Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too.

I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/

The Ukrainians are facing a stronger enemy. It's possible they achieve some tactical success with the element of surprise, and in the best case scenarios they may be able to enter some villages. In the big picture, however, the general situation will likely remain the same. 2/

The Ukrainians have lost more than half of the area in Kursk that they controlled at most in August-September 2024. Even if the new attacks were to advance ten kilometers, the battles would still be fought in the same general areas where fighting has been going on for months. 3/

It is very difficult to gather a force strong enough to make new operationally significant changes to the situation. Even if the Ukrainians switched focus towards Glushkovo, it would still be an attempt that has already failed once. 4/

Also, if the Ukrainians were to advance to Bolshoye Soldatskoye, they would be making gains in the furthest corners of the salient, which would stretch the frontline without widening the flanks, which the Russians have been gradually pushing back in the last few months. 5/

The offensive in Kursk is currently continuing even in a situation where positions in Donetsk are being constantly lost, and where the front is threateningly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk oblast. The tradeoff for committing more troops in Kursk can cost Ukrainian land. 6/

Overall, Kursk has also had its positive aspects recently. Despite the territorial losses, the Ukrainians have managed to entrench themselves in Kursk, shifting some of the fighting to the Russian soil. Kursk has also seemed to have become a more political issue for Russia. 7/

While the fighting has naturally tied Ukrainian forces, Russia has also brought quality units to the area, such as VDV. They've taken heavy losses while advancing relatively little this winter. Ukrainians likely want this to continue, which can explain the latest developments. 8/

Here's a couple of maps of how the Russians view the situation. According to various Russian channels, Ukrainians have made some initial success, but nothing very major has changed yet. 9/

t.me/divgen/61218
t.me/RVvoenkor/83908

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the developments in Russia and Ukraine. Our interactive map can be found here. 10/10

scribblemaps.com/maps/view/0911…