1/5 #Week18 NFL gives cover for Vegas to recoup its Christmas losses. Even then, “Steamers” –dogs getting majority public support – were 0-7 past 2 weeks, so undersupported faves near top
*=Ernie ~=Vegas play <50% 1. BRONCOS~ -8.5 Chiefs* Rule 1 Broncos v heavily-bet KC backups
2/5 2. PACKERS* -9.5 Bears~ Rule 1 Packers usually dominate Bears. 3. Seahawks~ -0.5 RAMS* Rule 1 Seahawks play Rams backups 4. CARDINALS~* -0.5 49ers R 1 49ers unmotivated here. 5. TITANS~ -0.5 Texans* +0.5 Tho R 2 avoid for TN, they’re actually favored
3/5 6. STEELERS~ +2.5 Bengals* Pitts w/c past 3 v hot Bengals 7. EAGLES* -3.5 Giants~ Eagles ought to cover this even w backups 8. RAVENS* -17.5 Browns~ Rule 2 avoid for Browns despite huge # 9. Dolphins +1.5 JETS~* Tho Tua out, Rule 1 Jets appear done v motivated opponent
4/5 10. COLTS* -5.5 Jags~ Rule 1 Colts tho Jax w/c past 3 v. Indy 11. FALCONS -7.5 Panthers*~ Rule 5 due tie to fave. 12. PATRIOTS~ +2.5 Bills* Rule 1 Pats covered past 3 v Bills 13. LIONS* -2.5 Vikings R 3 due-beating run for MN probably ends here.
5/5 14. RAIDERS~ -5.5 Chargers* LV shows up at season's end. 15. BUCCANEERS* -13.5 Saints~ +13.5 Rule 1 Saints overmatched. 16. Cowboys~ +3.5 COMMANDERS* R1 Cowboys w/c past 3 v Skins
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Surprise dogs last prompted early bettors to lean dogs #week15 #NFL. Likely overreaction. 1. CHARGERS -3.5 Bucs 3Chargers easily better O & D, 3-0 v NFCS. Tho Bucs more due under Rule 1, Chargers just beat due 2x and are a Rule 3 take. Ernie agrees this is a “gimme.” 1/16
2. 49ERS -2.5 Rams Home Niners have #TNF presumption, are more due, usually handle Rams, and motivated by failure v Rams earlier. Both Ds weakish, LA slight QB edge. Public on #Rams after win v Bills. Was SF -6.5 season start. Ernie “sticking with” #49ers. 2/16
3. BRONCOS -4.5 Colts #Broncos have stat advantage over #Colts on D and are #Broncos rule 3 take again. Ernie agrees. 3/16
week 14 #NFL revised after final Saturday line review. Ernie has dogs Panthers Raiders Seahawks & Chargers; agree w 1st 2 only 1. VIKINGS -4.5 Falcons Sentimental Cousins play doused by facts. 2. Panthers +12.5 EAGLES Eagles fading cover Vegas is ginning play on. 1/6
3. DOLPHINS -6.5 Jets only 2 covers all year. 4. Raiders +7.5 BUCS Spread was +7.5 last Sun, +7 or +6.5 since. 5. TITANS -3.5 Jags Titans have historical edge + more due, but battle of stinkers. 6. Cardinals -2.5 SEAHAWKS Many like Sea but Vegas made Cards late fave. 2/6
7. Browns +6.5 STEELERS Public all over fave tho C won 2 weeks ago. 8. RAMS +4.5 Bills 60% Rams play at +3.5 overwhelmed at +4.5 after Bills rout of SF; back to Bills -3.5 after Stafford cleared. Stats/Ernie say Bills. siding w Vegas/Rams. 3/6
#week14 NFL selections 1. Bills -4.5 RAMS #Bills better O and D, #Rams #Stafford ankle sprain. 2. TENN -3.5 Jags #Titans usually handle #Jaguars in Nashville; as bad as they are have QB edge w TL out. 3. Chargers +3.5 CHIEFS #Chiefs still an avoid + Chargers have stat edge. 1/20
Also #Chargers Ernie's "upset special" as LAC "better team." 4. Miami -6.5 NY JETS #Jets getting some play, comparable on stats, and more due but #Dolphins have covered 3 straight v. NYJ, 2x easily LY. 5. VIKINGS -4.5 Falcons Mismatch on paper for #Vikings, but wary of 2/20
steady 60% play for #Falcons, who are an improving AVOID. 6. Panthers +12.5 EAGLES Stat mismatch for PHL but both are active due beaters w #Eagles alas being a fading cover, not optimal after 2 tough road WC. Ernie also sticks w #Panthers 3/20
#week13 NFL
Early dogs late faves 8-5 and will use again this week. Ranked per chance of cover. 1. BILLS -6.5 49ers Niners too injured. 2. PANTHERS +5.5 Bucs Ernie’s “upset special.” 3. Titans +5.5 COMMANDERS Skins have lost mojo. 4. RAVENS -2. 5 Eagles Ernie calls Ravens. 1/4
5. COWBOYS -4.5 Giants Yuck v. yuckier 6. Rams -2.5 SAINTS Ernie calls Saints & Vegas w him v more due Rams. 7. JETS +2.5 Seahawks - Flat visitor refuels Jets. 8. CHIEFS -12.5 Raiders Finally a cover when KC <40% 9. Steelers +2.5 BENGALS Spread says C, but P tough.
2/4
10. JAGUARS +5.5 Texans TL return. 11. Cardinals +3.5 VIKINGS Cards fluke L revenge. 12. FALCONS +1.5 Chargers LAC lost rule 3 mojo. 13. LIONS -10.5 Bears Both fading covers, so maybe dog Ernie and Vegas likes. Or maybe a blowout. 3/4
NFL #week12 in order (below)
@EarlsCard was revived to assist a family member for use in an employer-required #NFL office pool. “All good fun” is one outlook on the practice. “Builds camaraderie” and “stimulates competition and energy, leading to more output.”
Really? 1/24
Experience says it can easily become an addiction, and for what? Mental energy is misdirected from useful work. Competition can foster disdain more than love. No one likes being unjustly exposed as an #NFL non-expert when such expertise was not part of job description. 2/24
Most importantly, any form of #FantasyFootball more likely promotes *Vice* over *Virtue.* To those who recognize following the WILL of GOD and JESUS is a soul’s highest calling on Earth – and that VICE is against said Will – coercive NFL Pools violate religious rights. 3/24
@EarlsCard NFL #week12
NO. 1 Cardinals -0.5 SEAHAWKS
Cards Rule 3 due-beating TAKE. At 3 held to 10 and 5 to 20 pts or less, #Cardinals D is solid; #Seahawks 1-5 just OK. Murray 12-3 TD-Int also very good. Geno 11-11 so-so. Public leaning #Seahawks gives us confidence too. 1/21
Worth mentioning: Our NO. 10 pick, BROWNS +3.5 came thru for us and Vegas #TNF, as #Steelers tenous Rule 3 status trumped by Browns historical edge in Pound and homefield TNF status. 2/21
NO. 2: Broncos -5.5 RAIDERS Public onto #Broncos due beathers in last 2 making them a Rule 3 TAKE v #Raiders (who lost when due in Mia). Raiders D at 0-2 truly pathetic; Gardner so-so at 8-9. Broncos 4-8 D very good; Nix 14-6. Broncos ended 9 game LV win streak 16-38 in Den. 3/21