1/5 #Week18 NFL gives cover for Vegas to recoup its Christmas losses. Even then, “Steamers” –dogs getting majority public support – were 0-7 past 2 weeks, so undersupported faves near top
*=Ernie ~=Vegas play <50%
1. BRONCOS~ -8.5 Chiefs* Rule 1 Broncos v heavily-bet KC backups 2/5
2. PACKERS* -9.5 Bears~ Rule 1 Packers usually dominate Bears.
3. Seahawks~ -0.5 RAMS* Rule 1 Seahawks play Rams backups
4. CARDINALS~* -0.5 49ers R 1 49ers unmotivated here.
5. TITANS~ -0.5 Texans* +0.5 Tho R 2 avoid for TN, they’re actually favored

Surprise dogs last prompted early bettors to lean dogs #week15 #NFL. Likely overreaction.
1. CHARGERS -3.5 Bucs 3Chargers easily better O & D, 3-0 v NFCS. Tho Bucs more due under Rule 1, Chargers just beat due 2x and are a Rule 3 take. Ernie agrees this is a “gimme.” 1/16 2. 49ERS -2.5 Rams Home Niners have #TNF presumption, are more due, usually handle Rams, and motivated by failure v Rams earlier. Both Ds weakish, LA slight QB edge. Public on #Rams after win v Bills. Was SF -6.5 season start. Ernie “sticking with” #49ers. 2/16

week 14 #NFL revised after final Saturday line review. Ernie has dogs Panthers Raiders Seahawks & Chargers; agree w 1st 2 only
1. VIKINGS -4.5 Falcons Sentimental Cousins play doused by facts.
2. Panthers +12.5 EAGLES Eagles fading cover Vegas is ginning play on. 1/6 3. DOLPHINS -6.5 Jets only 2 covers all year.
4. Raiders +7.5 BUCS Spread was +7.5 last Sun, +7 or +6.5 since.
5. TITANS -3.5 Jags Titans have historical edge + more due, but battle of stinkers.
6. Cardinals -2.5 SEAHAWKS Many like Sea but Vegas made Cards late fave. 2/6

#week14 NFL selections
1. Bills -4.5 RAMS #Bills better O and D, #Rams #Stafford ankle sprain.
2. TENN -3.5 Jags #Titans usually handle #Jaguars in Nashville; as bad as they are have QB edge w TL out.
3. Chargers +3.5 CHIEFS #Chiefs still an avoid + Chargers have stat edge. 1/20 Also #Chargers Ernie's "upset special" as LAC "better team."
4. Miami -6.5 NY JETS #Jets getting some play, comparable on stats, and more due but #Dolphins have covered 3 straight v. NYJ, 2x easily LY.
5. VIKINGS -4.5 Falcons Mismatch on paper for #Vikings, but wary of 2/20

#week13 NFL
Early dogs late faves 8-5 and will use again this week. Ranked per chance of cover.
1. BILLS -6.5 49ers Niners too injured.
2. PANTHERS +5.5 Bucs Ernie’s “upset special.”
3. Titans +5.5 COMMANDERS Skins have lost mojo.
4. RAVENS -2. 5 Eagles Ernie calls Ravens. 1/4 5. COWBOYS -4.5 Giants Yuck v. yuckier
6. Rams -2.5 SAINTS Ernie calls Saints & Vegas w him v more due Rams.
7. JETS +2.5 Seahawks - Flat visitor refuels Jets.
8. CHIEFS -12.5 Raiders Finally a cover when KC <40%
9. Steelers +2.5 BENGALS Spread says C, but P tough.
2/4

NFL #week12 in order (below)
@EarlsCard was revived to assist a family member for use in an employer-required #NFL office pool. “All good fun” is one outlook on the practice. “Builds camaraderie” and “stimulates competition and energy, leading to more output.”
Really? 1/24 Experience says it can easily become an addiction, and for what? Mental energy is misdirected from useful work. Competition can foster disdain more than love. No one likes being unjustly exposed as an #NFL non-expert when such expertise was not part of job description. 2/24

@EarlsCard NFL #week12
NO. 1 Cardinals -0.5 SEAHAWKS
Cards Rule 3 due-beating TAKE. At 3 held to 10 and 5 to 20 pts or less, #Cardinals D is solid; #Seahawks 1-5 just OK. Murray 12-3 TD-Int also very good. Geno 11-11 so-so. Public leaning #Seahawks gives us confidence too. 1/21 Worth mentioning: Our NO. 10 pick, BROWNS +3.5 came thru for us and Vegas #TNF, as #Steelers tenous Rule 3 status trumped by Browns historical edge in Pound and homefield TNF status. 2/21

#TNF Eagles getting heavy play off #Cowboys romp, and TNF home teams generally have natural edge, but Skins are Rule 1 more due and have covered/pushed 3 of 4 v Phillly. 3.5 may seem like a steal but the low spread seems a hint to take the dog despite fears of blowout. No. 10. Packers -6.5 over #Bears at Soldier implausible a month ago but Bears are a Rukec2 AVOID v #Packers squad that has series domination back through #AaronRodgers. Risk is early game fave usually risky when public on board as here. No. 9.

