Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq promised war - but delivered silence.

As Israel & Iran traded blows, militias in Iraq threatened U.S. bases with open escalation. Then suddenly… nothing!

I spoke with two officials in Baghdad. What I learned: one airstrike changed everything.🧵 1/ After the Israel-Iran ceasefire took hold and tensions slowly calmed across the region - I started digging.

A series of quiet conversations with top figures in Baghdad revealed why the loud threats from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq never turned into action.

Away from the headlines, Iraq is heating up. Anti-US sentiment is rising fast by pro-Iran crowds - and Iranian proxies are once again threatening to strike American bases if Washington enters the Israel-Iran war.

Here is a 🧵 on what is happening in Iraq 1/ Anti-US chants and protests are spreading fast in Iraq - no longer confined to Baghdad. Last night, demonstrations erupted in Karbala and Basra, calling for the expulsion of US troops as Israel enters its 5th day of airstrikes against Iran.

Triangle Alliance of Ankara-Erbil-Damascus 🧵

1/ Syria is entering a new era that will reshape the region. I believe a triangle alliance of Ankara-Erbil-Damascus would have a significant impact on the region, also serve the strategic interests of Ankara & Washington.

(Opinion) 2/ A strong partnership between Damascus and the Kurds in NE Syria, supported by Erbil, would benefit the region — and serve Washington interests by limiting Tehran’s ability to use Syria as a gateway for influence and access to Beirut.

Yesterday, Iraq’s FM told @Reuters that Baghdad is “hoping” to convince leaders of Iranian-backed groups to lay down their arms, join the Ministry of Defense, and integrate into the Iraqi national army.

The disarmament efforts is highly unlikely to materialize - here’s why🧵 1- Discussions on disarming Iranian-backed groups in Iraq gained traction after the fall of Assad in Syria. Around this time, Blinken visited Baghdad, urging Iraq’s PM to disarm these groups & prevent Iran from using Iraq as a route for arms transfer.

cnn.com/2024/12/13/pol…

One of the “titans” within Axis of Resistance in Iraq, Qais Al-Khazali, Secretary General of the Iranian-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq, gave an interview yesterday.

He focused on Syria’s recent change & its “ripple effects” on the region & Iraq.

Here are some noteworthy takeaways 🧵 1/ What happened in Syria in 2024 was fundamentally different from 2011. In 2011, it was terrorism & extremist movements; in 2024, it was political - a calculated agreement between Turkey, U.S., & Israel. Their goal: Toppling Bashar Al-Assad and cutting Tehran’s route to Beirut.

The Implications of Iraqi PM’s Visit to Tehran 🧵

1/ The one-day visit by Iraq’s PM to Tehran deserves closer scrutiny & attention - While global media fixates on Syria & Lebanon presidential elections, Iraqi PM’s meeting with Iran’s Khamenei reflects profound regional dynamics. 2/ The centerpiece of the visit was PM Sudani’s meeting with Khamenei. They discussed Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, the future of Iran-backed groups in Iraq, and finally the PMF (Hashd Al-Shaabi).

Khamenei’s message to Sudani was clear: the PMF must be preserved and strengthened.

https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/1877030522800443526

Iraq at a Crossroads with Trump’s Return 🧵

1/ Iraq stands at a critical crossroads following significant regional developments, mainly in Lebanon & Syria. Baghdad faces a daunting challenge: either meet US demands or risk severe consequences under a changing US administration. 2/ The US has intensified its focus on Iraq, urging Baghdad to address the future of Iran-backed armed groups and prevent Iran from leveraging Iraq as a regional corridor. These demands were reiterated during Secretary of State Blinken’s recent visit to Baghdad to meet Iraq’s PM.

https://twitter.com/middleeast/status/1867640893894803524

1- The divisions within Iraq’s Shiite political factions over Syria reflect a broader shift that could shape the future of Iran-backed groups in Iraq. The Iraqi government & PMF lean toward normalizing relations with Syria’s HTS, seeing it as an imposed reality. More in this 🧵 2- In contrast, Iran-backed groups oppose this shift, fearing it could weaken their influence in Iraq. As Baghdad moves closer to normalization, the future of these armed groups hangs in the balance, with Washington pressuring Iraq to disarm them as part of its broader strategy.

The recent visit of Iraq’s Intelligence Chief to Syria for a meeting with Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Jolani) underscores Iraq’s evolving regional strategy. This visit reflects key concerns regarding Syria’s instability & its impact on Iraq. Here is a 🧵 explaining the main key points. 1- Baghdad sought reassurance from Jolani over the protection of Sayyida Zaynab shrine. Amid rising violence targeting Alawite communities in Syria, the shrine’s safety is a sensitive issue. Any attack could escalate sectarian tensions & push Shiite armed groups cross into Syria.

1- What is happening in Iraq - mainly among Shiite political parties - is interesting and will soon make international headlines. But with all the attention on Syria, few are aware of the huge developments unfolding.

Short thread 🧵 2- Shiite political parties in Iraq are indecisive and confused on the future of Iranian-backed armed groups and the PMF, especially after Washington’s call to address these groups and resolve PMF’s role in Sunni-majority areas.

They remain paralyzed to make a decision.

The Night Before the Fall of Damascus 🧵

An Iraqi official shared with me the gripping story of how, the night Damascus was about to fall, Ankara assured Iraq that all Shiite shrines in Syria would be protected. In return, Baghdad stops pro-Iran groups from crossing into Syria. 1/ After Aleppo fell, during a trilateral meeting in Baghdad with the FM of Iraq, Syria, & Iran - Tehran requested that Iraq open its borders to allow 20,000 fighters from Iran-backed armed groups to cross into Syria to bolster Assad’s regime. Iraq outright declined this request.

1- The future of Iranian-backed armed groups in Iraq is a growing focal point of contention among Iraqi political actors and international stakeholders. The regional weakening of Tehran’s Axis of Resistance has placed Baghdad at the center of this struggle. Here’s a breakdown: 🧵 2- The decline began with the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad (Jan 3, 2020), a pivotal moment that disrupted Iran’s control over its regional network. Soleimani was critical to managing Tehran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, PMF in Iraq, and Assad forces in Syria.

Thread 🧵 on why the indications of Assad’s fall are emerging from Baghdad

1/ Baghdad hosted a meeting between Iraq, Syria & Iran to discuss saving Assad’s regime. The joint statement, however, showed no concrete result. The lack of agreement reveals divisions over Assad’s fate. 2/ Baghdad rejected any military involvement in Syria, instead offering to assist through diplomatic efforts. This contrasts sharply with Iran, which has declared its intention to send military reinforcements to Syria to bolster the Assad regime.

PM @masrour_barzani held a press conference today regarding the recent decision by Federal Supreme Court’s decision about #KRG’s oil and gas sector. Here is some highlights of the Prime Minister speech at the press conference. PM @masrour_barzani: The Federal Supreme Court can take decisions and amend the articles in the constitution, when the court itself is established constitutionally.