Thread by @sambendett

1/ QUICK THREAD: Russian mil bloggers on a Ukrainian USV destroying a Rus helicopter in the Black Sea (below), trying to come up with proposals on dealing with such threats: "...the issue of using anti-aircraft missile launchers (on USVs) was only a matter of time."

https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1873991909007577228

2/ "This is a consequence of the proven effectiveness of Rus forces intercepting USVs with helicopters. While they were just kamikaze USVs, (our tactic) was extremely effective and allowed us to eliminate the USVs (let's keep quiet about why they (Rus MOD) didn't start doing this back in 2022, because the words that come to mind are mostly obscene)."

3/ "But the helicopter interception of USVs over the Black Sea provided us with six months of quiet. But sooner or later we had to be ready for the enemy's next move, they did not particularly hide their methods of fighting helicopters. And therefore, it is necessary..."

4/ "...to move on to intercepting USVs with the help of FPV drones or ATGMs, which can easily operate beyond the reach of MANPADS and ersatz anti-aircraft guns from Air-to-Air missiles. Plus, it is necessary to install on-board defenses on our helicopters, like on the Ka-52."

5/ "And further, it is worth considering that the Ukrainians are preparing their next step, like the use of AIM-120 missiles from a launcher on a USV, which, in fact, will be able to operate with a radar homing head at a fairly significant range."

6/ "To do this, it is necessary to think through an active jamming system in advance - fortunately, it is impossible to place a powerful radar on a USV. And in general, in this case, the enemy gives us a lesson in how it is possible, without an actual fleet, to cause damage and to attack the shore."

7/ "In this regard, a big question is, why is there no active USV use, or experience development on our part? Yes, we don't really need our own USVs in the kamikaze variant, since Ukr. have no targets to attack - but against coastal objects, against enemy aircraft near the coast..."

8/ "...nothing prevents us from making reusable USVs (this allows us to reduce the problem re. the lack of our own communications, as today, there is still a need to install the expensive Kometa system as an alternative to Starlink). On board of these USVs..."

9/ "...we can place ATGMs, MANPADS, FPV drones, we can strike at the Ukrainian Navy bases, at their air defense missile systems at the moment when our Kalibr missiles attack - all their hidden positions are revealed and we can immediately strike them with FPVs equipped with thermal imagers..."

10/ "... we can mine the exits from the harbor, and cover the landing of sabotage and reconnaissance groups. The latter is generally an excellent opportunity to pull back a large number of troops to protect the coastline. At the same time, the length of the coast is quite significant, there are many convenient places..."

11/ "...for landings where the population is very loyal to us. That is, we can make caches for the underground, carry out sabotage, and force the Ukrainian Armed Forces to withdraw several brigades from the front."

12/ "The Russian fleet obviously needs a revival of an aggressive offensive spirit, the ability to act with fire and ingenuity. After all, it is impossible to achieve victory at sea while hiding behind booms in bays. Moreover, it is necessary to obtain the most modern, extremely necessary experience for our fleet, to draw the right conclusions and adjust naval development."

13/ MORE: other Russian military bloggers are pessimistic they will find an antidote to the Ukrainian USVs for the foreseeable future: "...the situation in the Black Sea has changed dramatically in a single day, and not in our favor." t.me/fighter_bomber…

14/ "Now we can essentially destroy USVs only during the day, in good weather, using jet aircraft and assault aviation. And not just good weather, but "very good weather" with fewer clouds. Perhaps we will try to use Ka-52s helos, but only until the first losses."

15/ "At the moment, Rus surface fleet is not able to protect itself from USVs on the open sea. With varying success, it can protect itself in bays and at bases. So once we lose the helicopter advantage, we (and essentially no one) cannot ensure the safety of civilian shipping at sea."

16/ "There are already USVs (out there) in the air defense version with missiles and automatic machine gun turrets. We can expect the appearance of USVs carrying drones, electronic warfare systems and MLRS missiles."

17/ "Due to USV's speed and maneuverability, it is almost impossible to hit it with a drone, or with quadcopter munition drops or ATGMs. And where to launch them from? It doesn’t really work from a helicopter - it gets blown away by the air flow from the propeller."

18/ This particular point is interesting given that the Russian Navy is reportedly training to launch FPV drones from a helicopter- see this video:

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1840416897306677313

19/ "Plus, helicopters are now being shot down. Launch FPVs from the shore - it won’t fly far. From a ship? Well, maybe only from a ship that is near the shore. And given the inevitable appearance of USVs in the EW version, if by some miracle the FPV or any drones..."

20/ "...show some effectiveness, then things will get hot very fast. Today, we can state that the "mosquito fleet" strategy has completely defeated the strategy of a large fleet in the Black Sea."

21/ "This likely (wont be the same) on the open ocean yet, but it's just a matter of a couple of years. It's obvious that the same thing will happen there. And underwater drones will be used as soon as the issue of their remote control under water is resolved."

22/ "The most interesting thing is that this tactic was predicted in Russia and some military personnel even tried to push through and develop it long before the Ukraine invasion. But it was not possible to (go against the grain then). Perhaps the problem with USVs..."

23/ "...will be temporarily solved when we learn to jam the USV control frequencies, maybe Starlink or other communication satellites. But in three years of this war, neither side has been able to do this effectively."

24/ "We can talk about attack drones with anti-USV weapons, but today no one has them. Only in theory. So the battle at sea has moved to a new level. And we (Russians), once we lose the helicopter advantage, "suddenly" move into the position of catching up to the Ukrainians".

25/ AND MORE - other Rus bloggers are also pessimistic: "On the one hand, missiles have been on the USVs for more than half a year, and back in May we wrote that the effectiveness would be low, but not zero. On the other hand, I know at least a dozen USV projects in Russia..." t.me/UAVDEV/7752

26/ "Of these, 6 are serious projects, with 2 fully ready for combat, and one has already visited Odessa. What I don't know is who oversees this in the Russian Navy? If with FPV drones the state interfered and we have the Sudoplatov effort, then USVs are self-generated, self-tested, self-applied work."

27/ "As we can see from the (Ukr) Magura, it is a Starlink (that is essential) - apart from Starlink, there is no real technology there, everything is done at the level of a radio club. Starlink is the holy grail, the center of all over-the-horizon weapons."