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Lawk Ghafuri Profile picture
@LawkGhafuri
Jan 5 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Iraq at a Crossroads with Trump’s Return 🧵

1/ Iraq stands at a critical crossroads following significant regional developments, mainly in Lebanon & Syria. Baghdad faces a daunting challenge: either meet US demands or risk severe consequences under a changing US administration.
2/ The US has intensified its focus on Iraq, urging Baghdad to address the future of Iran-backed armed groups and prevent Iran from leveraging Iraq as a regional corridor. These demands were reiterated during Secretary of State Blinken’s recent visit to Baghdad to meet Iraq’s PM.
3/ Despite ongoing discussions within Shiite parties, Iraq has yet to take decisive action against the armed groups. Shiite political parties are exploring solutions to mitigate regional tensions, seeking a “safe exit” to resolve the complexities surrounding Iran-backed factions.
4/ Notably, Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the National Wisdom Movement, revealed on Thursday that a message - allegedly from a secret envoy or Trump himself thru a call - warned Baghdad of US plans to target specific Iraqi armed factions.

english.aawsat.com/arab-world/509…
5/ Al-Hakim went further, claiming Washington plans to sanction Iraqi Shiite politicians within Coordination Framework but as leaders of pro-Iran armed groups & not politicians. This aligns with Trump’s strategy to intensify pressure on Iraq, aiming to curb Tehran’s influence.
6/ In addition, @SPGlobal reported that Trump might target Iraq’s oil sector with sanctions to counter Iranian dominance. For now, these warnings seem unaddressed by Baghdad, but the impact could be severe if action isn’t taken before Trump assumes office.
spglobal.com/commodity-insi…
@SPGlobal 7/ Iraqi PM is set to visit Tehran end of this week, some local media outlets reported that it is believed that Iraqi PM will meet senior Iranian officials. The discussion will also include the future of the Iran-backed armed groups presence in Iraq.

shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Al-Sud…
@SPGlobal 8/ While some speculate about systemic change in Iraq, such claims are unlikely. Iraq is a democratic country which sets it apart from Syria. Washington’s goal appears focused on reducing Tehran’s influence, not dismantling Iraq’s political system.
@SPGlobal 9/ Finally and simply - Iraq faces tough days ahead. As regional dynamics shift, Baghdad must decide: take proactive steps to “heal itself,” or brace for the repercussions of Trump’s return to the White House. The choice will define Iraq’s future.

End
@SPGlobal 10/ Update to this thread - Baghdad & Washington are preparing to hold another round of Higher Coordinating Committee meeting, as part of the US-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement.

The outcomes of these meetings will be interesting, especially given recent regional developments.

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More from @LawkGhafuri

Lawk Ghafuri Profile picture
Dec 31, 2024
1- The divisions within Iraq’s Shiite political factions over Syria reflect a broader shift that could shape the future of Iran-backed groups in Iraq. The Iraqi government & PMF lean toward normalizing relations with Syria’s HTS, seeing it as an imposed reality. More in this 🧵
2- In contrast, Iran-backed groups oppose this shift, fearing it could weaken their influence in Iraq. As Baghdad moves closer to normalization, the future of these armed groups hangs in the balance, with Washington pressuring Iraq to disarm them as part of its broader strategy.
3- The debate within Iraq’s Shiite factions goes deeper: some argue Iranian-backed groups presence draw regional tensions into Iraq. Others insist these groups are essential to Iraq’s security, especially with ISIS concerns mounting in Iraq after the change in Syria’s leadership.
Read 13 tweets
Lawk Ghafuri Profile picture
Dec 27, 2024
The recent visit of Iraq’s Intelligence Chief to Syria for a meeting with Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Jolani) underscores Iraq’s evolving regional strategy. This visit reflects key concerns regarding Syria’s instability & its impact on Iraq. Here is a 🧵 explaining the main key points.
1- Baghdad sought reassurance from Jolani over the protection of Sayyida Zaynab shrine. Amid rising violence targeting Alawite communities in Syria, the shrine’s safety is a sensitive issue. Any attack could escalate sectarian tensions & push Shiite armed groups cross into Syria.
2- An Iraqi senior official told me Baghdad conveyed to Jolani that any harm to the shrine would trigger significant consequences. This includes the potential mobilization of Iraqi Shiite armed groups, which Baghdad might struggle to restrain - Jolani provided the reassurances.
Read 9 tweets
Lawk Ghafuri Profile picture
Dec 25, 2024
1- What is happening in Iraq - mainly among Shiite political parties - is interesting and will soon make international headlines. But with all the attention on Syria, few are aware of the huge developments unfolding.

Short thread 🧵
2- Shiite political parties in Iraq are indecisive and confused on the future of Iranian-backed armed groups and the PMF, especially after Washington’s call to address these groups and resolve PMF’s role in Sunni-majority areas.

They remain paralyzed to make a decision.
3- The debate within Shiite politicians in Iraq is centered on PMF’s future. They believe it is challenging to dissolve the group in such a critical period, especially with the new leaders in Syria. They still have fear of ISIS resurgence in eastern Syria & spread into Iraq.
Read 6 tweets
Lawk Ghafuri Profile picture
Dec 22, 2024
The Night Before the Fall of Damascus 🧵

An Iraqi official shared with me the gripping story of how, the night Damascus was about to fall, Ankara assured Iraq that all Shiite shrines in Syria would be protected. In return, Baghdad stops pro-Iran groups from crossing into Syria.
1/ After Aleppo fell, during a trilateral meeting in Baghdad with the FM of Iraq, Syria, & Iran - Tehran requested that Iraq open its borders to allow 20,000 fighters from Iran-backed armed groups to cross into Syria to bolster Assad’s regime. Iraq outright declined this request.
2/ The situation worsened as Syrian rebels reached the gates of Damascus. On that night, Iraq’s Coordination Framework convened to discuss an alternative: sending 2,000 fighters from Kataib Hezbollah. Their mission would be to protect Shiite shrines, rather than to save Assad.
Read 10 tweets
Lawk Ghafuri Profile picture
Dec 19, 2024
1- The future of Iranian-backed armed groups in Iraq is a growing focal point of contention among Iraqi political actors and international stakeholders. The regional weakening of Tehran’s Axis of Resistance has placed Baghdad at the center of this struggle. Here’s a breakdown: 🧵
2- The decline began with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad (Jan 3, 2020), a pivotal moment that disrupted Iran’s control over its regional network. Soleimani was critical to managing Tehran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, PMF in Iraq, and Assad forces in Syria.
3- The recent heavy loss of Hezbollah leaders in Israeli airstrikes, combined with Assad’s fall in Syria, further undermines Iran’s strategy. The land bridge from Tehran to Beirut—key for arming Hezbollah and supporting Assad—has weakened. Iraq now serves as Iran’s last bastion.
Read 11 tweets
Lawk Ghafuri Profile picture
Dec 6, 2024
Thread 🧵 on why the indications of Assad’s fall are emerging from Baghdad

1/ Baghdad hosted a meeting between Iraq, Syria & Iran to discuss saving Assad’s regime. The joint statement, however, showed no concrete result. The lack of agreement reveals divisions over Assad’s fate.
2/ Baghdad rejected any military involvement in Syria, instead offering to assist through diplomatic efforts. This contrasts sharply with Iran, which has declared its intention to send military reinforcements to Syria to bolster the Assad regime.
3/ Assad’s survival in past battles relied heavily on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the strategic leadership of Qassem Soleimani. These groups were instrumental in key victories. But today, Iraqis are largely absent, leaving Assad vulnerable on the battlefield.
Read 8 tweets

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