned to the 366th Fighter Wing.

Please carefully notice the bomb loading truck with lift uses two people to very carefully move and load...

4/
...the GBU-38.

This video is of a 2000 lb JDAM being loaded onto a B-52.

The bomb is moved from a special bomb trailer on a loading truck and onto the hard point by a three person crew.

Yes, material handling equipment means you can use women.

5/
In contrast to the UMPK kit that is assembled after a bomb is loaded on an Su-34.

This IDF video demonstrates that small assembly line every airbase with JDAM kits has and how they are moved...

6/
...with a chained fixture on the forklift tines, whose chains are in turn attached to the JDAM's lugs.

Not only would the USAF Safety NCO approve, the off-plane JDAM assembly line has a great deal less process variability.

7/ Image
This assembly difference between the JDAM kit & UMPK kit alone likely accounts for many of the UMPK kit failures in combat.



8/
Given all the additional work required installing a UMPK kit on a loaded bomb, with the fueled and waiting Su-34 on the flight line.

Proper fusing of the FAB (whatever #) bomb after all that additional work might be missed or done improperly.

9/
Nor does fuzing issues seem to be the only problem with the UMPK kits in terms of performance.

There is simply too much ill thought out animal labor involved in UMPK kit's operational use to be as consistent a performer as a JDAM.

10/10
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More from @TrentTelenko

Dec 31, 2024
Ukraine's use of boat-drones to shoot down a Russian crewed helicopter with a R-73 missile is as historically significant as Israeli destroyer Eilat (ex HMS Zealous) with a Styx missile by Egypt. Image
The era of the armed naval helicopter hunting submarines, small boats and spotting/screening for naval surface warships may be coming to a close.

2/ Image
Small boat-drones as platforms for 20 km(+) range fiber optic guided FPV drones will become huge threat to merchant traffic in the littorals and will bedevil escorting warships denied low altitude helicopter cover.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Dec 24, 2024
The defence-blog -dot- com website reported a very important observation on the production quality of current Russian Shahed production.

It's individual quality is declining, _Hard_.

1/
Russian End Run Production 🧵 Image
From the article:

“The Russians have adapted these drones to their needs, but due to a lack of components and efforts to reduce costs, their quality has declined,” Kulchytsky explained.

Earlier iterations of Shahed drones contained numerous foreign-made components,
2/
...including Japanese-manufactured bearings and precision-built servo drive rods.

However, recent versions have shown a transition to simplified bearings and direct rod assemblies, indicating a shortage of high-quality components."
3/
Read 14 tweets
Dec 22, 2024
Sadly, this F-18 shoot down isn't a surprise.

The US Navy, as an institution, had a really horrid record of "friendly fire" in WW2, to include shooting down a FM-2 Wildcat fighter coming of the catapult of the CVE USS Tulagi in Kerama Retto on 6 Apr 1945.

1/
I've done threads on X highlighting this historical US Navy friendly fire institutional dysfunction.

2/
Another FM-2 Wildcat, damaged in the same Kerama Retto engagement resulting in the USS Tulagi's FM-2 getting shot down, was in turn blown out of the sky by panicked USN gunners over Kadena airfield causing massive damage to fighter fuel logistics & strafing Army troops ashore.
3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 21, 2024
Congress being held accountable for stealth legislation & pork barrel spending _BEFORE THE VOTE IS CAST_ is my most unexpected and welcomed result of Artificial Intelligence large language models (LLM) in 2024.

AI vs Lobbyists🧵
1/
It would take eight speed reading lawyers with eidetic memories 16 to 24 man hours to parse a 1000 page piece of legislation.

Specialty lawyers charging hundred of dollars an hour working for K-Street lobbyists.

2/
Now any competent person can feed huge pieces of legislation to Grok, or other LLM, for nearly no cost and generate a similar work product in minutes to post to social media.

K-Street lobbyists in DC, & Congressmen/Senators sucking up their cash, just had their world burn.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Dec 17, 2024
I've been involved with three US Army FMTV reset programs.

So this newest report from Ukraine's Defense Express on the the repairability problems with Russian AFV's out of their reserves is so much fun to share with you all.

1/ Image
Defense Express pulled an article from the No. 10 issue of the Russian magazine "Material and Technical Support" on how horrid the vehicles coming out of reserve are plus problems with battle damaged reserve vehicles.

2/
en.defence-ua.com/analysis/repai…
The 2nd paragraph starts with this:

"The central takeaway from this publication is that the actual repairability of Russian tanks is 3-5 times lower than what is claimed in official manuals. This discrepancy has extended repair times for equipment by at least 15-20%."

3/
Read 12 tweets
Dec 16, 2024
Ukraine’s claims to have produced 100 Peklo (Hell) cruise missiles over the past three months.

This works out to about 1.1 Peklo a day, but manufacturing production lines don't work like that.

Peklo Manufacturing 🧵

1/
pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
The infographic figure below is a typical commercial production line curve.

Ukraine's stated production and use of the Peklo (Hell) cruise missile marks it as being on the 'start of production to market entry' ramp up part of the curve below.

2/ Image
Over two dozen Peklo were shown in this public unveiling by Ukraine, which is over 1/4 of the stated production to date.

How many were pre-production prototypes or low rate initial pilot production models isn't knowable.
3/
Read 12 tweets

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