Only 9-6 ATS last week. Top 6 have Ernie's concurrence.
1. CARDINALS -0.5 Jets Cards on Rule 3 due beating run
2. Titans +7.5 CHARGERS Titans more due improver; Chargers Rule 3 fading cover. Visitor Vegas play w mere 15% support.
3. Giants -4.5 PANTHERS Giants a Rule 2 improver. 4. Bills -4.5 COLTS both lost R3 mojo in last. Rule 5.
5. 49ers -6.5 BUCS Rule 5 due tie to fave.
6. Dolphins +2.5 RAMS Dolphins off Rule 2 list; now R1
7. CHIEFS -8.5 Broncos Chiefs Rule 1 due play.
8. BEARS -6.5 Patriots Bears Rule 1 due play.

EARL’S LEGENDARY DUE REPORT
#Week9 #NFL 10-6 last week. Ernie ’n Earl recognize Halloween week often produces has many inexplicable upsets. We agree on top 11, ordered w/ knowledge top 5 worth 65 pts, bottom 10 only 55. Ranked by believed likelihood of success. RULES at bottom. But 1st #TNF pick 14. JETS +1.5 Texans Jets a rule 2 AVOID but TAKE exception due to improvement v NE. #Texans lost Rule 3 mojo v Colts, are due +1, but stinking Jets far more due at +5. #Jets better D but O edge to the Houstons. Jets won 30-6 here last yr. Rule 1 to homer.

Week 8 NFL EARL'S DUE REPORT (in order)
Ernie (looks) and Earl (technicals) agree on Top 7
(The Legendary 5 Rules of Due at end)

1. BRONCOS -9.5 Panthers #Panthers remain a rule 2 AVOID. Nix (5-5 TD-Int) buoyed by strong #Broncos D. 2. CHARGERS -7.5 Saints #Saints remain Rule 2 AVOID v #Chargers, who had normal Rule 1 nondue cover loss in AZ.

week 7 #NFL EARL’S LEGENDARY DUE CARD
Ernie agrees w/ Top 7

1. BRONCOS -9.5 Panthers #Panthers remain a rule 2 AVOID. Nix (5-5 TD-Int) buoyed by strong #Broncos D.

2. CHARGERS -7.5 Saints #Saints remain Rule 2 AVOID v #Chargers, who had normal Rule 1 nondue cover loss in AZ. 3. Bears -2.5 COMMANDERS Both #Bears and #Commanders on due-beating runs. Tough to tell who’s more due, b/c of Skins semi-cover in Bal, so playing it as Rule 5 tie to fave, esp. since #Daniels has injured ribs and #Mariota inferior to Chic. rookie. Ds similar.

#week7 #NFL in order per Earl's Automatic Rules of Due (posted below)to aid beleaguered #NFLpool players
1. Eagles -3.5. GIANTS
#Eagles perfect due record and RULE 1 DUE PLAY. Ernie agrees. Only fear is dead flat v. #Giants after tough win, cause stats do not suggest blowout. 2. STEELERS +1.5 Jets Not buying Jets favoritism v #Steelers squad. Though stats similar, #Jets a RULE 2 AVOID.

3. JAGUARS -5.5 Patriots #Patriots a RULE 2 AVOID. Ernie also takes #Jaguars.

#NFLweek6 Earls Legendary due report. Presumption is more spread-due squad w 5 exceptions. 6 Rules total. Ranked 1-10 scale #TNF Seahawks +3.5 49ers #49ers SF a rule 5 avoid (McCaffery out) + #Seahawks rule 1 more due, overcoming home TNF advantage. Ernie/public= 49ers. 6 1/14 2/14 BEARS -2.5 Jags Equally due. #Bears beat due in last w margin increasing, good signs, but similarly #Jaguars on upsurge off 2 due covers. Will 3d straight @ Bears go same way? Ernie/public say yes. Rule 6 agrees. 3

For Top 5 play #TNF Falcons -1.5 & #Buccaneers both are due -1, defaulting this to a rule 6 fave no matter what. More importantly, Ernie likes #Falcons, the public is all over Bucs, meaning Vegas is with us. So all 3 signs point to Falcons. Plus they're home TNF, usually a help. Bills-1.5 TEXANS #Bills due beating streak came to crashing halt in Bal; #Texans yet to cover. Home on rule 2 avoid due losing streak. But also due improvers positioned to finally get the cover, having missed by just a few pts in last. Ernie likes Bills. cont.